The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – March 2017 Results

Sunrise on Miami Beach
Sunrise on Miami Beach

Welcome to the March 2017 edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse, by yours truly, Christopher J. Lazaro, Licensed Real Estate Broker.  I have lived in Florida for the past 15 years, most recent 8 years of which I have lived in the Miami Beaches with the A1A, Collins Avenue, just outside my doorstep.  In that time I have witnessed the continued transformation of the Miami Beaches as new towers go up, old buildings being rehabilitated and repurposed, and even the complete destruction of small shopping centers to make way for parks & green space.  Since I have lived on the beach, I have watched rents skyrocket, even recently as the glut of luxury inventory continues to build and loom over the market, in the same manner, the shadow of the towers loom over the beach in the afternoon.  What is interesting, however, is we are in a very similar circumstance to where we were in 2006 & 2007 when renting a unit on the beach was far less expensive than the cost of ownership.  In economic terms, from an Opportunity Cost perspective, why own on the beach at all when renting, despite 7 consecutive years of rent increases (sometimes substantial), is by far and away the more financially sensible option?  Peter Schiff, known economist, self-made millionaire, and CEO of EuroPacific Capital & EuroPacific Bank, pointed out this very paradigm (rents versus the cost of home ownership) just before the collapse of the prior real estate market.  I subscribe to Peter Schiff’s YouTube Channel and recommend it.

Do not get me wrong, while I am a “Bear” on the higher-end condominium market, there remain excellent opportunities to be had on the Miami Beaches, one just needs to know what to look for and where.  In addition, the growing inventory of new and newer condominiums on the resale market will eventually become heavy enough to break through their current Price Support Levels and towards more sensible and affordable price levels.  Listing Volume continues it’s 3-year climb and Sales Volume is so low that it has forced many Realtors to find greener pastures elsewhere.  I expect in some cases properties will eventually trade at levels at or lower than their cost to build.  Don’t just take it from me, The Daily Business Review did a recent article on the subject on February 1st, 2017 entitled “2,550 For Sale: Miami Sees Record Luxury Condo Glut”.  This article comes on the heels of numerous others discussing similar circumstances in Downtown Miami; Wolf Street published “In Miami Condo Glut, Preconstruction Resale Market Freezes Up” and following that article from September of last year, there was another, published in the Miami Herald, on March 17th entitled “The number of new downtown Miami condos will surge this year — and then fall“.

Spring is in the air, and as we head further into April I am excited by the prospect of at least one large commercial sale on Ocean Drive my team and I have been working for months on.  Whether the market is going up or down, the fact remains that the Miami Beaches are, and will continue to be, one of the most desirable locations to live and invest in for the foreseeable future!  Now, onto the reporting for the Month of March 2017!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & the Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The Median Sales Price has been buoyed by higher than average real estate sales.  The average property is listed on the MLS for 4 months before it sells!

Click here to see Active Real Estate Listings in South Beach & the Venetian Islands. 

33140 – Mid-Beach

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Miami Beach Listings in Mid-Beach, 33140.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Miami Beach Listings in North Beach & North Bay Village in 33141. 

33154 – Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume returning to a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Miami Beach Listings in Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island in 33154. 

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Listings in Sunny Isles Beach, 33160.

This concludes my report for March 2017 versus March 2016.  It appears the decline in the market is largely centered on condominiums as single family housing remains very strong in Miami-Dade County at large.  For the time being, renting, or owning a single family home appears to be the most financially sensible options available to the prospective new resident of the Miami Beaches.  If you have any questions or would like to be shown potential new homes or investments in the Miami Beaches, feel free to contact me anytime.  1-800-798-9192 ext. 333.

Yours truly,

Christopher J. Lazaro

Licensed Real Estate Broker

Metro International Investments

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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – February 2017 Results

Miami Beach
Aerial View of Miami Beach

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach


Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Nothing new here.  My firm has two listings in South Beach and has had these for over a year.  Price reductions have finally be permitted, but not enough to generate interest in, what is still, overpriced real estate.  It is a Buyer’s Market and will continue to be so into the foreseeable future.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Sales Price vs Sales Volume ticked higher due to well above average closing prices on some high-ticket properties, but this does not change the fact that Listing Price is declining as Listing Volume increases.  Sales Volume continues to diminish.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

I continue to reiterate my position on 33141.  I believe this is the last vestige of affordability for the average to above average earner(s).  There are very good buying opportunities here for people with 5-10 year investment time horizons.  Listing Prices continue to decline and Sales Volume is way down; there are Sellers ready to make a deal.  Call me for an appointment!

 33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands


Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

We are coming off January’s uptick; Listing Volume continues its northward climb, Sales Volume is heading back lower.  I expect the Bal Harbour Market will re-synchronize with the rest of the Miami Beaches Real Estate Market.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Listing Volume inched higher while Sales Volume dropped further.  Many of the new listings are coming out of new/newer buildings that were recently completed.  I believe we are going to see a mass exodus, dwarfing the current trend, from overpriced luxury and ultra luxury condo assets.  Between the taxes and the condo association fees, it is impossible to recover an investment in any of these as asset appreciation cannot possibly increase in value enough and fast enough; especially in light of even more, newer, capacity coming online.

The Miami Association of REALTORS® publishes a market update themselves called Market Focus.  For the Miami-Dade County area in February, this is the South Florida Market Focus Update for February 2017.

Updated: The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – January 2017 Results

For most tourists this is one of the happiest sites of their whole visit.

Updated the Link (sorry for the double post!) It was a very busy 1st quarter for me and now I find myself with 3 months of catching up on my blog (I will, however, date the reports appropriately on my blog)!  January appears to be little different than the prior months with Sales Volume(s) at 3-year lows and Listing Volume(s) pushing new 3-year highs.  The majority of the issue, in my opinion, is the condo market on the beach.  We are, and have been for quite some time, in a Buyer’s Market for condominiums.  I also believe we are far too overbuilt on the luxury side and underbuilt for housing that even above average income earners can afford.  The structural imbalances I perceive in the market are bound to correct, perhaps drastically, in the coming 1-2 years.  With that said, on with the data!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 I will reiterate my comments about this zip code.  In my opinion, this is the best
area for the money to buy in if you want to live in the Miami Beaches.  I know several
buildings that are trading at half the cost of their replacement value.  Call me for 
appointments and showings!

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume has spiked higher for a 2nd consecutive month.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

There was a flurry of activity in Bal Harbour, a difficult market to predict,
as several large 7 figure transactions occurred, which skews the Median Sales 
Price Chart substantially, as well a considerable number of sales UNDER the 
Median Estimated Home Value (200K+ under).  There appears to be a healthy 
number of sales in Pending, and these will likely show up in the next report.
However, there were a considerable number expired listings this month, and 90% 
of the time this occurs because the home is OVER PRICED relative to the supply 
& demand factors which ultimately effect comparable properties by which these 
expired listings were being judged.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Again we see a spike in the Sales Price versus Sales Volume chart due to several 7 figure closings. A very large number of listings expired in January; a sign that Seller’s have not woken up to the fact that their property is not nearly as valuable as they believe it is. Supply continues to grow and demand remains in a weakening state.

Thank you for reading another edition of The Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  I am going to publish February & March’s results shortly.  Also check back for a couple of Special Edition Reports I have been working on as I track the Distressed Asset Market Trends and, very soon, I will be examining the trends in the Commercial Real Estate Market of the Miami Beaches.

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

Distressed Market Edition: The Miami Beaches Market Pulse: June 2016 – 1st Half of the Year Report, Part 2 of 2

Lis Pendens Filings are UP on the Miami Beaches!
Lis Pendens Filings are UP on the Miami Beaches!

 

The first half of the year has begun to demonstrate a substantial shift towards a spike, and potentially continued growth, in the Distressed Market.  Note that I am saying “spike”, as at least one to two more data points would really be needed to see a marked change in the inclination of the overall foreclosure trend (and by then, it will be too late though to do anything about it).  In this dataset I go back to as far as my Tax Record Application, provided by the Miami Association of Realtors, allows: 2008.  Prior to 2007/2008, either the computer’s database records do not go back that far, or Lis Pendens filings were not specifically tracked until then.  Regardless, with nearly 10 years of data, covering the very beginnings of the prior distressed market until present, there is a disturbing increase in filings throughout the Miami Beaches.

For the most part I am displaying data and encourage my readership to draw their own conclusions, but I have provided commentary in places so as to properly set the context (as best as I can for the purposes of this article) of the time period as a backdrop for the actual number of foreclosures occurring in, what are, 5 of the wealthiest and most desired zip codes in the United States.  Please note I have pulled data on many other areas in the Southeast Florida area; with few exceptions thus far in my experience, the results for those areas parallel those below.

To provide a better frame of reference, and perspective, to the data-by-zip code below, I am providing this Historical Key, chart of the US Dollar, and Commentary to historical & present events in the Macro Economy:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) 1974 to Present
The US Dollar Index (DXY) 1974 to Present – Source: MacroTrends.Net

Year    |  Event(s) & Commentary

2008 |  The single biggest set of financial beatings in history begin!  Unprecedented institutional actions are implemented in an effort to restore confidence in the financial system and prevent a global financial system collapse.  By comparison, the Savings & Loan Crisis of 1985-1995, + the Dot Com Bubble + the Enron / Worldcom disasters of the 2000-2002 era, combined, pale in comparison!  The largest bailouts and bankruptcies in US history begin with the  failure of two of the most storied US based investment banking firms, Bear Stearns & Lehman Brothers.

2009 |  Asset purchases by the Federal Reserve begin with extreme prejudice.  By the end of the year, 1.75 Trillion USD are on the Federal Reserve’s books, and more debt in the history of mankind is monetized than all previous civilizations combined….and they are just getting warmed up!

2010 |  Scandal (“robo-mortgages” / “robo signings”), unprecedented backlog of foreclosure filings, nationwide, in the courts, loan modifications, and tons of cheap money slow & dull the pain!  This drives the Dollar into the depths of Hell over the next couple of years, setting a new historic low exceeding the lows of the late 1970s, the mid-1990s and, of course, 2008; 2008 being a period of what nearly amounted to a complete loss of faith in the financial system and fiat currencies virtually everywhere.

2011 |  By the end of 2nd quarter 2011, nearly another 600 Billion Dollars worth of defaulted assets were purchased by the Federal Reserve  The Buying spree continued through the year while loan modifications (and related businesses) popped up everywhere.  Whole real estate brokerages became founded upon Short Sales & REOs.  Special access to Fannie Mae, HUD and Freddie Mac portfolios were granted to large institutional buyers leaving a multitude of smaller investors out in the cold and only able to select from what was getting listed by licensed brokerages.

2012 | The economic stimulus (economic heroin), and massive backlog in the courts as a result of both volume and scandal, continued to slow the number of foreclosures.  Globally however, money pours into the United States in the form of foreign direct investment.  With the resulting “cheap Dollar” coming off of a historic low, real estate in the USA, especially Florida, looks “cheap” and the wealthy of other nations, many of whom were seeking to escape Socialism, Communism, and Austerity Measures of all kinds in their own home countries, flee to US Assets and begin driving the Dollar up, along with asset prices across all industries.

2013 |  Continued talk of “improving economy”, and of a forthcoming “tapering” of the Quantitative Easing from the Federal Reserve,  build confidence in the Dollar driving it higher well into 2014, simultaneously beginning a driving up of actual carrying costs, via currency risk,of US Assets by foreign investors who borrowed.

2014 | The 3rd round of Quantitative Easing ends in October…the money printing subsides…(for now).

2015 | After nearly 24 months of talk by the Federal Reserve, in order to maintain confidence in the US Dollar, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in December 2015 by 25 basis points (0.25%) despite worsening, lackluster economic data.

2016 | Talks of additional rate hikes continue, however, by mid-2016 this appears to be a non-starter rate-hiking cycle.  Economic data continues to worsen, with record lows in the Workforce Participation Rate & the manufacturing indexes, an obvious spike in foreclosures, and what appears to be a looming sovereign debt crisis which, if a recent Federal Reserve Paper in favor of a 4th Round of Quantitative Easing comes to fruition, is a likely scenario.  As of right now, we as a nation are painted into a corner it seems.  There is a high probability, if the Federal Reserve chooses to do another round of Quantitative Easing (printing more money), a currency crisis will ensue (the value of the Dollar i.e. the Dollar’s purchasing power), will diminish in potentially spectacular fashion.  At the same time, if the Federal Reserve chooses to raise interest rates, this will crash the stock market and absolutely obliterate the bond market; it may also push the United States into a Sovereign Debt Crisis.

In the first scenario, more Quantitative Easing, Dollar Prices of real estate will increase substantially, but the purchasing power of those Dollars will simultaneously be diminished (i.e: while prices may rise, the cost of living will increase at a dramatically faster rate); this is bad for both prospective Buyers as well as Sellers.  In the second scenario, and this has happened throughout history, if interest rates are raised, real estate values will decline commensurate with the interest rate, and with respect to both Sellers and prospective Buyer-Investors, higher capitalization rates will be required in order for any particular asset to clear the market (this is very bad for Sellers who may end up under water as a result of declining prices).

 

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Year    |  Number of Foreclosure Filings

2008  | 10

2009  |  21 – 200% increase over the prior year.

2010  |  63 – 300% increase over the prior year.

2011 |  21 

2012 | 12

2013 |  33

2014 | 27

2015 | 28

2016 | 55UP 196% YTD versus the same time period in 2015! Uh oh…the drugs are wearing off…More “stimulus”?

 

33140 – Mid-Beach

Year    |  Number of Foreclosure Filings

2008 | 4

2009 | 18 – 450% increase year over year.

2010 | 26

2011 | 6

2012 | 8

2013 | 8

2014 | 16

2015 | 23

2016 | 21  Slightly down – but this could be considered within a certain standard deviation models as normal or, at best, “a slight downtick”.

 

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Year    |  Number of Foreclosure Filings

2008 | 5

2009 | 31

2010 | 44

2011 | 12

2012 | 26

2013 | 27

2014 | 21

2015 | 20

2016 | 31 – Up 150% from 2015!

 

33154 – Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands & Surfside

Year    |  Number of Foreclosure Filings

2008 | 4

2009 | 5

2010 | 21

2011 | 3

2012 | 5

2013 | 13

2014 | 7

2015 | 9

2016 | 11 – Up, but this could be considered within a certain standard deviation models as normal or, at worst, “a slight uptick”.

 

331460 – Sunny Isles Beach, Golden Beach & Eastern Shores

Year    |  Number of Foreclosure Filings

2008 | 14

2009 | 37

2010 | 79

2011 | 12

2012 | 28

2013 | 27

2014 | 18

2015 | 21

2016 | 46 – Up over 200%!

Recommendations:

New foreclosure filings are up substantially on the Miami Beaches, and while I do not publish reports for other zip codes, I have performed these same analysis across three counties for my customers & clients.  There is A LOT of this going on.  I have nearly 100 short sale listings on MLS; only last year I had none.  It is a growing business again.  33140 and 33154 have not seen much action, yet, but I will be keeping tabs on them as I expect the tide to start sinking all ships at some point.

If you are a property owner and had plans to sell within the next 3 years, I strongly urge you to SELL NOW and immediately trade out of Dollars for either real estate (real estate of the same class, but perhaps a different location), that can fetch a higher capitalization rate if you were to rent/lease it, or plan to do so (view all purchases, even if it is your own home, from an investor’s perspective) or physical currency in the form of Gold and/or Silver, or a combination of the two.  Every situation is different, and I am happy to advise you.

If you are a Buyer/Investor, the distressed market is expanding once again.  Buy/Rehab/Flip and Buy/Rehab/Rent/Flip continues to be a working model.  What you need to be careful of is the potential loss of purchasing power of the Dollar.  I believe that locking in low interest rates at 50-75% Loan-To-Value, and thereby strategically increasing your Cash-on-Cash Return, is the best path to follow to protect yourself from the potentially damaging effects of inflation.  Thus, If inflation begins to kick in substantially, the only real estate you want to be left holding is that which is in a fantastic location; as you will continue to be able to raise your rental rate commensurate with what is appropriate for the location of Demand.  Following the same strategy; if Deflation occurs, your financial leverage will work against you on paper, however, as long as you are able to continuing to leasing your real estate at or near current rents, your return on investment should continue to provide substantial returns despite the value of the property declining; and income should really be your primary goal as a long-term investor in real estate; not property appreciation.

I also like certain REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) investments, Gold/Silver and other niche areas & industries where money can best be shielded from the consequences of the long-standing poor monetary & fiscal policies of our government. Call me to discuss!

Forthcoming – I will be publishing July’s & August’s data on the Miami Beaches over the next few days as I am winding up for a close of 3rd Quarter Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse coming in October.

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333  Phone  1-800-798-9192  Mobile  305-878-2288  Fax  305-521-8995  Email  chris@mii.miami  Website  http://www.mii.miami
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – May 2016 Edition

South Point & The Miami Beaches
South Point & The Miami Beaches

Hello and welcome back to the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  For the month of May 2016, I am simply going to publish the data and give a brief summary for each zip code.  I have been working on getting out a Special Edition Report for the month of June and first half of 2016.  It will come next week in two parts; the first will be my standard format comparing year over year data for the prior 30 days, and the Part 2 will be exclusively focused on the Distressed Property Market of the Miami Beaches.  The month of May 2016 has seen the continuation of a correction on the Miami Beaches I first documented May of last year.  In May 2015’s article, I reported (in this article here) a massive drop in year over year Sales Volume (comparing May 2015 to May 2014) for every zip code of the Miami Beaches.  12 Months later, here are the year-over-year (over year) results.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $392K, Up 0.6% | Median Est. Listing Price: $279K, Up 3.9% | Median Days in RPR: 122, Up 9.9% | Sales Volume: 130, Down –24.4%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume remains near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Nearly 70% of sales were under 400K; there appears to be “support” (borrowing a term from stock market lingo when referencing stock price charts) at a median sales price of 250K.  At a price per square foot perspective, almost 80% of sales ranged from 200-600 dollars per square foot, almost evenly split between 200-400 per square foot (Class C+ to Class B properties) and 400-600 dollars per square foot (Class B to Class A- properties).  The higher end of the market, 600-1200+ per square foot represents Class A and A+ properties and those accounted for 25% of total sales in the 33139 zip code.  Average time on the market is up nearly 10% and stands firmly at 4 months!

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $495K, Up 4.7% | Median Est. Listing Price: $480K, Up 21.5% | Median Days in RPR: 117, Up 2.6% | Sales Volume: 66, Down –19.5%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

The Median Sales Price, it appears, has “double bottomed”, beginning in January 2014 and into March of 2015.  The trend has been higher due to new construction, rehabilitation of existing buildings & units, and (at least in my own experience speaking with people) because they “…want to live on Miami Beach, but NOT on South Beach…”.  The overall market remains week with record listing volume and near-3-year-low Sales Volume.  Average time on the market is nearly 4 months!

Sales Volume is well below average for the season (as well) when compared over the past 3 years, and Listing Volume has etched even higher to a new 3 year high!  Roughly 75% of sales have been less than a $600K sales price, and 66 sales were over $1.2 Million dollars.  Less than one eighth of all sales transactions were between 600K and 1.2 Million dollars.  The bulk of sales ranged between $200 & $500 dollars per square foot. Approximately 10% of all sales were greater than $800 dollars per square foot, and 3% were less than $100 per square foot.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $262K, Up 0.4% | Median Est. Listing Price: $265K, Up 15.3% | Median Days in RPR: 102, Up 4.1% | Sales Volume: 74, Down –36.2%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 I have repeatedly said that 33141 offers the best possibly value for anyone, but most importantly the “common man”.  The average pricing, especially considering the location (and that location’s future) is, in my professional opinion, a once-in-a-lifetime deal for someone who wishes to own and/or live in Miami Beach. Listing Volume continues to climb while Sales Volume continues to fall off.   Approximately 60% of all transaction were under 300K.  300-600K accounted for another 18% while residences over 600K  accounted for 20% of total transactions.  50% of all transactions were prices at under $250 dollars per square foot (with approximately half of those being under $200 dollars per square foot), and 40% of all transactions were between $250 & $500 dollars per square foot.  Median Sales price is only edging higher because of newer, higher-end sales which account for approximately 55 of 400 transactions yet were nearly triple the value of 50% of the bulk of transactions.  Considering other than prospective distressed opportunities for acquisition, I believe this area has reached a “floor” in terms of price (+/-10% from the current average median sales price); I would not expect to do better under most circumstances and property conditions.  Average time on the market is 3.5 months.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $680K, Up 17.3% | Median Est. Listing Price: $500K, Up 6.4% | Median Days in RPR: 129, Up 0.8% | Sales Volume: 38, Down –39.7%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.

Bal Harbour and the Bay Harbor Islands are home to a wealthy and exclusive community.  Median Sales Price is near a 3-year low, Average time on the market is just over 4 months, and Listing Volume remains matched with last month’s 3 year high.  Median Listing Price has trended higher in 2016 overall and is currently hovering just about $450K.  Once again, there is an enormous disparity between the different asset classes selling.  Approximately 45% of all sales transactions were under $500K, while 30% were between $500K and $1.1 Million USD.  20% of all sales were over $1.1 Million USD.  More than 60% of transactions ranged between 200 dollars and 500 dollars per square foot.  More than 80% of sales were for 1 and 2 bedroom properties.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $351K, Up 0.4% | Median Est. Listing Price, $326K, Up 23.1% | Median Days in RPR, 117, Up 6.4% | Sales Volume: 111, Down –26.5%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.

Do not be fooled by the data!  Median Listing Price is up substantially because of a particular phenomenon that is well documented (by myself and other sources).  New units in new towers are coming online and as much as 20% of these buildings end up listed within a few months of their opening dates, and given that pricing started at circa $1400.00 per square foot in these units (pre-construction pricing), it should be obvious this newer inventory is skewing the data.  So while the Median Listing Price is up over 20%, the Median Estimated Home Value is virtually flat year over year.  What is important is that once again Sales Volume is down substantially, hovering just above a 3 year low, and Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high! Approximately 50% of all sales transactions have been under $400K with the remainder distributed well into the $1 Million+ range.

I live in Sunny Isles Beach, and have done so for nearly 7 years.  There is a wonderful, long-term opportunity here for the affluent family.  Sunny Isles Beach recently completed Gateway Park, an area that will be family-oriented complete with an awesome children’s playground and a theatre for cultural performances; the city is currently in the process of sinking all of the power lines running along the A1A into the ground, and it has also completed several other parks and park renovations, all of which are geared for the entertainment and enjoyment of young families. For a man who is aspiring to be a father one day soon, I believe I am in the right place for what I want.

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a Residential Real Estate Search Website for both Rentals and Purchases!

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – April 2016 vs. April 2015

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – April 2016 versus April 2015

The Miami Beaches
The Miami Beaches, Intra-coastal Waterways & North Biscayne Bay

It is a beautiful Saturday morning on the Miami Beaches as I write this blog post, which is a month overdue.  In my previous articles, particularly the February & March Market Pulse editions, I expounded upon existing & potential threats to the Miami Beaches Real Estate Markets (February), and I demonstrated 1st quarter sales volumes for the first quarter of the past 17 years according to tax records on the Miami Beaches.

Yes, it is true that existing home sales have taken a beating over the past two years with only a moderate drop in Median Sales Prices, but this has been due, largely, to 1)  New Construction / Pre-Construction Sales (which are generally non-MLS sales) and 2)  The falling in value of virtually every currency in the world relative to the US Dollar.  I am sure that the talking heads may also cite “political uncertainty” ahead of what is perhaps one of the most unique election cycles in more than 100 years; but I have yet to see an authoritative poll indicating such.

I will be more brief than usual and simply publish the April 2016 versus April 2015 MLS data (and May’s is next) this month as I am winding up for an extensive 2-part edition for June 2016 where I will cover the first half of the year compared to prior years (should I go all the way back to 2000 like I did in March?  Comments? ), and publish a separate, but related issue covering the Distressed Property Market.  Look for these in early to mid-July!

 

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $391K, Up 0.2%; Median Est. Listing Price: $275K, Up 1.9%; Median Days in RPR: 120 Up –; Sales Volume: 72, Down –55.6%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report!

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report!

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $493K,  Up 7%; Median Est. Listing Price: $485K, Up 27.8%; Median Days in RPR: 120, Down –13%; Sales Volume: 31, Down –52.3%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report!

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report!

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

 

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $267K, Up 6.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $255K, Up 11.4%; Median Days in RPR: 103, Down –1%; Sales Volume: 45, Down –48.9%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report!

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report!

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $676K, Up 19.1%; Median Est. Listing Price: $482K, Up 5.5%; Median Days in RPR: 120, Down –9.1%; Sales Volume: 26, Down –50%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $354K, Up 2.4%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $319K, Up 19%; Median Days in RPR: 113, Down –5%; Sales Volume: 78, Down –53.3%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Summary & Conclusion

In all 5 zip codes, MLS Sales Volume is abysmal and at a 3 year low, while listing volume is at a 3 year high.  What we are seeing (or a good part of it), is new construction (as much as 10-15% of units in each new building) are being listed / flipped on to the market by the original Buyers, thus raising the Median Estimated Home Value calculation AND the Median Estimated Listing Price.  I have noticed older units (Existing Homes greater than 1-2 years old), prices have been dropping on a per square foot basis, which explains the reduced time on market for MLS listed properties.  However, listing volume continues to increase monthly, and in order for the market to come into equilibrium, prices must come down, OR, the US Dollar needs to weaken against foreign currencies sufficiently enough in order to spur sales of existing homes and thus reverse the upward trend in listing volume and the downward trend in sales volume.

Recommendations

If you are planning on making a purchase that is 500,000 USD or more, I would recommend Bal Harbour.  It is a thriving and affluent community with great long-term prospects in terms of resilience of home values.  If you are planning a purchase of home and looking to invest less than $500,000 USD, I recommend the 33141 zip code, North Bay Village and North Beach, where I have been seeing some fantastic values / “bang for the buck” (and location); AND condos are selling in some cases for less than what it would cost to construct new.  It is definitely a good time to be buying in this emerging area while it is on the cheap!

This concludes my April Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  I will publish May’s results AND year-over-year-over-year comparisons this forthcoming week.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Cheers,

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA

Licensed Real Estate Broker, REALTOR®

Business Manager

Metro International Investments

Toll Free: 1-800-798-9192 ext. 333

International: 1-305-517-3086 ext. 333

Fax: 305-521-8995

License Number: BK3252123

B: www.BeachBroker.Miami

W: www.REBroker.Miami (MLS Search Available!)

W: www.MII.Miami

Special Issue: The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – March 2016 & 1st Quarter Analysis

Miami Beach
Miami Beach

Hello everyone and thank you for visiting my blog!  I am in the process of catching the blog up (3 months of data collected so I will be making several posts this week and next to bring the blog current).  My focus over the past few months has been largely dedicated to servicing my customers, clients and, especially, my agents in achieving their goals.  We recently hit an in-house brokerage record of 85 listings on the MLS!  Go Team!  Today, I finally resolved to make some time to get back to one of my passions; reporting on the real estate markets of the Miami Beaches.

As we closed the first quarter there was a noticeable shift (largely negative) in the media’s coverage regarding the Miami Beaches and Downtown Miami Real Estate Markets.  Despite the optimism we (my firm) were feeling after a largely successful quarter, what appears to be a spike in distressed real estate activity signaled, to me, the coming to fruition of a prediction I made in late 2013 and going into 2014; a bearish real estate market driven by an appreciation in the US Dollar relative to virtually every other currency in the world.  While I am not inclined to believe there will be another “crash” per se (unless we have a currency crisis or some other major event like the mortgage crisis of 2008), macroeconomic activity over the past 24 months has shifted us from a Seller’s Market into what is now clearly a Buyer’s Market.  In my prior article (the February Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse), I referenced several reasons we have seen an ongoing correction, as well as potential threats to the real estate market. I firmly believe a correction in numerous markets is firmly in place and will not finish correcting until listing prices drop sufficiently for sales volume to increase in a manner that will bring the overall market back into equilibrium.  The Miami Beaches, as a whole, may be at or near an inflection point as I am seeing year-over-year data that is far less horrible than the prior year’s year-over-year data.

Fortunately, the Miami Beaches, the City of Miami, and Miami-Dade County as a whole possess a larger & longer-term story than just the short-term ups and downs of the real estate markets.   Numerous areas of the County are growing by leaps and bounds, and the imbalances in the Downtown Miami & Miami Beaches real estate markets will, ultimately resolve.  What imbalances you might ask?  Well, others have written about this (specifically regarding the Downtown Miami market) with data they have gathered so I will not go into a dissertation, however, I will say that it really does seem like half the buildings are empty year round!  A good article that goes into this subject can be found here:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jj-colagrande/panama-papers-reveal-miam_b_10030094.html.

As the article points out, this has led to numerous restaurants and businesses closing, all because the anticipated cash flow from having reasonably occupied neighborhoods never happened (this is usually the problem of making projections based on assumptions rather than actual knowledge).  As a result, businesses that opened over the past few years faced a stark reality of having opened in, albeit a brand new, mostly abandoned neighborhood which continues to suffer from a ludicrous level of traffic resulting from all the ongoing construction.  The Miami Beaches, also populated with substantially vacant towers, does not suffer nearly as much because the beaches are a vacation destination and therefore the local businesses benefit from a continuous inflow of cash from vacationers as well as locals; more so than the Downtown Miami (and other) areas of the County.

With that said, I want to refute the negativity I have been seeing regarding the “Doom & Gloom” articles circulating in many papers & trade journals; at least as far as the Miami Beaches are concerned. For the past year I have been discussing a correction in the market and this by no means should be construed as “The sky is falling”.  Corrections are healthy for a market!  In our most recent “blip” (when compared to 20 years), we had and still have a number of factors impacting MLS related sales such as:

  1.  A global currency meltdown relative to the value of the Dollar. (It cannot be understated how much the Miami Beaches benefited from Foreign Direct Investment)
  2. Massive amounts of pre-construction & new construction sales.  This absolutely punishes the sales of existing homes and the related data leading Buyers into thinking they can “catch the bottom of the market”, so they wait and eventually miss the opportunity all together.
  3. Finally!  An uptick in interest rates!  With any luck they will keep rising!  There are still far too many overvalued assets / unrealistic Sellers.  If that were not true, there would not be such a massive (and growing) glut of luxury real estate, both For Rent & For Sale, pouring onto the market.
  4. Regular debate, even still, over how our government intends to screw up or even completely abolish a good thing (Mortgage Interest Tax Deductions).
  5. Tight/Tighter credit despite low interest rates (done by the government to artificially re-inflate home prices)
  6. A trickle of foreclosures (REOs) and a painfully slow short sale process (another government induced strategy to inflate & maintain home prices).  Much of this should have been long resolved by now but rather than let the Free Market takeover, all they have succeeded in doing is prolonging the pain and creating other imbalances in the market with consequences still yet to come.

In this article I am going to demonstrate that the real estate market (so far as the Miami Beaches are concerned) are actually more robust, from a Sales Volume Perspective, now than they were prior to the mortgage crisis.  Pundits will of course argue that the numbers are overinflated by speculative overbuilding and a corresponding demand from overseas shell corporations (a term now synonymous with “Panama Papers”) to hide/park money; but I know from living & working here for the past 14 years that Miami is quickly emerging as a cultural & business epicenter of the world.  So long as that fact & corresponding trend remains true, even if the overseas holding companies have to dump or otherwise liquidate the thousands of vacant units darkening our towers, prices will only correct to a point where real, living, breathing & working people will fill those vacant apartments because they want to live here, work here, start businesses here and raise a family here.  Naturally, there would be the inevitable next wave(s) of speculation as well, both on the way down and on the way back up.

Typically, I only publish the MLS Data in these Market Pulse Reports.  This month, I wanted to educate everyone’s perspective on the subject of Sales Volume (and build upon where I was going in the above paragraph).  In this report I provide the total sales for 1st Quarter of each year since 2000 for all 5 zip codes.  Additional reports like this, with even greater detail & metrics, will follow over the coming year.

Reports by Zip Code

33139 – South Beach

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value $391K Down –0.3% | Median Est. Listing Price $279K Up 1.5% | Median Days in RPR 119 Down –7% | Sales Volume 126 Down –11.3%

33139 – March 2016 Market Activity Report  –  Of Note:  Overall Sales Volume is down 11.3% from March of last year.  Average listing requires 3.75 months to sell.

33139 – Neighborhood Report -(based on 6 months of data) Of Note:  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high at just over 3000 listings on the market!  Greater than 70% of homes sold ranged from $200-$600 per square foot.

All (total) Real Estate Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 93

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 104

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 129

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 191

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 230

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 410 (the 2005 real estate market is often equated to the 1999 stock market)

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 280

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 235

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 273

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 206

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 295

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 373

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 463

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 567

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 648

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 743

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 662  – Sales Volume, although off by approximately 10% from the same period last year, is still approximately 50% higher than it was at the height of the market in 2005.  We are still pretty far from the sky falling!

33140 – North Beach

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $489K, Up 7% | Median Est. Listing Price: $458K, Up 22% | Median Days in RPR: 117, Down –14.6% | Sales Volume: 69, Up 38%

33140 – Market Activity Report – Of Note:  Strong year over year bounce in existing sales and listed new construction.  Nearly a 15% drop time on the market.  Median Home Value up a solid 7%.  Median Listing Prices are up over 20%!

33140 – Neighborhood Report -(based on 6 months of data) Of Note:  Listing Volume at a 3 year high, just under 1500 listings across the zip code.  Roughly 50% of all homes sold were under $400,000 USD.  Roughly 70% of all homes sold for between $200-$500.00 per square foot.  At least 50% of all homes sold were under 1400 square feet.  Just under 50% of all homes sold were between 40 & 50 years old.

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 88

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 95

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 116

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 103

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 128

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 237 (the 2005 real estate market is often equated to the 1999 stock market)

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 139

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 121

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 183

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 113

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 183

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 207

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 255

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 283

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 271

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 365

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 328 – Sales Volume, although off an approximate of 10% from the same period last year, is still approximately 40-50% higher than it was at the height of the market in 2005.  We are still pretty far from the sky falling!

33141 – North Bay Village

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $271K, Up 9.3% | Median Est. Listing Price: $253K, Up 7.7% | Median Days in RPR: 106, Down –11.7% | Sales Volume 72, Down –10%

33141 – Market Activity Report – Of Note: Median Estimated Home Values up nearly 10% year-over-year!  Listing Prices are trending higher.  Average time on the market is 3 1/2 months.  Sales volume continues to trend lower but is starting to flatten.

33141 – Neighborhood Report -(based on 6 months of data) Of Note:  Listing Volume at 3 year high at just over 1500 listings.  Over 50% of all listings sold for under $300,000 USD; while 25% of all homes sold closed at over $600,000 USD.  Two-Thirds of all homes sold were priced at under $300.00 per square foot (I continue to think 33141 is the BEST deal on the beaches going!) with more than half of those under 200.00 per square foot!  Approximately 75% of all homes sold were under 1400 square feet.  363 of the 400+ homes sold were more than 20 years old with 140 of them being greater than 60 years old!

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 43

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 67

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 84

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 62

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 124

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 222 (the 2005 real estate market is often equated to the 1999 stock market)

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 135

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 113

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 115

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 126

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 158

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 210

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 264

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 342

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 335

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 373

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 415  – Sales Volume is a a record high for the zip code for Q1 compared over any year in the last 17 years!  One reason for this is venture capitalists are teaming up with brokers to buy up the, largely, 50-90 year old homes and apartment buildings in the area with the intent to demolish and build anew.  This represents a substantial shift in the future of North Bay Village and 33141 in general.  If there was EVER a time to buy there, it would be right now!

33154 – Bal Harbour

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $684K. Up 23.2% | Median Est. Listing Price: $499K, Up 8.5% | Median Days in RPR: 118, Down –8.5% | Sales Volume: 33, Down –43.1%

33154 – Market Activity Report – Of Note:  Median Estimated Home Values are up a whopping 23% and Listing Prices are on the rise while the average time on the market is trending lower.  Sales Volume, however, is off by more than 40% over the same period last year.

33154 – Neighborhood Report – (based on 6 months of data)  Of Note:  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high! There are extremes in the price ranges of homes sold with more than a third of the homes selling for less than $500K, roughly a third selling between $500K-$1M and the remainder selling for over $1M.  Price per square foot metrics are nicely distributed across all price ranges.  The bulk of homes sold are over 30 years old

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 54

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 47

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 68

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 69

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 75

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 83

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 71

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 54

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 104

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 69

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 111

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 122

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 404  (bulk real estate & strategic purchases by well capitalized groups account for this major boost)

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 198

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 171

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 271

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 207

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $352K, Up 2% | Median Est. Listing Price: $300K, Up 11.7% | Median Days in RPR: 111, Down –12.6% |

Sales Volume: 123,  Down –8.9%

33160 – Market Activity Report –  Of Note:  Given how drastic I have seen the numbers in Sunny Isles Beach bounce around for the past few years, I consider this to be a fairly flat/stabilized comparison.  For the better part of last year this particular zip code read a lot like a Stock Market Crash Horror Story (see the May and October 2015 reports)

33160 – Neighborhood Report (based on 6 months of data) – approximately 50% of all sales were under $400K with another 25% selling for over $1M.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  Median Listing Values have risen to their highest level in 3 years.

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 117

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 168

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 156

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 233

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 273

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 363

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 245

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 253

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 280

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 270

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 384

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 479

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 534

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 597

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 595

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 625

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 733 (Freshly at a 17 year high overall)

Commentary

As you can readily see, over the past 17 years the total number of sales (Sales Volume) has steadily increased because of the economic development & growth on the beaches.  The same data, when looked at more granularly, can even tell you who to buy next door too 😉

Granted, we are comparing simply the 1st quarter of each of these years, and that at the very least, the early 2000s were “seasonal” on the Miami Beaches.  However, those of you who also live, work & drive here know there is no such thing as an “off season” anymore; and we can all agree there are a great deal more residences on the beaches as well.

While I am perceiving a Buyer’s Market in the luxury arena (more than anywhere else), it should also be noted that the Miami Beaches are a faster moving market than many, if not most.  Fluctuations in the currency markets directly impact the perceived value(s) of Miami Beach Real Estate, and while the real estate market moves slowly, the currency markets can turn on a dime.  For example, I would wager that if the Federal Reserve does not continue its hawkish stance (continue to raise interest rates), the Dollar will tank and overseas currencies will once again pour in like a tsunami over Southeast Florida.  Vice versa, continuing on the current path of rising interest rates will ultimately lead to lower home prices (because mortgages become more expensive).

It would be interesting to see Sales Volume as a function of overall available capacity of salable real estate.  That would, amongst other things, just how much of a “correction” there has actually been relative to other time periods.  Another thing to put on my “to do list” for future publications….but I digress…

More to come over these next couple of weeks!  I will be more brief in my next couple of Market Pulse Editions…I have been thinking I should stick to quarterly BIG articles, and limit the others.  Let me know if you have any feedback 🙂

Cheers,

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA

Licensed Real Estate Broker