The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – May 2017 Results

MLS Search for Miami Real Estate Listings
Christopher J. Lazaro’s MLS Website is REBroker.Miami

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

As the Spring ended and Summer began, the month of May saw some interesting changes in data.  For example, the prior month, Miami Real Estate searches on the Internet were topped by foreign nationals in Brasil, but this month, Colombia has taken the top spot.  I asked a friend of mine why this might be, as only a couple of years ago it was my understanding Colombia was exploding with business opportunities.  He believes the country is likely to be the next nation is South America to follow Brasil, Argentina, and Venezuela in terms of shifting to a more socialist system, and by consequence, likely substantial corruption.  We will see how that situation unfolds, but one thing is clear, there is a lot of Colombian nationals searching South Florida for real estate opportunities presently.

Also in the news, after Memorial Day violence, there is a growing demand by locals and the politicians to do away with Urban Beach Week.  This has been an ongoing issue as seemingly every year there are dozens of dozens of arrests (in 2012 there were 431 arrests), dozens of guns confiscated, etc.  It is unfortunate that those who come here for that weekend seeking only music, sand, sun & fun are accompanied by armed, gangster-like ( I would not want to insult gangsters, particularly those of the days of Capone, who were reputedly gentlemen…murderers, yes, but well-dressed and well-mannered gentlemen overall).  I am all for putting an end to this weekend as it is common knowledge many locals, both renters and owners, literally flee the area ahead of this week/weekend for no other reason than this event.

I continue to try and improve the format of my articles.  If you have any suggestions (or requests), please let me know!  Now, onto the data!

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33139

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33139

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

There is a lot of construction in South Beach (and I will be covering these projects in a forthcoming issue); luxury, ultra-luxury, and a more “affordable” upper-end (500K+) class of assets being built and many of these are being listed the moment the building comes online, further driving listing volume to the upside.  Sales Volume has decreased, in large part to the well-known Summer Slowdown in real estate sales.  Also, people are not willing to overpay anymore just for the privilege of being on South Beach.  The Buyer’s Market continues and I am beginning to see some good opportunities come, and go quickly while overpriced assets languish on the market for an average of 4 months (twice the national average).

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33140

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33140

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is stalled at a 3-year high.

I love this area of the Miami beaches and recommend it highly.  The west side of this area is one of the most beautiful and family-oriented neighborhoods in all of the Miami Beaches.  A median listing price of 390K warrants any logical buyer to start viewing properties NOW as I do not see this phenomenon persisting for very long.

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33141

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33141

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Median List price is also at a NEW 3-year low.  I have been urging customers to consider buying in this area as I believe it represents the best and most affordable area-of-opportunity for an average family to own a piece of the Miami Beaches, and frankly, the location is superior for the working person who has to commute on a daily basis.  At $200-$300 per existing square foot, you cannot build anything for that cheap anymore!  I do not expect the market to move lower.  For some time there were assets selling in the low 200s per square foot for Class B condominium units, but those have grown fewer and more far between.  This is a Buyer’s Market and I think the waiting is over.  If you are waiting for lower prices on the retail (non-distressed) market, you will be both disappointed and be living elsewhere.

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33154

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33154

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3-year high.

Despite a spate of buying in the prior few months which drove sales volume higher (albeit to the 3-year average), it appears Bal Harbour is not immune to the Summer Slowdown, posting a new 3-year low in sales volume and a new 3-year high in listing volume.  Keep in mind, the median list price is well within its 3-year range AND Bal Harbour continues to be one of the most sought after places to live in the United States.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report for 33160

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report for 33160

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3-year high.

I have called Sunny Isles Beach “Home” for nearly 8 years and I am looking forward to having many more years as a resident here.  The City of Sunny Isles Beach has been undergoing a massive transformation since 1997 when the City first incorporated and was no longer part of the City of North Miami Beach.  I am looking forward to, hopefully sooner than later, enjoying some years here without an endless stream of construction vehicles and lane closures; and, in approximately 2 years, when the City completes its endeavor to sink all the power lines under the A1A and replace the ugly streetlamps with more aesthetically pleasing, and perhaps innovative lighting along the corridor.

Sales Volume is down and Listing Volume is up, however, more than HALF of all homes sold in the past year (over 300) have been under 600K.  There are still plenty of existing construction bargains (in my opinion) to be had.

Summary

Is it a good time to buy or sell?

This is the most commonly asked question of me.  It should be noted that the average time on market for listings ticked down by as much as 12% in all zip codes.  This could be an indicator that certain asset classes have reached their inflection points in the market, the point where Sellers have become more realistic with their asking prices and Buyers are coming back into the market as a result.

The overall market continues to correct slowly, and it remains to be seen whether or not this trend will worsen; as it stands right now it has been very slow and gradual; but painful enough to drive many Realtors from the Beaches in search of more active/easier markets to compete in; or, in some cases, move on to greener pastures in other fields.  However, if the US Dollar should weaken against the major currencies of the world, expect a jump in prices as Foreign Direct Investment will likely become resurgent as it did between 2010 and 2013.  As of late, the Dollar is well off its post-election highs, and some economists are predicting the Dollar will see new historical lows in as early as the next 1-2 years.

I believe that in some markets where the trend is up, if you are considering selling, it is always better to sell into a trend (or “too early” as Warren Buffet says); and if you are looking to buy, I would consider looking at markets that have corrected to their 3+ year averages or below to look for opportunities AND also consider price per square foot to buy versus to build.  There are a great number of opportunities to buy in the Miami Beaches, right now, to buy for a lot less than the cost to build new.

 

Noteworthy Articles & Studies from May 2017

  1. National Association of Realtors Commercial Real Estate Report – May 2017 – This is a 6MB download with an extensive analysis on emerging trends & risks in the Commercial Rel Estate Market – https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/reports/2017/2017-commercial-real-estate-alert-05-17-2017.pdf
  2. The Miami Association of Realtors Market Update:  Single Family Homes in Miami-Dade County showed another increase in sales in April.  As I have been commenting, the Condo Market is a mess, and this is weighing down the numbers for the Beach-centric reports I publish monthly, but single-family homes are a very strong market (56% jump in Luxury Single-Family Homes Sales!!!) right now making it a Seller’s Market for that asset class.  http://www.miamire.com/news/news/releases/2017/05/24/miami-single-family-home-sales-increase-again-in-april
  3. Luxury Condo Sales Slowing – http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/04/12/sales-slowing-down-miami-luxury-real-estate-market/
  4. In May, Colombia was the Top Country Searching for Real Estate in Miami: http://www.miamire.com/news/news/releases/2017/06/08/colombia-tops-all-countries-searching-miami-real-estate  This article lists the Top 10 Countries searching for real estate in Miami; dated June 8th, 2017.
About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – October 2016

For most tourists this is one of the happiest sites of their whole visit.
For most tourists this is one of the happiest sights of their whole visit.

Welcome to the October 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  Amidst the tremendous windup towards the Presidential Election and the Jewish Holidays, people still found the time to make real estate investments in the Miami Beaches.  After the abysmal sales month I reported in the Miami Beaches Market Pulse – September 2016, it was encouraging to see mid-high double-digit closed sales numbers as opposed to the single-digit sales of the prior month.  Sales Volume, year-over-year and year-over-year-over-year are still down considerably and continuing to decline.  Listing Volume continues to climb and/or hover at 3-5 year highs.  In basic economics, low demand & higher supply generally indicates lower prices ahead.  Combine that thought with the idea of a future of higher interest rates, AND a current trend where higher capitalization rates are now being demanded by investors purchasing leased (or to-be-leased) residential & commercial assets, it is no surprise to be seeing and expecting, lower final sales prices across most, if not all, asset classes throughout the country in the absence of demand to the contrary.  The real estate market has effectively peaked and I expect prices to continue to decline as more supply continues to enter the market.  Each asset class must be examined within its own market however.  In some cases on the Miami Beaches, there are assets that are quite probably as low as they will ever get; while at the same time there are others where it would serve the savvy buyer to wait a bit longer for a substantial savings.

What concerns me most of all, however, is the current state of the bond market.  I am going to go into extensive detail this coming month on our economic status, as a nation, and what I foresee as the possible permutations of outcomes are going forward. Bond yields are pushing higher, which means bond prices are dropping.  Bond prices drop when there is a greater amount of selling than buying.  If the current trends continue, especially if interest rates rise…even slightly, the ramifications to the credit markets going forward could be dire.  This will absolutely adversely effect asset prices negatively should the trend continue; and I would argue IT HAS TO.  Interest rates have been artificially low for far too long, and the market distortions this has created have not yet truly begun to be felt.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $395K, Down -0.7%; Median Est. Listing Price: $260K, Up 2.0%; Median Days in RPR: 135 Up 2%; Sales Volume: 89, Down –20.5%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The first few pages of the Market Activity & Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report says it all, very clearly, in both numbers and charts.  Click it and check out the PDF.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $550,  Up 14.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $465K, Up 22.4%; Median Days in RPR: 134, Up  9.8%; Sales Volume: 40, Down –40.3%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

The first few pages of the Market Activity & Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report says it all, very clearly, in both numbers and charts.  Click it and check out the PDF.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $271K, Up 2.7%; Median Est. Listing Price: $269K, Up 19.3%; Median Days in RPR: 114, Up 2.7%; Sales Volume: 61, Down –23.8%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The first few pages of the Market Activity & Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report says it all, very clearly, in both numbers and charts.  Click it and check out the PDF.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $678K, Up 3.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $510K, Up 21.7%; Median Days in RPR: 132, Down –4.3%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –8.3%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 The first few pages of the Market Activity & Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report says it all, very clearly, in both numbers and charts.  Click it and check out the PDF.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $360K, Up 2.3%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $320K, Up 23.6%; Median Days in RPR: 147, Up 11.4%; Sales Volume: 127, Down –12.4%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The first few pages of the Market Activity & Neighborhood & Real Estate Market Report says it all, very clearly, in both numbers and charts.  Click it and check out the PDF.

Miami Realtor, Miami Real Estate Professional
Christopher Lazaro, MBA – International Realtor of Miami

Navigating the real estate investment markets can seem overwhelming to the non-professional and can be detrimental to enter into without the proper guidance based on fundamental analysis of the markets.  Give me a call and let me service your real estate investment needs.  Whether you are a first time home buyer, or a savvy commercial real estate investor, myself and my team of agents can empower you to achieve your investment goals in the real estate market both here in Southeast Florida, as well as throughout the State of Florida.

Cheers,

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA

Licensed Real Estate Broker

1-800-798-9192 x333

MLS:  http://www.REBroker.Miami

Special Edition: The Miami Beaches Market Pulse: June 2016 – 1st Half of the Year Report, Part 1 of 2

Miami Beach
Aerial View of Miami Beach – South Beach & Fisher Island

As expected, the Miami Beaches continue to correct and listing volume continues to increase as more homeowners default on their mortgages and new construction projects complete, leading to the seemingly inevitable listing of many beautiful, yet vastly overpriced new construction units.  It should be noted that the media has finally jumped on the notion that not all is as perfect with the housing market, as so many seem to still often assume (simply because it, after all, is Miami Beach), as developers are either scrapping projects and selling their land or racing to complete their projects before the financial institutions backing them lose their confidence and pull funding (I still think it is still a bit premature for that to occur).

My June article is overdue, but my business in distressed assets has been growing rapidly, thus delaying me from making the time to publishing my data.  Fortunately the real estate business, as opposed to the stock market, moves like an air craft carrier; and the trends we have been seeing for more than 18 months continue to play out as expected.

I have already collected & uploaded my July data, and the June distressed data…so I will be brief in my commentary in this article as there is MUCH to be said in my forthcoming articles.  Tomorrow I will collect the August data and aspire to have that out in a more timely manner.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $391K, Up 1.1%; Median Est. Listing Price: $279K, Up 5.3%; Median Days in RPR: 120 Up 5.3%; Sales Volume: 104, Down –33.8%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $496K,  Up 4.6%; Median Est. Listing Price: $479K, Up 20.1%; Median Days in RPR: 120, – (flat); Sales Volume: 46, Down –27%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $262K, Up 0.1%; Median Est. Listing Price: $264K, Up 15.2%; Median Days in RPR: 109, Up –3.8%; Sales Volume: 75, Down –25.7%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $672K, Up 15.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $547K, Up 20.7%; Median Days in RPR: 131, Up 1.6%; Sales Volume: 28, Down –22.2%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $352K, Up 0.7%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $325K, Up 25%; Median Days in RPR: 125, Up 10.6%; Sales Volume: 89, Down –42.2%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Summary

Overall, Median Estimated Home Values & Median Estimated Listing Prices continue to climb; but as they do, Sales Volume continues to plummet, homes are on the market for longer periods of time, and listing inventory continues to build to new highs.

I do not necessarily concern myself with whether the market is going up or down.  In my profession, the experienced professional realizes that people will always need a place to live; and regardless of economic conditions, there will be Buyers and Sellers.

I do however feel as though we are at a precipice.  On one hand, assuming the Federal Reserve does raise interest rates, it will absolutely crush asset values.  It has been argued by some economists that we cannot raise interest rates (much) without forcing the US Government to default on it’s loans; and this is true.  Recently an economic paper was floated by one of the Federal Reserve board members regarding a call for additional “quantitative easing”, which is a very fancy phrase for “Printing More Money”.  Assuming this were to occur, it would have extraordinary ramifications on our economy; and as far as the housing market is concerned, it will drive assets (in terms of US Dollars) through the roof, however, that will not be because of an increase in real value, it will be because of inflation and a loss of the Dollar’s purchasing power.

Regardless of who becomes President, they will have a huge task ahead of them if this country has any hope of “normalizing” the asset markets and bringing fiscal responsibility back to the forefront of our government’s responsibilities.  We live in interesting times, and I am betting they (the Federal Reserve) will do another “quantitative easing”.  My recommendation is to buy a home, or investment(s) you can comfortably hold, and/or buy Silver and/or Gold.  More money printing will absolutely erode the value of the Dollar and hard assets are your best, legal, inflation hedge against a loss of purchasing power in the Dollar.

Top Listings of the Miami Beaches – January 2016

Miami Beaches Most Expensive Listings (01/03/2016)

Back in December, prior to the facelift of Real-Estate-Of-Miami, now BeachBroker.Miami, and the launch of my MLS/IDX Site, REBroker.Miami, I had an idea to begin publishing monthly articles of the top listings from each of the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches.  In this article, I feature 5 properties, one in each zip code, that is the single most expensive listing in each zip code as of January 3rd, 2016.  Each of the links below will download a full report in PDF format and contain pictures, as well as other pertinent information to each property.  Call me any time with questions or for showing appointments!

33139 – South Beach

For a $42,000,000 listing in South Beach, the listing agency only posted 7, less-than-choise photographs to describe this otherwise very large low-rise unit in SoFi, and as such, I will only a picture of the building.  The home features 4200 square feet, 6 bedrooms and 7 baths.  I find the listing confusing, and will have to call the agent because the MLS record contins verbiage such as: “floor plan possibilities”, “flexible zoning” etc.  In my opinion, as a home, this property would not sell for $10,000,000 let alone 42 million.  However, it came in on top (as the most expensive listing in South Beach).  Fear not though!  February’s top listing for 33139 will not disappoint!

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You can see the virtual tour of this property here:  http://www.propertypanorama.com/instaview/mia/A10006586

The Property Report can be download here —>  Property-Report_90-Alton-Rd-Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-39-50

 

33140 – North Beach

Moving on to far greener pastures indeed, this top listing lies just off Alton Road at the intersection of where the canal north of 48th Street meets the Bay.  Featuring 7 Bedrooms and 10 bathrooms with 17,055 square feet under air, this property screams “wretched excess”; right up my alley indeed!  It has a truly remarkable modern design and finishings throughout.  One look at this place and it would make you wonder on what planet the guys listing the 90 Alton Road property (featured above) are thinking!?

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The Virtual Tour can be found here:  http://www.propertypanorama.com/instaview/mia/A2047735

I highly recommend viewing this property report!:  Property-Report_5004-N-Bay-Rd-Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-25

 

33141 – North Bay Village

This beauty is expected to be completed before the end of March 2016.  Featuring a whopping 15,000 square feet, 7 bedrooms & 9 bathrooms, panoramic views of the bay; this extravagant home is listed at $30,500,000 USD.

Take the hands free virtual tour here –> http://www.propertypanorama.com/instaview/mia/A2189183

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For More Information & Pictures, Click Here –> Property-Report_6440-N-Bay-Rd-Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-34-57

 

33154 – Bal Harbour

Listed at $36,000,000 USD, this 8 bedroom, 10 bathroom mammoth home features 20,198 square feet under air conditioning.  Newly built (2015) and situated on nearly a half acre of property, this property has all the usual amenities one would expect of a home of this caliber.

I commend the listing agent on the quality of the photography and use of words in describing this work of art:

  The ultimate subtropical modern oasis, this just completed, museum quality residence was impeccably designed by award-winning architect Chad Opennheim in the most exclusive and secure community in Miami Beach, Bal Harbour. The residence was masterfully de signed to seamlessly blur the lines of indoor-outdoor with over 17,000 sqft of living space. Experience spectacular water and sunset views from a vantage point just 300 yards from one of only 2 inlets in Miami Beach, where the ocean meets the bay.

252 Bal Bay Drive

252 Bal Bay Drive Chad Oppenheim

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252 Bal Bay Drive Chad Oppenheim 252 Bal Bay Drive Chad Oppenheim

The Virtual Tour can be found at this link:  http://www.propertypanorama.com/instaview/mia/A2211507

The Property Report can be downloaded from here:  Property-Report_252-Bal-Bay-Dr-Bal-Harbour-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-31-09

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach

The most expensive listing in Sunny Isles Beach is a private island which as been listed for more than 1900 days (that has to be a record or something).  Listed at $49,500,000 USD, as of January 3rd it was listed as Pending Sale (hooray for tat listing office!).  The lot size is a total of 8.13 acres, perfect for a billionaire’s compound, or several large mansions, or even an extremely nice rental complex for an exclusive subset of the affluent & sophisticated 35-50 year old jet-set business professionals.

Here is the Property Report: Property-Report_4044-Island-Estates-Dr-Miami-FL-33160_2016-01-03-17-54-14

I promise something more creative than a piece of land, but I did want to start with the highest price listings on Miami Beach, and here they are as of January 3rd 2016.  I am already compiling my report for February and I will debut it next week.  I am still playing catchup with the massive influx of business my partner and I have received over the past 3 months.  It has been quite extraordinary!

Thank you for reading my article.  I love comments, constructive criticisms, and even the occasional flame.  Let me know!

Cheers,

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA

Licensed Real Estate Broker

 

Social Media Usage & Broker’s Liability (Updated May 2015)

I updated an article I posted back in 2013 with current information and tips regarding Social Media Usage.  Click the link below to go to the updated article.

Social Media Usage & Broker’s Liability (Updated May 2015).

 

Cheers,

Miami Realtor, Miami Real Estate Professional
Christopher Lazaro, MBA – International Realtor of Miami