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Special 3rd Quarter Report – The Miami Beaches Market Pulse & Foreclosure Watch Reports – September 2016

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA Licensed Real Estate Broker & REALTOR® Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA, Licensed Real Estate Broker & REALTOR®, 1-800-798-9192 ext. 333, License #: BK3252123, Metro International Investments, MLS: http://REBroker.Miami
Miami Beach

Miami Beach

Welcome to the 3rd Quarter Wrap-up Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  In this edition I provide the usual data and analysis on a zip code by zip code basis, and also provide the latest numbers for the distressed asset market for each zip code, and the county as a whole.  I have been documenting a correction on the Miami Beaches for nearly 2 years now and believe that the market remains on a precipice.  I do not see this as Doom & Gloom however.  Markets that are moving, whether up or down, provide for numerous opportunities; it is when markets are plateauing and/or stagnant, where Buyers & Sellers are unable to bridge the divide between Bid & Ask, that things look most dire.  Over the prior 18+ months I have been documenting a strong trend higher in Listing Volume and a strong trend lower in MLS Sales Volume.  These trends have both continued through the 3rd Quarter of 2016 and are joined by a massive uptick in foreclosure filings throughout Miami-Dade County.  This month, I believe we have reached a possible inflection point in the markets.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $392K, Up 0.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $260K, Up 2%; Median Days in RPR: 135 Up 2.3%; Sales Volume: 9, Down –92%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33139, Real Estate Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33139, Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

September 2016 represents the lowest MLS Sales Volume in a single month in the history of South Beach from what I am able to find online.  Listing Volume has set a new 3-year high as more Sellers come to market.  Median Sales Price for the month was substantially higher than average due to a larger, high end sale which closed during this reporting cycle.

Foreclosure Watch – 33139

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 74 Foreclosure Filings according to County Records.  This is more than double the 36 foreclosure filings over the same time period in 2015, and nearly three times the activity seen in 2012 (22 foreclosure filings) and 2011 (28 foreclosure filings).  Over the same time period in 2013 & 2014 there were 45 & 48 foreclosure filings respectively.

While 74 foreclosure filings for this year and time period is very high and does not yet represent a trend, by itself as a data point, it should be noted that at the height of the mortgage crisis in 2010, zi code 33139 saw 97 foreclosure filings during the Jan-through-Sept time period.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $542K,  Up 11.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $465K, Up 22.4%; Median Days in RPR: 134, Up 9.8%; Sales Volume: 6, Down –91%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33140, Real Estate Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33140, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

Similar to 33139, MLS Sales were in single digits this month for Mid-Beach, 33140.  Estimated Home Values, Listing Prices & Sales Prices were all up across the boards, however, this was accomplished on very weak sales volume; and in my experience, these numbers cannot respectively represent the true health of the market.

Foreclosure Watch 33140

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 38 foreclosure filings in 33140, up approximately 25% from the year before (28 filings in 2015), matching its 2014 total for the same time period and placing it within 12% of matching the 2010 high of 42 foreclosure filings.  In 2013, 2012, and 2011 there were 18, 13 & 9 foreclosure filings respectively.  Definitely see my June 2016 Distressed Market Analysis for an explanation of specific events over the time period of 2008-2016

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $269K, Up 1.8%; Median Est. Listing Price: $269K, Up 19.3%; Median Days in RPR: 114, Up 2.7%; Sales Volume: 10, Down –87.5%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33141, Real Estate Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33141, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 Sales Volume barely crossed into double digits this month and Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.  Over 2/3rd of home sales the past 12 months have been under 350K in zip code 33141.  I have said it before and will reiterate, for the location, you will not see better deals anywhere on Miami Beach than in this zip code.

Foreclosure Watch 33141

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 60 foreclosure filings in 33141, effectively DOUBLING 2015’s total of 31 filings.  This years total remains 33% off the 2010 total of 82.  2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had 16, 42, 32, & 22 filings respectively.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $678K, Up 7.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $510K, Up 21.7%; Median Days in RPR: 132, Down –4.3%; Sales Volume: 3, Down –91.7%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33154, Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33154, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 33154 registered a whopping THREE closed sales this September 2016 with the lowest sales volume in easily more than 3 years while listing volume has continued its march higher towards one thousand (1000) active listings.

Foreclosure Watch 33154

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 17 foreclosure filings, roughly 25% more than the 2015 total for the same time period of 13 and still substantially lower from 2010, where a staggering 40 foreclosure filings loomed in what is otherwise one of the wealthiest and most prosperous zip codes in the United States.  2011, 2012, 2013 & 2014 had totals of 8, 13, 12 & 13 foreclosure filings over the same time period respectively.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $360K, Up 2.2%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $320K, Up 23.6%; Median Days in RPR: 147, Up 11.4%; Sales Volume: 19, Down –86.9%

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach, 33160, Real Estate Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach, 33160, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Foreclosure Watch 33160

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 83 foreclosure filings, more than doubling the 2015 total of 33 for the same time period.  While still 50% from the 2010 high of 122 foreclosure filings during the Jan-Sept time frame, the move comes has a substantial surprise given the 2011-2014 numbers which ranged from 20 filings in 2011, 46 in 2012, and then “stability” seemed to be 35 (2013), 31 (2014) and 33 (2015).

Foreclosure Watch – Miami-Dade County

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 5250 foreclosure filings in Miami-Dade County, nearly double the 2797 that were filed over the same time period in 2015.  The Miami Beaches are effectively paralleling the rest of Miami-Dade County and are experiencing the same macroeconomic and microeconomic forces as the rest of the county.  The 2016 year-to-date totals do not touch the 2010 YTD total of 8949 foreclosure filings during the first 3 quarters of 2010.  2011 followed with 1306 as the court system and legal issues pertaining to “robo mortgages” brought our judicial system to a crawl; but in 2012, the backlog began getting worked through with 5036 filings and another 3847 foreclosure filings in 2013 over the same time period.  In 2014, there were 2595 foreclosure filings during the first 3 quarters of the year.

Conclusion & Forecast

September 2016 in the Miami Beaches has set, what could be, historic lows in terms of sales volume in ALL 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches. Furthermore, listing volume continues to push higher across all Miami Beach real estate markets and is currently at 3-5 year highs throughout the Miami Beaches.  Furthermore, substantial foreclosure activity has resumed throughout the 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches (as well as Miami-Dade County as a whole) and these facts are in stark contrast to the picture our government paints for us with a constant diatribe about the “economic recovery” we are all supposedly benefitting from.  I have published before, and will soon again, that the recent “recovery” has been entirely stimulus reduced and has no real basis in fact, but that is for another article.  These market conditions cannot endure forever.  It is scenarios like these that lead to sudden shifts in trend when Sellers realize that their prices are too high and either lower their prices to clear the market, or withdraw from the market all together; especially when other forces, such as interest rates going up or the general availability of credit drying up, help make the decision for them.  I have a large number of Buyers awaiting buying opportunities in the market; and I believe that time is rapidly approaching at the retail level.  My firm is already servicing more than 100 short sales and several hundred investors who Buy-Rehab-Flip and bid on these distressed assets.

With the specter of higher interest rates looming on the horizon, I believe retail asset prices will have to come down across the boards; and CAP rates (for leases both residential & commercial) are already beginning to see upward pressure (meaning ask prices are trending lower), a that trend will continue into the foreseeable future.

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About Christopher J. Lazaro (47 Articles)
I am a Licensed Real Estate Broker specializing in Residential Real Estate transactions from Downtown Miami, through the Miami Beaches and into Fort Lauderdale along the US1 Corridor and East. Whether you are a First Time Home Buyer, an Institutional Buyer, or Private Investor, I will be happy to provide you a consultation to evaluate your real estate investment goals. I can be reached at 1-800-798-9192 ext. 333. My MLS Website can be found at http://REBroker.Miami. I am a Qualifying Broker for and partner in, Metro International Investments.

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