The Miami Beaches 2015 Year End Market Analysis
Hello and Happy New Year to All! I am a little late in publishing this; life & business sometimes gets in the way; but 2015 is now history (as well as January 2016!). However, data driven bloggers, like myself, and other analysts continue gathering and compiling their numbers (and putting their tax returns together like everyone else 😦 ) to make their reports. Heck, it takes whole quarters (or more) for our own government to figure out if & when we enter a recession (obviously they are too wealthy for our own good 😉 ).
I pulled the latest & greatest RPR Market & Neighborhood Reports for the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches and present to you the December 2015 versus December 2014 Report. Here are the results:
33139 – South Beach
While I cannot speak for other agents, my firm saw the most sales activity in South Beach compared to anywhere else on the Miami Beaches. South Beach continues to have a tremendous allure both nationally and internationally.
Median Est. Home Value: $397K (Up 4.2%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $237K (Down –5.2%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –13.4%) / Sales Volume: 95 (Down –26.9%)
The 33139 Market Activity Report for December 2015:
Sales volume continues to decline in year over year comparisons of each month; however, I am noticing signs of an inflection point in that the number of days listed before a property sells has dropped by nearly 14%. If sales volume in the coming months flattens (by comparison to the prior year’s month being compared) or rises, it could potentially indicate a good time to buy in 33139. My recommendations are based on long term (for the purposes of this blog); 5-10 years or more. This blog is not intended (unless I specifically say so in a specific article) for Buy/Flip or Buy/Rehab/Flip strategies to be implemented upon.
December 2015 Neighborhood Report for 33139
Listing Volume (number of homes currently listed for sale) is 50% higher than January of 2013. This means there is a much greater number of choices available to the buyer. While oceanside condos are holding steady, a now 13 month long correction in ask prices for homes being listed continues. In addition, I recall 2 & 3 years ago there not being a large amount of high-end rentals available anywhere on the beaches during the October-April season. This season I did a quick search on MLS spanning all 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches for rentals that range between $7000 and $10000 dollars per month and found more than 300 of them! Further analysis is necessary, but I am fairly confident the luxury market is taking a hit too.
33140 – North Beach
I am not quite sure what the problem is with this market but after several thousand dollars in Realtor.com advertising to acquire buyers for this zip code, I have yet to even show a property in this zip code over the past 2 quarters! As a result I am on the verge of dropping it all together and seeing if I can buy another slot elsewhere. Perhaps my luck will change? With that said, here are the December 2015 versus December 2014 numbers:
Median Est. Home Value: $481K (Up 2.1%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $377K (Up 5%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –24.7%) / Sales Volume: 49 (Down –10.9%)
The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33140:
Clearly a rebound is occurring in this area (and I do happen to love the area personally…it just has not been my best zip code this year). Sales volume has started to flatten (as I mentioned earlier how this might be a good thing) compared to prior month comparisons, where it was off 50% year over year, and the average number of days a property is listed before it sells has plummeted by 25%. This is great news for Sellers in this market and a potential warning to Buyers who are looking.
Listing Volume is 50% higher than it was during the same time period in 2013, however, over that same period of time home values and asking prices have remained stable / mostly unchanged. This is an area that is currently undergoing many changes in terms of both demographics, new construction, and rehabilitation of older buildings. I believe it represents a great investment opportunity and it is genuinely a very safe, beautiful area to live.
33141 – North Bay Village & Atlantic Heights
This area, in my opinion, represents one of the greatest values anywhere for the location alone. The median home value is 100,000+ dollars less than ANYWHERE else on the Miami Beaches. Average Income Families can actually afford to buy and live here! I think it is grossly undervalued relative to it’s long term (5-10 years) potential. In addition, it has a wonderful “small town” / “village” feel & appeal. New construction is on the rise, and that will absolutely, at some point, begat more assemblage deals for the real estate brokers and developers; and ultimately this area will begin to resemble the other 4 zip codes. My recommendation is to buy, hold/rent and buy often.
Median Est. Home Value: $271K (Up 10.7%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $185K (Down –22.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 95 (Down –18.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Down –38.1%)
The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33141:
Once again, listing volumes are over 50% higher than two years prior, sales volume is lower than any time over the past 2 years, and the median listing price is substantially lower, which I attribute to an increase in the number of 1 and 2 bedroom homes in older buildings that quite probably need either rehabilitation or demolition. I believe this area is two or three real estate cycles from achieving a peak in greatness and desirability; but I would hesitate to call investment here speculation given the values I have personally found, shown and sold in this area (I will not be discontinuing this zip code with Realtor.com if that tells you anything). To boot, the neighborhood is wonderfully better than it was 10 years ago. Change is happening; but as we all know in real estate, it happens over years, not days or weeks.
The 33141 Neighborhood Report:
33154 – Bal Harbour
Certainly one of the most desirable zip codes to live in within the continental United States. Bal Harbour represents the epitome of affluence with a far more conservative appeal than anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.
Median Est. Home Value: $648K (Up 22%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $387K (Down –7.8%) / Median Days in RPR 119 (Down –9.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Up 17.6%)
This is perhaps the best report and comparison I have seen since I began reporting on the beaches just after the market correction began. 33154 has begun to rebound strongly. Sales Volume is up, Average Number of Days on the Market is down, and the estimated home values have rocketed by 22% in a single year! In my opinion, an investment in Bal Harbour is akin to buying a “blue chip stock”. Even during the recent correction it suffered the least, and it appears that it is the first to begin rallying back.
The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33154:
Sales Volume, when compared over a 2 year period is above average. Listing Volume is also higher than at any time in the prior two years, however, median listing prices have sharply moved higher since July of 2015. Median listing prices continue to find support at 375k.
33160 – Sunny Isles, Golden Beach & Eastern Shores
HOME…that is what I am proud to call Sunny Isles Beach. Ever since I was a child and my family would vacation here (when it was still North Miami Beach), I always knew I wanted to live on this little stretch of sand. Back in those days, this was one of the seediest places in all of Miami-Dade County. However, in the past 20 years Sunny Isles Beach has seen one of the greatest booms and gentrifications in US History (I am willing to bet). Where once stood small, dilapidated hotel/motels, now stand massive, high-end towers reaching into the sky. Where rag tag shops used to litter the shopping centers now stand 3 star or better restaurants and designer boutiques, not to mention the sheet concentration of real estate brokerages here is pretty amazing!
Median Est. Home Value: $352K (Up 3.6%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $225K (Down –9.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 113 (Down –11.7%) / Sales Volume: 97 (Down –32.6%)
The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33160:
Considering where the numbers started when I began blogging the Miami Beach Market Pulse, 33160 appears to have improved somewhat. Sunny Isles Beach was particularly sensitive to the investment appetites of foreign nationals, and as the Dollar appreciated against every other currency in the world, this led to a drying up of buyers in the general market. It also exposed foreign buyers to a greater debt load as the dollars they borrowed became more expensive to repay (and this is an ongoing fact that has not fully resolved or come to a head yet). In addition, a great deal of foreign economies are net commodity exporters; and since commodities of virtually every kind (oil, sugar etc) have crashed, I imagine business is not booming the way it was in the prior decade as commodities soared before and during the mortgage crisis.