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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – May 2017 Results

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA Licensed Real Estate Broker & REALTOR® Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA, Licensed Real Estate Broker & REALTOR®, 1-800-798-9192 ext. 333, License #: BK3252123, Metro International Investments, MLS: http://REBroker.Miami

Christopher J. Lazaro’s MLS Website is REBroker.Miami

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

As the Spring ended and Summer began, the month of May saw some interesting changes in data.  For example, the prior month, Miami Real Estate searches on the Internet were topped by foreign nationals in Brasil, but this month, Colombia has taken the top spot.  I asked a friend of mine why this might be, as only a couple of years ago it was my understanding Colombia was exploding with business opportunities.  He believes the country is likely to be the next nation is South America to follow Brasil, Argentina, and Venezuela in terms of shifting to a more socialist system, and by consequence, likely substantial corruption.  We will see how that situation unfolds, but one thing is clear, there is a lot of Colombian nationals searching South Florida for real estate opportunities presently.

Also in the news, after Memorial Day violence, there is a growing demand by locals and the politicians to do away with Urban Beach Week.  This has been an ongoing issue as seemingly every year there are dozens of dozens of arrests (in 2012 there were 431 arrests), dozens of guns confiscated, etc.  It is unfortunate that those who come here for that weekend seeking only music, sand, sun & fun are accompanied by armed, gangster-like ( I would not want to insult gangsters, particularly those of the days of Capone, who were reputedly gentlemen…murderers, yes, but well-dressed and well-mannered gentlemen overall).  I am all for putting an end to this weekend as it is common knowledge many locals, both renters and owners, literally flee the area ahead of this week/weekend for no other reason than this event.

I continue to try and improve the format of my articles.  If you have any suggestions (or requests), please let me know!  Now, onto the data!

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33139

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33139

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

There is a lot of construction in South Beach (and I will be covering these projects in a forthcoming issue); luxury, ultra-luxury, and a more “affordable” upper-end (500K+) class of assets being built and many of these are being listed the moment the building comes online, further driving listing volume to the upside.  Sales Volume has decreased, in large part to the well-known Summer Slowdown in real estate sales.  Also, people are not willing to overpay anymore just for the privilege of being on South Beach.  The Buyer’s Market continues and I am beginning to see some good opportunities come, and go quickly while overpriced assets languish on the market for an average of 4 months (twice the national average).

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33140

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33140

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is stalled at a 3-year high.

I love this area of the Miami beaches and recommend it highly.  The west side of this area is one of the most beautiful and family-oriented neighborhoods in all of the Miami Beaches.  A median listing price of 390K warrants any logical buyer to start viewing properties NOW as I do not see this phenomenon persisting for very long.

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33141

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33141

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Median List price is also at a NEW 3-year low.  I have been urging customers to consider buying in this area as I believe it represents the best and most affordable area-of-opportunity for an average family to own a piece of the Miami Beaches, and frankly, the location is superior for the working person who has to commute on a daily basis.  At $200-$300 per existing square foot, you cannot build anything for that cheap anymore!  I do not expect the market to move lower.  For some time there were assets selling in the low 200s per square foot for Class B condominium units, but those have grown fewer and more far between.  This is a Buyer’s Market and I think the waiting is over.  If you are waiting for lower prices on the retail (non-distressed) market, you will be both disappointed and be living elsewhere.

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33154

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33154

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3-year high.

Despite a spate of buying in the prior few months which drove sales volume higher (albeit to the 3-year average), it appears Bal Harbour is not immune to the Summer Slowdown, posting a new 3-year low in sales volume and a new 3-year high in listing volume.  Keep in mind, the median list price is well within its 3-year range AND Bal Harbour continues to be one of the most sought after places to live in the United States.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33160

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33160

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3-year high.

I have called Sunny Isles Beach “Home” for nearly 8 years and I am looking forward to having many more years as a resident here.  The City of Sunny Isles Beach has been undergoing a massive transformation since 1997 when the City first incorporated and was no longer part of the City of North Miami Beach.  I am looking forward to, hopefully sooner than later, enjoying some years here without an endless stream of construction vehicles and lane closures; and, in approximately 2 years, when the City completes its endeavor to sink all the power lines under the A1A and replace the ugly streetlamps with more aesthetically pleasing, and perhaps innovative lighting along the corridor.

Sales Volume is down and Listing Volume is up, however, more than HALF of all homes sold in the past year (over 300) have been under 600K.  There are still plenty of existing construction bargains (in my opinion) to be had.

Summary

Is it a good time to buy or sell?

This is the most commonly asked question of me.  It should be noted that the average time on market for listings ticked down by as much as 12% in all zip codes.  This could be an indicator that certain asset classes have reached their inflection points in the market, the point where Sellers have become more realistic with their asking prices and Buyers are coming back into the market as a result.

The overall market continues to correct slowly, and it remains to be seen whether or not this trend will worsen; as it stands right now it has been very slow and gradual; but painful enough to drive many Realtors from the Beaches in search of more active/easier markets to compete in; or, in some cases, move on to greener pastures in other fields.  However, if the US Dollar should weaken against the major currencies of the world, expect a jump in prices as Foreign Direct Investment will likely become resurgent as it did between 2010 and 2013.  As of late, the Dollar is well off its post-election highs, and some economists are predicting the Dollar will see new historical lows in as early as the next 1-2 years.

I believe that in some markets where the trend is up, if you are considering selling, it is always better to sell into a trend (or “too early” as Warren Buffet says); and if you are looking to buy, I would consider looking at markets that have corrected to their 3+ year averages or below to look for opportunities AND also consider price per square foot to buy versus to build.  There are a great number of opportunities to buy in the Miami Beaches, right now, to buy for a lot less than the cost to build new.

 

Noteworthy Articles & Studies from May 2017

  1. National Association of Realtors Commercial Real Estate Report – May 2017 – This is a 6MB download with an extensive analysis on emerging trends & risks in the Commercial Rel Estate Market – https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2017/2017-commercial-real-estate-alert-05-17-2017.pdf
  2. The Miami Association of Realtors Market Update:  Single Family Homes in Miami-Dade County showed another increase in sales in April.  As I have been commenting, the Condo Market is a mess, and this is weighing down the numbers for the Beach-centric reports I publish monthly, but single-family homes are a very strong market (56% jump in Luxury Single-Family Homes Sales!!!) right now making it a Seller’s Market for that asset class.  http://www.miamire.com/news/news/releases/2017/05/24/miami-single-family-home-sales-increase-again-in-april
  3. Luxury Condo Sales Slowing – http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/04/12/sales-slowing-down-miami-luxury-real-estate-market/
  4. In May, Colombia was the Top Country Searching for Real Estate in Miami: http://www.miamire.com/news/news/releases/2017/06/08/colombia-tops-all-countries-searching-miami-real-estate  This article lists the Top 10 Countries searching for real estate in Miami; dated June 8th, 2017.
About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

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About Christopher J. Lazaro (51 Articles)
I am a Licensed Real Estate Broker specializing in Residential Real Estate transactions from Downtown Miami, through the Miami Beaches and into Fort Lauderdale along the US1 Corridor and East. Whether you are a First Time Home Buyer, an Institutional Buyer, or Private Investor, I will be happy to provide you a consultation to evaluate your real estate investment goals. I can be reached at 1-800-798-9192 ext. 333. My MLS Website can be found at http://REBroker.Miami. I am a Qualifying Broker for and partner in, Metro International Investments.

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