The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – March 2017 Results

Sunrise on Miami Beach
Sunrise on Miami Beach

Welcome to the March 2017 edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse, by yours truly, Christopher J. Lazaro, Licensed Real Estate Broker.  I have lived in Florida for the past 15 years, most recent 8 years of which I have lived in the Miami Beaches with the A1A, Collins Avenue, just outside my doorstep.  In that time I have witnessed the continued transformation of the Miami Beaches as new towers go up, old buildings being rehabilitated and repurposed, and even the complete destruction of small shopping centers to make way for parks & green space.  Since I have lived on the beach, I have watched rents skyrocket, even recently as the glut of luxury inventory continues to build and loom over the market, in the same manner, the shadow of the towers loom over the beach in the afternoon.  What is interesting, however, is we are in a very similar circumstance to where we were in 2006 & 2007 when renting a unit on the beach was far less expensive than the cost of ownership.  In economic terms, from an Opportunity Cost perspective, why own on the beach at all when renting, despite 7 consecutive years of rent increases (sometimes substantial), is by far and away the more financially sensible option?  Peter Schiff, known economist, self-made millionaire, and CEO of EuroPacific Capital & EuroPacific Bank, pointed out this very paradigm (rents versus the cost of home ownership) just before the collapse of the prior real estate market.  I subscribe to Peter Schiff’s YouTube Channel and recommend it.

Do not get me wrong, while I am a “Bear” on the higher-end condominium market, there remain excellent opportunities to be had on the Miami Beaches, one just needs to know what to look for and where.  In addition, the growing inventory of new and newer condominiums on the resale market will eventually become heavy enough to break through their current Price Support Levels and towards more sensible and affordable price levels.  Listing Volume continues it’s 3-year climb and Sales Volume is so low that it has forced many Realtors to find greener pastures elsewhere.  I expect in some cases properties will eventually trade at levels at or lower than their cost to build.  Don’t just take it from me, The Daily Business Review did a recent article on the subject on February 1st, 2017 entitled “2,550 For Sale: Miami Sees Record Luxury Condo Glut”.  This article comes on the heels of numerous others discussing similar circumstances in Downtown Miami; Wolf Street published “In Miami Condo Glut, Preconstruction Resale Market Freezes Up” and following that article from September of last year, there was another, published in the Miami Herald, on March 17th entitled “The number of new downtown Miami condos will surge this year — and then fall“.

Spring is in the air, and as we head further into April I am excited by the prospect of at least one large commercial sale on Ocean Drive my team and I have been working for months on.  Whether the market is going up or down, the fact remains that the Miami Beaches are, and will continue to be, one of the most desirable locations to live and invest in for the foreseeable future!  Now, onto the reporting for the Month of March 2017!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & the Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The Median Sales Price has been buoyed by higher than average real estate sales.  The average property is listed on the MLS for 4 months before it sells!

Click here to see Active Real Estate Listings in South Beach & the Venetian Islands. 

33140 – Mid-Beach

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Miami Beach Listings in Mid-Beach, 33140.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Miami Beach Listings in North Beach & North Bay Village in 33141. 

33154 – Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume returning to a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Miami Beach Listings in Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island in 33154. 

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Click here to see Active Listings in Sunny Isles Beach, 33160.

This concludes my report for March 2017 versus March 2016.  It appears the decline in the market is largely centered on condominiums as single family housing remains very strong in Miami-Dade County at large.  For the time being, renting, or owning a single family home appears to be the most financially sensible options available to the prospective new resident of the Miami Beaches.  If you have any questions or would like to be shown potential new homes or investments in the Miami Beaches, feel free to contact me anytime.  1-800-798-9192 ext. 333.

Yours truly,

Christopher J. Lazaro

Licensed Real Estate Broker

Metro International Investments

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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – February 2017 Results

Miami Beach
Aerial View of Miami Beach

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach


Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Nothing new here.  My firm has two listings in South Beach and has had these for over a year.  Price reductions have finally be permitted, but not enough to generate interest in, what is still, overpriced real estate.  It is a Buyer’s Market and will continue to be so into the foreseeable future.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Sales Price vs Sales Volume ticked higher due to well above average closing prices on some high-ticket properties, but this does not change the fact that Listing Price is declining as Listing Volume increases.  Sales Volume continues to diminish.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

I continue to reiterate my position on 33141.  I believe this is the last vestige of affordability for the average to above average earner(s).  There are very good buying opportunities here for people with 5-10 year investment time horizons.  Listing Prices continue to decline and Sales Volume is way down; there are Sellers ready to make a deal.  Call me for an appointment!

 33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands


Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

We are coming off January’s uptick; Listing Volume continues its northward climb, Sales Volume is heading back lower.  I expect the Bal Harbour Market will re-synchronize with the rest of the Miami Beaches Real Estate Market.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Listing Volume inched higher while Sales Volume dropped further.  Many of the new listings are coming out of new/newer buildings that were recently completed.  I believe we are going to see a mass exodus, dwarfing the current trend, from overpriced luxury and ultra luxury condo assets.  Between the taxes and the condo association fees, it is impossible to recover an investment in any of these as asset appreciation cannot possibly increase in value enough and fast enough; especially in light of even more, newer, capacity coming online.

The Miami Association of REALTORS® publishes a market update themselves called Market Focus.  For the Miami-Dade County area in February, this is the South Florida Market Focus Update for February 2017.

Updated: The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – January 2017 Results

For most tourists this is one of the happiest sites of their whole visit.

Updated the Link (sorry for the double post!) It was a very busy 1st quarter for me and now I find myself with 3 months of catching up on my blog (I will, however, date the reports appropriately on my blog)!  January appears to be little different than the prior months with Sales Volume(s) at 3-year lows and Listing Volume(s) pushing new 3-year highs.  The majority of the issue, in my opinion, is the condo market on the beach.  We are, and have been for quite some time, in a Buyer’s Market for condominiums.  I also believe we are far too overbuilt on the luxury side and underbuilt for housing that even above average income earners can afford.  The structural imbalances I perceive in the market are bound to correct, perhaps drastically, in the coming 1-2 years.  With that said, on with the data!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 I will reiterate my comments about this zip code.  In my opinion, this is the best
area for the money to buy in if you want to live in the Miami Beaches.  I know several
buildings that are trading at half the cost of their replacement value.  Call me for 
appointments and showings!

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume has spiked higher for a 2nd consecutive month.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

There was a flurry of activity in Bal Harbour, a difficult market to predict,
as several large 7 figure transactions occurred, which skews the Median Sales 
Price Chart substantially, as well a considerable number of sales UNDER the 
Median Estimated Home Value (200K+ under).  There appears to be a healthy 
number of sales in Pending, and these will likely show up in the next report.
However, there were a considerable number expired listings this month, and 90% 
of the time this occurs because the home is OVER PRICED relative to the supply 
& demand factors which ultimately effect comparable properties by which these 
expired listings were being judged.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Again we see a spike in the Sales Price versus Sales Volume chart due to several 7 figure closings. A very large number of listings expired in January; a sign that Seller’s have not woken up to the fact that their property is not nearly as valuable as they believe it is. Supply continues to grow and demand remains in a weakening state.

Thank you for reading another edition of The Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  I am going to publish February & March’s results shortly.  Also check back for a couple of Special Edition Reports I have been working on as I track the Distressed Asset Market Trends and, very soon, I will be examining the trends in the Commercial Real Estate Market of the Miami Beaches.

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – December 2016 Results

Welcome to Miami Beach - Christmas
Welcome to Miami Beach – Christmas

Welcome to the December Results Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  I truly hope everyone had a happy & healthy holiday season and wish you all the very best in 2017!

The Miami Beaches are especially beautiful during the holiday season with mesmerizing lighting and festive decorations running from Golden Beach through South Beach to South Pointe Park.

I will be as brief as possible in this report as I am drafting the 2016 year-end wrap-up report for the beaches and Miami-Dade County as a whole which I expect to have completed later this week.

The data I am publishing today remains consistent with the findings of the Miami Association of REALTORS® Intelligence Report for November 2016.  In a nutshell, there is strong demand for single family homes throughout the county; and therefore that market is up nearly 14% for the year, higher than it has been since as early as 2009.  It is a Seller’s Market for single family homes county-wide.  However, the condo market continues to decline (down over 11% year over year); leaving that market in a Buyer’s Market.  Given the concentration of condos on the Miami Beaches, the overall aggregate sales numbers have been weighed down considerably when contrasted against the backdrop of the rest of the county due to the weakness in the condo market.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & the Venetian Islands

33139 Market Snapshot Dec 2016 vs. December 2016
33139 Market Snapshot Dec 2016 vs. December 2016

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

33139 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume - December 2016
33139 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – December 2016
33139 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume - December 2016
33139 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume – December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


33140 – Mid-Beach

The 33140 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
The 33140 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

33140 - Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume - December 2016
33140 – Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – December 2016
33140 - Median List Price vs. Listing Volume - December 2016
33140 – Median List Price vs. Listing Volume – December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year NEW high.  


33141 – North Beach, Normandy Island & North Bay Village

The 33141 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
The 33141 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

33141 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume
33141 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume
33141 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume
33141 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 NEW year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

33154 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
33154 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

33154 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume - December 2016
33154 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – December 2016
33154 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume - December 2016
33154 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume – December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

33160 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
33160 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

33160 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume for December 2016
33160 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume for December 2016
33160 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume for December 2016
33160 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume for December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 NEW year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


As I mentioned in my introduction, the condo market is weighing heavily on the overall market; and because of this, this is a time when Buyers can negotiate the best possible deals on condo purchases.  I encourage you to visit my MLS website: http://www,REBroker.Miami and inquire about any Miami Real Estate listing you may be interested in.  I will be happy to work with you towards your real estate ambitions and welcome you into the Miami Beach Lifestyle!

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – November 2016 Results

An afternoon on Miami Beach
An afternoon on Miami Beach

Welcome to the November 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  In this issue I will be simply laying out the data.  For my latest commentary, forecasts and recommendations, please reference my 3rd Quarter 2016 Market Analysis for the Miami Beaches, which included information on what appears to be a resurgence in the distressed asset market. Additional analysis, explaining the macroeconomic threats & challenges facing the Miami Beaches can be found in my February 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse and in my 1st Quarter 2016 Analysis of the Miami Beaches Real Estate Market.

My next full length analysese will not be published until early to mid January 2017 when I wrap up the 2016 Retail & Distressed Miami Beach Real Estate Markets in what will be two or three full-length reports covering the data and developments of 2016; and looking forward towards forecasting the 2017 economic year from a real estate broker & investor’s perspective.

 

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $387K, Down -1.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $150K, Down -42.3%; Median Days in RPR: 126 Down –6.7%; Sales Volume: 73, Down –31.1%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume sets a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

OF NOTE for 33139 (found in the Neighborhood Report):

33139 Median Listing Prices takes a HUGE dive!
33139 Median Listing Prices takes a HUGE dive!  Listing Volume at NEW 3 Year High!

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $534K,  Up 11.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $377K, Down 10.2%; Median Days in RPR: 132, Up 5.6%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –52.9%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high. 

See the Neighborhood Report (above) for full graphs and statistics.  Similar to 33139, this area is seeing a drop in both Sales Volume and Median Listing Price while at the same time seeing a build up in Listing Volume / Available Inventory For Sale.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-39-38-pm

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $273K, Up 1.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $198K, Down -17.5%; Median Days in RPR: 102, Down –4.7%; Sales Volume: 56, Down –37.8%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Of Note – Listing Volume continues to spike.  I still believe the best-deals-for-the-location are to be found HERE!!  Call me for more details!

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-31-38-pm

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $668K, Up 4.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $399K, Down 16.2%; Median Days in RPR: 131, Down –3%; Sales Volume: 20, Down –50%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Of Note – Median Listing Price is ALSO at a 3-Year Low:

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-38-05-pm

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $354K, Up 0.4%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $239K, Down 9.8%; Median Days in RPR: 145, Up 10.7%; Sales Volume: 87, Down –31.%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Of Note – Median Listing Price continues to decline!

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-45-23-pm

 It has been a wonderful holiday season and I hope all of you have been enjoying as well.  This is a time for both introspection and giving as we head into a brand new year.  For those who have emailed me in the past several months about NOT providing e

And, let me not forgot:  For those who have emailed me or commented otherwise, in the past several months, about NOT providing enough analysis or data; I have only this to say; “Bitch, PAY ME!”.  My service via this blog is both a hobby and, as I said…a service; which I perform at my leisure.  My vision and goal over 2017 is to expand the usefulness of this website to become a more encompassing resource for people to better get a feel for not only the real estate market, but the growing culture of the Miami Beaches Community.

My next blogs will happen in a series of 3-4 posts before Mid-January.  I wish you all a HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

Special 3rd Quarter Report – The Miami Beaches Market Pulse & Foreclosure Watch Reports – September 2016

Miami Beach
Miami Beach

Welcome to the 3rd Quarter Wrap-up Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  In this edition I provide the usual data and analysis on a zip code by zip code basis, and also provide the latest numbers for the distressed asset market for each zip code, and the county as a whole.  I have been documenting a correction on the Miami Beaches for nearly 2 years now and believe that the market remains on a precipice.  I do not see this as Doom & Gloom however.  Markets that are moving, whether up or down, provide for numerous opportunities; it is when markets are plateauing and/or stagnant, where Buyers & Sellers are unable to bridge the divide between Bid & Ask, that things look most dire.  Over the prior 18+ months I have been documenting a strong trend higher in Listing Volume and a strong trend lower in MLS Sales Volume.  These trends have both continued through the 3rd Quarter of 2016 and are joined by a massive uptick in foreclosure filings throughout Miami-Dade County.  This month, I believe we have reached a possible inflection point in the markets.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $392K, Up 0.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $260K, Up 2%; Median Days in RPR: 135 Up 2.3%; Sales Volume: 9, Down –92%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33139, Real Estate Market Activity Report.

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33139, Neighborhood Report.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

September 2016 represents the lowest MLS Sales Volume in a single month in the history of South Beach from what I am able to find online.  Listing Volume has set a new 3-year high as more Sellers come to market.  Median Sales Price for the month was substantially higher than average due to a larger, high end sale which closed during this reporting cycle.

Foreclosure Watch – 33139

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 74 Foreclosure Filings according to County Records.  This is more than double the 36 foreclosure filings over the same time period in 2015, and nearly three times the activity seen in 2012 (22 foreclosure filings) and 2011 (28 foreclosure filings).  Over the same time period in 2013 & 2014 there were 45 & 48 foreclosure filings respectively.

While 74 foreclosure filings for this year and time period is very high and does not yet represent a trend, by itself as a data point, it should be noted that at the height of the mortgage crisis in 2010, zi code 33139 saw 97 foreclosure filings during the Jan-through-Sept time period.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $542K,  Up 11.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $465K, Up 22.4%; Median Days in RPR: 134, Up 9.8%; Sales Volume: 6, Down –91%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33140, Real Estate Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33140, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

Similar to 33139, MLS Sales were in single digits this month for Mid-Beach, 33140.  Estimated Home Values, Listing Prices & Sales Prices were all up across the boards, however, this was accomplished on very weak sales volume; and in my experience, these numbers cannot respectively represent the true health of the market.

Foreclosure Watch 33140

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 38 foreclosure filings in 33140, up approximately 25% from the year before (28 filings in 2015), matching its 2014 total for the same time period and placing it within 12% of matching the 2010 high of 42 foreclosure filings.  In 2013, 2012, and 2011 there were 18, 13 & 9 foreclosure filings respectively.  Definitely see my June 2016 Distressed Market Analysis for an explanation of specific events over the time period of 2008-2016

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $269K, Up 1.8%; Median Est. Listing Price: $269K, Up 19.3%; Median Days in RPR: 114, Up 2.7%; Sales Volume: 10, Down –87.5%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33141, Real Estate Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33141, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 Sales Volume barely crossed into double digits this month and Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.  Over 2/3rd of home sales the past 12 months have been under 350K in zip code 33141.  I have said it before and will reiterate, for the location, you will not see better deals anywhere on Miami Beach than in this zip code.

Foreclosure Watch 33141

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 60 foreclosure filings in 33141, effectively DOUBLING 2015’s total of 31 filings.  This years total remains 33% off the 2010 total of 82.  2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had 16, 42, 32, & 22 filings respectively.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $678K, Up 7.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $510K, Up 21.7%; Median Days in RPR: 132, Down –4.3%; Sales Volume: 3, Down –91.7%

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33154, Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33154, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 33154 registered a whopping THREE closed sales this September 2016 with the lowest sales volume in easily more than 3 years while listing volume has continued its march higher towards one thousand (1000) active listings.

Foreclosure Watch 33154

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 17 foreclosure filings, roughly 25% more than the 2015 total for the same time period of 13 and still substantially lower from 2010, where a staggering 40 foreclosure filings loomed in what is otherwise one of the wealthiest and most prosperous zip codes in the United States.  2011, 2012, 2013 & 2014 had totals of 8, 13, 12 & 13 foreclosure filings over the same time period respectively.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $360K, Up 2.2%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $320K, Up 23.6%; Median Days in RPR: 147, Up 11.4%; Sales Volume: 19, Down –86.9%

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach, 33160, Real Estate Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach, 33160, Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Foreclosure Watch 33160

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 83 foreclosure filings, more than doubling the 2015 total of 33 for the same time period.  While still 50% from the 2010 high of 122 foreclosure filings during the Jan-Sept time frame, the move comes has a substantial surprise given the 2011-2014 numbers which ranged from 20 filings in 2011, 46 in 2012, and then “stability” seemed to be 35 (2013), 31 (2014) and 33 (2015).

Foreclosure Watch – Miami-Dade County

From January 1st 2016 through September 30th 2016 there were 5250 foreclosure filings in Miami-Dade County, nearly double the 2797 that were filed over the same time period in 2015.  The Miami Beaches are effectively paralleling the rest of Miami-Dade County and are experiencing the same macroeconomic and microeconomic forces as the rest of the county.  The 2016 year-to-date totals do not touch the 2010 YTD total of 8949 foreclosure filings during the first 3 quarters of 2010.  2011 followed with 1306 as the court system and legal issues pertaining to “robo mortgages” brought our judicial system to a crawl; but in 2012, the backlog began getting worked through with 5036 filings and another 3847 foreclosure filings in 2013 over the same time period.  In 2014, there were 2595 foreclosure filings during the first 3 quarters of the year.

Conclusion & Forecast

September 2016 in the Miami Beaches has set, what could be, historic lows in terms of sales volume in ALL 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches. Furthermore, listing volume continues to push higher across all Miami Beach real estate markets and is currently at 3-5 year highs throughout the Miami Beaches.  Furthermore, substantial foreclosure activity has resumed throughout the 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches (as well as Miami-Dade County as a whole) and these facts are in stark contrast to the picture our government paints for us with a constant diatribe about the “economic recovery” we are all supposedly benefitting from.  I have published before, and will soon again, that the recent “recovery” has been entirely stimulus reduced and has no real basis in fact, but that is for another article.  These market conditions cannot endure forever.  It is scenarios like these that lead to sudden shifts in trend when Sellers realize that their prices are too high and either lower their prices to clear the market, or withdraw from the market all together; especially when other forces, such as interest rates going up or the general availability of credit drying up, help make the decision for them.  I have a large number of Buyers awaiting buying opportunities in the market; and I believe that time is rapidly approaching at the retail level.  My firm is already servicing more than 100 short sales and several hundred investors who Buy-Rehab-Flip and bid on these distressed assets.

With the specter of higher interest rates looming on the horizon, I believe retail asset prices will have to come down across the boards; and CAP rates (for leases both residential & commercial) are already beginning to see upward pressure (meaning ask prices are trending lower), a that trend will continue into the foreseeable future.

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – August 2016 vs August 2015

An afternoon on Miami Beach
An afternoon on Miami Beach

Welcome to another edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  This article covers August 2016 versus August 2015.  The Miami Beach Real Estate Markets have now been in a correction for at least 18 months and an equilibrium has not yet been established.  Listing Volumes are at or near 3 year highs and Sales Volumes (in so far as MLS is concerned) have been seeing a 2nd year of substantial declines.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $392K, Down -1.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $272K, Up 8.1%; Median Days in RPR: 130 Up 5.7%; Sales Volume: 44, Down –68.3%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is near a 3 year high.

Estimated Home Values have begun to correct; as I have indicated earlier, the values have been increasing despite the correction beginning more than 1 year ago.  Median Listing Price has been up, but there are a large number of new and renovated units hitting the market, listing volume remains near a 3 year high, and in kind, transaction volume has plummeted.  In the basic course of economics, prices must go down for equilibrium to be established.  Transaction Volume will continue to fall barring more macro-economic considerations, such as a substantial fall in the Dollar, which would bring in another round of Foreign Direct Investment.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $527K,  Up 7.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $475K, Up 20.3%; Median Days in RPR: 128, Up 1.6%; Sales Volume: 60, Down –34.1%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume has ticked up and is approaching it’s 3 year average.  Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.

This year in 33140, half of all transactions were over 600K!  Mid-Beach appears to have rebounded to a degree off of it’s lows.  It is still too early to tell if this is merely a bounce, or a greater change in trend.  Of note though, nearly 50% of all units sold were between 50-60 years old, which can possibly be attributed to entire building(s) being taken over by developers.  Despite the activity of the year, sales volume is still off by 34% August 2016 versus August 2015.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $266K, Down 0.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $276K, Up 20%; Median Days in RPR: 116, Up 6.4%; Sales Volume: 23, Down –75%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low, possibly an all-time low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

North Beach & North Beach Village continues to be the laggard among the 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches; and in my opinion, this makes it a great buy and is very likely going to see the greatest improvement in the next real estate boom.  Nearly half of all transactions in the past year have been in the 200-300K range, making it by far the most accessible location from a financial perspective for the average income.  Given it’s extraordinary location and ongoing development, I think, of all the zip codes, this is the place to find opportunities and Buy, Buy, Buy!

Furthermore, this area is displaying great chart & number characteristics pertinent to the subject of economics.  As listing volume remains flat at a 3-year high and sales volume plummets, the median listing price has finally begun to correct in kind.  I expect this trend to continue, minimally, perhaps bottoming out between 225K and 250K, telling me that we are at or near a Buy point.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $682K, Up 8.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $535K, Up 27.5%; Median Days in RPR: 130, Down –3.7%; Sales Volume: 12, Down –70.7%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low, possibly near an all-time low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The vast majority of sales over the past year have been under 600K.  However, Bal Harbour and Bay Harbor Islands have seen substantial sales in pre-construction & new construction as it is one of the wealthiest zip codes in the United States and therefore is one of the most desirable places to live.  Median listing price corrected from near 600K to 525K over the past 3 months and while we continue to be in a market correction, Bal Harbour & the Bay Harbor Islands will weather the storm far better than any of the other zip codes of the Miami Beaches.  They are few and far between in this area, but focus on distressed asset purchases in this area if you are looking to build in some cushion to your investment.  Now is definitely not a market where you should feel incentivized to over pay.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $360K, Up 1.1%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $330K, Up 31.5%; Median Days in RPR: 144, Up –15.2%; Sales Volume: 26, Down –84.1%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

There is a great deal of uncertainty in both the microeconomic and macroeconomic environment due to the forthcoming Presidential Election, and, people are beginning to wake up to the fact that the past 8 years of fiscal & monetary policies have created yet another asset bubble.  We stand between a couple of very likely alternatives, as the Federal Reserve is basically out of bullets.  There are three possibilities – either we will see massive inflation/hyperinflation, deflation on a scale that is unprecedented, or a volatile mix of both.  Keep in mind that the Miami Beaches are amongst the MOST desirable places in the world to live; so even if the Dollar tanks/is-devalued, we have the privy of very probably influx of Foreign Direct Investment; and this could cushion if not buoy the local beach markets.

As I indicated in my prior article, if you were planning to sell within the next 3 years; Sell Now! You, the Owner/Seller, have control of the contract you sign with your Broker.  Keep the term short (3-6 months) and ensure you can withdraw the listing with minimal notice (2 weeks to 1 month).  Be sure to get 2nd and even 3rd opinions from reputable Brokers regarding your property’s value.  Don’t be bullshitted by Brokers who simply will tell you what you want to hear for your listing!!!

Visit my MLS Website and Request Your Free Broker Price Opinion of Your Property!

Cheers,

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Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”