*Updated* – The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – 2nd Quarter 2018

Sunrise on Miami Beach
Sunrise on Miami Beach

UPDATED:  Once again my brokerage business and other commitments including working on a NEW version of this blog site have taken substantial priority over my ability to publish the reports in as timely a manner as I would prefer.  As many of you may know, for the last several years my brokerage has maintained a substantial listing portfolio of distressed assets (short sales) throughout Southeast Florida.  What I have observed, in a nutshell, is that it is far more difficult to receive extensions and forestallments from the court, lenders are not as amicable as they once were in their negotiations (even when confronted with an independent general contractor report demonstrating substantial damages to a home they are looking to fetch a retail price for), and a substantial amount of resistance to closing from Sellers who are hopeful the recent upturn in the economy will somehow benefit and save them from having to sell their home and move; my response to the latter is to move on to a new place and start a new chapter in their lives with a property they can afford and do not have a long history of defaulting on.

Below are the usual reports by zip code and each is a snapshot in time as of the beginning of July 2018.  I would also encourage my readers to review the Market Focus report from the Miami Association of Realtors® by clicking here.

To see REAL-TIME Market Reports on most Southeast Florida cities, check out REBroker.Miami’s Market Reports by City.

This re-post is an update to the blog.  I pulled the 3rd Quarter Reports and will be writing my assessment of the data over the coming week.  I am looking forward to completing the newest version of BeachBroker.Miami (some new logo ideas too 😉 ) and launching it for the New Year.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139
Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139

 

Click here to receive the South Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the South Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Sales volume was up nearly 10% year over year with nearly all other data unchanged.  We continue to be in a Buyer’s Market for condominiums and we have transitioned to a Balanced Market from a Seller’s Market in single family homes.

After multi-year declines, it appears 2017 has seen an inflection point occur and Median Sales Price, Sales Volume and Listing Volume have normalized within medium to long-term ranges on the charts.

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL
Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL

 

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Listing Volume continues to flirt with 3-year highs and Sales Volume continues to be rangebound after bottoming in last quarter of 2017.  Median Sales Prices for listed properties hover at just over $1 Million, however, overall Median Sales Prices per Public Records (a much greater data sample) is at $500,000.  Newer and renovated properties are listing and selling for considerably more than their older and less updated equivalents.  This is evident when you look at the distribution of the Age Range of Homes Sold in the Neighborhood Report.

 

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.
An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.

 

Click here to receive the North Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the North Beach Neighborhood Report.

Median Home Values dropped 7.7% year over year as both Median Sales Price and Median Listing Prices also traded to the bottom of their 3-year ranges.  Upon a preliminary analysis, it appears a gentrification is in the process as much older properties are being purchased with either the intent of redevelopment or renovation.  I still stand by my position of the past several years that North Bay Village, specifically, offers one of the greatest values for your money when you consider location, community, and long-term investment outlook.

 

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over Atlantic Ocean
Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over the Atlantic Ocean

 

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Market Report.

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Neighborhood Report.

Listing Volume in Bal Harbour and the 33154 zip code continues to push new highs on the 3-chart as Median Sales Volume and Median Sales Price remain flatlined/rangebound for more than a year (circa 50 Listings and 900K respectively).  Average Time on the market is up over 10% vs the same time period last year while Sales Volume is down 31% compared to the same time period.  The condominium market is weighing heavily on this area as Buyers have pulled back from extraordinary valuations that I cannot see continuing as we head further into a rising interest rate market and a market-wide preference for single-family homes over condominiums.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida's Riviera
Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida’s Riviera

 

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

The Sunny Isles Beach market is percolating with Median List Prices at 3-year highs, Listing Volume at a 3-year High and Sales Volume at the top of its 2-year rangebound channel; however, this is not without consequence; Sales Volume year over year has plunged 15% year over year with average time on the market up nearly 10%.  This is a heavily condominium laden market and Buyers have begun to pull back again as Sellers of existing condominiums pushed prices up to take advantage of the past year’s bounce in existing condo sales; a bounce that I largely attributed to a more robust economy with bargain seekers, averse to purchasing new construction at ridiculously inflated prices, sought to take advantage of the near 4-year slide in existing condo sales and prices.  As interest rates rise I expect to see a further multi-year decline in both price and sales volume.

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – August 2016 vs August 2015

An afternoon on Miami Beach
An afternoon on Miami Beach

Welcome to another edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  This article covers August 2016 versus August 2015.  The Miami Beach Real Estate Markets have now been in a correction for at least 18 months and an equilibrium has not yet been established.  Listing Volumes are at or near 3 year highs and Sales Volumes (in so far as MLS is concerned) have been seeing a 2nd year of substantial declines.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $392K, Down -1.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $272K, Up 8.1%; Median Days in RPR: 130 Up 5.7%; Sales Volume: 44, Down –68.3%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is near a 3 year high.

Estimated Home Values have begun to correct; as I have indicated earlier, the values have been increasing despite the correction beginning more than 1 year ago.  Median Listing Price has been up, but there are a large number of new and renovated units hitting the market, listing volume remains near a 3 year high, and in kind, transaction volume has plummeted.  In the basic course of economics, prices must go down for equilibrium to be established.  Transaction Volume will continue to fall barring more macro-economic considerations, such as a substantial fall in the Dollar, which would bring in another round of Foreign Direct Investment.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $527K,  Up 7.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $475K, Up 20.3%; Median Days in RPR: 128, Up 1.6%; Sales Volume: 60, Down –34.1%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume has ticked up and is approaching it’s 3 year average.  Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.

This year in 33140, half of all transactions were over 600K!  Mid-Beach appears to have rebounded to a degree off of it’s lows.  It is still too early to tell if this is merely a bounce, or a greater change in trend.  Of note though, nearly 50% of all units sold were between 50-60 years old, which can possibly be attributed to entire building(s) being taken over by developers.  Despite the activity of the year, sales volume is still off by 34% August 2016 versus August 2015.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $266K, Down 0.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $276K, Up 20%; Median Days in RPR: 116, Up 6.4%; Sales Volume: 23, Down –75%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low, possibly an all-time low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

North Beach & North Beach Village continues to be the laggard among the 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches; and in my opinion, this makes it a great buy and is very likely going to see the greatest improvement in the next real estate boom.  Nearly half of all transactions in the past year have been in the 200-300K range, making it by far the most accessible location from a financial perspective for the average income.  Given it’s extraordinary location and ongoing development, I think, of all the zip codes, this is the place to find opportunities and Buy, Buy, Buy!

Furthermore, this area is displaying great chart & number characteristics pertinent to the subject of economics.  As listing volume remains flat at a 3-year high and sales volume plummets, the median listing price has finally begun to correct in kind.  I expect this trend to continue, minimally, perhaps bottoming out between 225K and 250K, telling me that we are at or near a Buy point.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $682K, Up 8.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $535K, Up 27.5%; Median Days in RPR: 130, Down –3.7%; Sales Volume: 12, Down –70.7%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low, possibly near an all-time low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

The vast majority of sales over the past year have been under 600K.  However, Bal Harbour and Bay Harbor Islands have seen substantial sales in pre-construction & new construction as it is one of the wealthiest zip codes in the United States and therefore is one of the most desirable places to live.  Median listing price corrected from near 600K to 525K over the past 3 months and while we continue to be in a market correction, Bal Harbour & the Bay Harbor Islands will weather the storm far better than any of the other zip codes of the Miami Beaches.  They are few and far between in this area, but focus on distressed asset purchases in this area if you are looking to build in some cushion to your investment.  Now is definitely not a market where you should feel incentivized to over pay.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $360K, Up 1.1%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $330K, Up 31.5%; Median Days in RPR: 144, Up –15.2%; Sales Volume: 26, Down –84.1%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

There is a great deal of uncertainty in both the microeconomic and macroeconomic environment due to the forthcoming Presidential Election, and, people are beginning to wake up to the fact that the past 8 years of fiscal & monetary policies have created yet another asset bubble.  We stand between a couple of very likely alternatives, as the Federal Reserve is basically out of bullets.  There are three possibilities – either we will see massive inflation/hyperinflation, deflation on a scale that is unprecedented, or a volatile mix of both.  Keep in mind that the Miami Beaches are amongst the MOST desirable places in the world to live; so even if the Dollar tanks/is-devalued, we have the privy of very probably influx of Foreign Direct Investment; and this could cushion if not buoy the local beach markets.

As I indicated in my prior article, if you were planning to sell within the next 3 years; Sell Now! You, the Owner/Seller, have control of the contract you sign with your Broker.  Keep the term short (3-6 months) and ensure you can withdraw the listing with minimal notice (2 weeks to 1 month).  Be sure to get 2nd and even 3rd opinions from reputable Brokers regarding your property’s value.  Don’t be bullshitted by Brokers who simply will tell you what you want to hear for your listing!!!

Visit my MLS Website and Request Your Free Broker Price Opinion of Your Property!

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – July 2016 vs July 2015

South Point & The Miami Beaches
South Point & The Miami Beaches

July was a lackluster month in terms of sales volume versus the same time period in 2015 as we saw marginal gains in listing volumes across all 5 zip codes.  I spent much of the Summer consumed with commercial real estate transactions and short sales of residential real estate throughout the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.   Via more than one analysis tool, the market is currently a BUYERS MARKET.   Listing Volume continues to increase while Sales Volume continues to decrease.  From basic observation, I am seeing what is likely a record number of price reductions in progress throughout the beaches.  We continue to remain in a market correction. In this issue and in August’s issue I am going to be brief with my commentary, as September’s issue will have a year-to-date 3rd quarter analysis & wrap-up as well as commentary regarding both the retail residential market and the residential distressed market.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $394K, Down -0.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $269K, Up 5.5%; Median Days in RPR: 119 Up 1.7%; Sales Volume: 61, Down –64.9%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $496K,  Up 2.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $465K, Up 19.3%; Median Days in RPR: 119, Down –4.8%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –62.9%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $262K, Down 1.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $260K, Up 15.6%; Median Days in RPR: 108, Up 1.9%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –73.2%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $682K, Up 10.8%; Median Est. Listing Price: $505K, Up 15%; Median Days in RPR: 133, Up 0.8%; Sales Volume: 17, Down –82.5%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $352K, Up 0.7%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $325K, Up 25%; Median Days in RPR: 125, Up –10.6%; Sales Volume: 89, Down –42.2%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – April 2016 vs. April 2015

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – April 2016 versus April 2015

The Miami Beaches
The Miami Beaches, Intra-coastal Waterways & North Biscayne Bay

It is a beautiful Saturday morning on the Miami Beaches as I write this blog post, which is a month overdue.  In my previous articles, particularly the February & March Market Pulse editions, I expounded upon existing & potential threats to the Miami Beaches Real Estate Markets (February), and I demonstrated 1st quarter sales volumes for the first quarter of the past 17 years according to tax records on the Miami Beaches.

Yes, it is true that existing home sales have taken a beating over the past two years with only a moderate drop in Median Sales Prices, but this has been due, largely, to 1)  New Construction / Pre-Construction Sales (which are generally non-MLS sales) and 2)  The falling in value of virtually every currency in the world relative to the US Dollar.  I am sure that the talking heads may also cite “political uncertainty” ahead of what is perhaps one of the most unique election cycles in more than 100 years; but I have yet to see an authoritative poll indicating such.

I will be more brief than usual and simply publish the April 2016 versus April 2015 MLS data (and May’s is next) this month as I am winding up for an extensive 2-part edition for June 2016 where I will cover the first half of the year compared to prior years (should I go all the way back to 2000 like I did in March?  Comments? ), and publish a separate, but related issue covering the Distressed Property Market.  Look for these in early to mid-July!

 

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $391K, Up 0.2%; Median Est. Listing Price: $275K, Up 1.9%; Median Days in RPR: 120 Up –; Sales Volume: 72, Down –55.6%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report!

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report!

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $493K,  Up 7%; Median Est. Listing Price: $485K, Up 27.8%; Median Days in RPR: 120, Down –13%; Sales Volume: 31, Down –52.3%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report!

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report!

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

 

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $267K, Up 6.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $255K, Up 11.4%; Median Days in RPR: 103, Down –1%; Sales Volume: 45, Down –48.9%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report!

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report!

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $676K, Up 19.1%; Median Est. Listing Price: $482K, Up 5.5%; Median Days in RPR: 120, Down –9.1%; Sales Volume: 26, Down –50%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $354K, Up 2.4%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $319K, Up 19%; Median Days in RPR: 113, Down –5%; Sales Volume: 78, Down –53.3%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Summary & Conclusion

In all 5 zip codes, MLS Sales Volume is abysmal and at a 3 year low, while listing volume is at a 3 year high.  What we are seeing (or a good part of it), is new construction (as much as 10-15% of units in each new building) are being listed / flipped on to the market by the original Buyers, thus raising the Median Estimated Home Value calculation AND the Median Estimated Listing Price.  I have noticed older units (Existing Homes greater than 1-2 years old), prices have been dropping on a per square foot basis, which explains the reduced time on market for MLS listed properties.  However, listing volume continues to increase monthly, and in order for the market to come into equilibrium, prices must come down, OR, the US Dollar needs to weaken against foreign currencies sufficiently enough in order to spur sales of existing homes and thus reverse the upward trend in listing volume and the downward trend in sales volume.

Recommendations

If you are planning on making a purchase that is 500,000 USD or more, I would recommend Bal Harbour.  It is a thriving and affluent community with great long-term prospects in terms of resilience of home values.  If you are planning a purchase of home and looking to invest less than $500,000 USD, I recommend the 33141 zip code, North Bay Village and North Beach, where I have been seeing some fantastic values / “bang for the buck” (and location); AND condos are selling in some cases for less than what it would cost to construct new.  It is definitely a good time to be buying in this emerging area while it is on the cheap!

This concludes my April Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  I will publish May’s results AND year-over-year-over-year comparisons this forthcoming week.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Cheers,

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA

Licensed Real Estate Broker, REALTOR®

Business Manager

Metro International Investments

Toll Free: 1-800-798-9192 ext. 333

International: 1-305-517-3086 ext. 333

Fax: 305-521-8995

License Number: BK3252123

B: www.BeachBroker.Miami

W: www.REBroker.Miami (MLS Search Available!)

W: www.MII.Miami

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – February 2016 vs. February 2015

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – February 2016 versus February 2015

The Miami Beaches
The Miami Beaches, Intra-coastal Waterways & North Biscayne Bay

Welcome to this month’s edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  I apologize for the delay, as it was my original intention to publish the January results circa the middle of February, however, recent business did not allow for the time and concentration required to perform a reasonably decent analysis; and THEN I seemed to have lost all the data files for the month of January!

Recent evidence suggests that the 16+ month long market correction on the beach has even impacted the luxury market.  I witnessed & read an article in February where the both famous & beautiful Anna Kournikova sold her Miami home for a tremendous 2 million under ask price! See Details of this here!  Even the famous “Jills” (arguably the de facto sales associates for the rich & famous) are feeling the pain (from a “typical” commission of 3-6% perspective) of a $60,000-$120,000 dollar  “loss” in projected commission revenue!  This saddens me, of course, as every Realtor® wants to be participating in a thriving market and given the usual Co-Broker nature of the business we generally all want to see each other succeed and make more money.  They are great agents with an excellent reputation, so if you choose not to use me, I would definitely look into using them for your luxury residential real estate needs.

Over the past month I have been speaking to a number of experienced real estate investors and brokers.  The general consensus is that a larger dip in the real estate market is forthcoming after the election.  I will not, at this point venture to guess the future as I am a data driven individual; however, I do see certain underlying, and as-of-yet, unquantifiable threats to the residential real estate market.  These “threats” are, admittedly, in one respect, conjecture; only because none of us are omnipotent, but the possibilities are significant enough to, at the very least, justify maintaining a watchful eye and remain cautiously optimistic at best.  In this issue I begin with the usual publication of the comparative numbers (February 2016 versus February 2015) by zip code, and provide commentary.  Then I go into what I perceive to be the top 4 threats to the South Florida Real Estate Market, something I should have probably expounded upon some time ago.

Reports by Zip Code

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $385K, Up 0.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $275K, Up 1.8%; Median Days in RPR: 117,  Down –7.1%; Sales Volume: 80, Down –27.3%

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report – 33139!

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report – 33139!

As I published in the December Report, I saw the market, specifically in Bal Harbour, showing signs that the Beaches were reaching an inflection point.  It does not surprise me that the downward trend in the data has been leveling off, after all, how low can it go?  This is Miami Beach!  However, let us keep in mind that the data you are seeing is suggesting that Sales Volume (for MLS related sales only) is down 27% year over year, and it is currently at a 3 year low.  Last year, this number was showing a drop (from 2014 year over year) as well, into the -30-50% range.  This indicates the Market Sales Volume is actually off by as much as 75% when compared to the Sales Volumes of the years 2013 & 2014.  The long and short of it is: yes, we are seeing an uptick; but to get back to normal conditions we need to see a sustained surge in transactions on existing home sales, which is the benchmark for home valuations.  Valuations being supported at lower volume, to me, indicates weakness in the market and market vulnerability to surges in new inventory.  Current Listing Volume (see the Neighborhood report for this) has passed the 3000 mark, a 3 year high.  So we have the most supply in three years, and the least demand in three years.  For sure, I believe prices are susceptible to further correction, especially if any of the “threats” I discuss later in this article begin to weigh on the market more heavily than they already have.

33140 – North Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $484K, Up 5.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $426K, Up 20.9%; Median Days in RPR: 114, Down –20.3%; Sales Volume: 35, Down –41.7%

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report – 33140

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report – 33140

Following suit with 33139, Sales Volume for 33140 is down a whopping 41.7%, a 3 year low; and Listing Volume is at nearly 1500, a 3 year high!  I do not think much commentary is needed given my commentary for 33139.  We are certainly seeing an uptick, which arguably could be seasonal, or due to an influx of retirees etc.  One thing remains certain, the market is nowhere near it’s recent “healthiest” which we saw in 2013 & 2014.

33141 – North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $270K, Up 9.8%; Median Est. Listing Price: $245K, Up 1.7%; Median Days in RPR: 101 Down –17.2%; Sales Volume: 35, Down –66.7%

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report – 33141

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report – 33141

I stand by my comments regarding this area from my December analysis; this area, I believe, has the greatest potential for long-term gains.  It is ideally situated, and a wonderful town to live in.  It is also the most affordable housing in the Miami Beaches by far.

Following suit (I rarely repeat myself as a practice of good writing, but I have a feeling I will be saying that statement another two times in this article; and I cannot understate, therefore must emphasize, the market action of the past 16 months plus), 33141’s Existing Home Sales Volume for MLS listed homes is off by a massive 66.7%.  Considering that is circa how much it was off this time last year as well, it means the sales volume is off by as much as 80-85% versus the 2013 & 2014 numbers.  The Realtors in the area must be hurting!  Sales Volume is currently at 35, a 3 year low, and Listing Volume is over 1500, a 3 year high!

This begs the question why so many people, when they find out I am in real estate, say “Oh, you must be doing great then!”.  It is truly amazing how long the sentiment created by the bounce of 2010 into 2013/2014 is lasting; and I find it surprising how many are simply unaware of the more-than-a-year-long correction in the Real Estate Market…even other agents & brokers (surely they have to notice they are not making as much money?!).  The fact is that my real “bread & butter” is commercial real estate.  I practice in residential real estate because I truly enjoy it; and residential Realtors® throw parties!  Nothing like a good Broker’s Open House 🙂

33154 – Bal Harbour

Median Est. Home Value: $665K, Up 22%; Median Est. Listing Price: $469K, Up – (flat); Median Days in RPR: 119, Down –7.8%; Sales Volume 31, Down –44.6%

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report – 33154

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report – 33154

Incredibly, the Median Estimated Home Value is up a tremendous 22% year over year.  How this is possible against the backdrop of a market correction evades me (for right now).  I am going to call my reporting company and see if they can tell me how they are calculating Median Estimated Home Values.  As of right now, I do not know; but I will.  Regardless of this, the same thing holds true in Bal Harbour as it does on the previously reported zip codes.  Sales Volume is at a 3 year low (down by 44.6% year over year) and Listing Volume is at a 3 year high with just under 900 units currently listed on MLS.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $345K, Down –0.3%; Median Est. Listing Price: $285K, Up 10%; Median Days in RPR: 115, Down –11.5%; Sales Volume: 132: Up 11.9%

Click here to receive the Market Activity Report – 33160

Click here to receive the Neighborhood Report – 33160

Sunny Isles Beach is where I call home.  Surprisingly, Sunny Isles Beach has bucked the trend of the rest of the zip codes on Miami Beach!  Sales Volume is actually up, a first in more than a year of looking at these specific reports.  I believe this may be due to something unusual skewing the data, such as Pre-Constructions and unsold New Constructions being listed on MLS, and therefore when the sales of these new projects ultimately close, they get logged.  Most pre-constructions and new constructions are never listed on MLS as they are typically absorbed by the market via the Builder’s own sales office.

Listing Volume is at a 3 year high, and Sales Volume, while not at a 3 year low, is close to the 3 year low.  Median Sales Price has spiked, markedly from the low 200Ks to the high 700K range.  This tells me that one or more VERY expensive properties sold this past month.  Regarding Sales Volume, please keep in mind that most of last year (you can check my May 2015 report and others) regularly demonstrated, month after month. Sales Volume being off by 50+% every month year over year.  While this spike in activity is encouraging, as I said before, we will need to see a sustained surge in market activity before anyone can begin declaring the market correction is over.

An article in Real Deal recently came out demonstrating how home prices in South Florida are still substantially off of their peak.  It also goes into some of the things I touch on later in this article.  The article is entitled “South Florida Home Prices Still Far From Peak: Report – Price Growth Could Continue To Slow Due To Global Macroeconomic Uncertainty”.

Lastly, I do not believe that Home Values have truly begun to reflect the market correction.  When I find more on how this is being calculated, I will update this article further and, with any luck, have something cogent to share regarding Home Values respective of actual market activity.

 

Potential Market Threats

First and foremost in my mind is the result of the appreciation of the US Dollar against virtually every other currency in the world; and in many respects, currency appreciation is a good thing (unless you are and exporter or producing goods to sell abroad, which equates to your goods & services being more expensive than similar goods and services produced in a nation with a weaker currency).  However, after the mortgage crisis, foreigners “ran towards the blast” (Peter Schiff, Las Vegas Money Show Lecture – 2013).  As a result of this substantial foreign direct investment, our currency has been enjoying a “propping up” effect.  I will explain further but for a really good (and funny) analysis, I recommend clicking the Money Show Link above.  I do believe that this recent boost in the dollar is temporary as our increasingly socialist policies have put the Dollar in a downtrend starting as far back as the 1960s.  Here is a long-term chart of the US Dollar:

US Dollar remains in a long-term downtrend
US Dollar remains in a long-term downtrend

Several years ago there was a deluge of foreign direct investment into the United States (especially in South Florida) as foreign nationals sought to:

1) take advantage of the distressed asset market which was the result of the 2008-2010 mortgage crisis,

2) expatriate capital from more socialist countries where the government risk to their capital is greater (reference the austerity measures in Cypress, where nearly every wealthy citizen with more than 100,000 USD equivalent on deposit in the country saw an overnight, and substantial, haircut out of their bank accounts), and escape ludicrously abusive tax policies to fund their extraordinary entitlement programs,

3) gain permanent resident status (“Green Card”) via the United States EB5 program (or other methods) by investing substantial (at the time, 500K and 1M dollar investments) amounts of capital into the United States.

5 Year Chart of the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar
5 Year Chart of the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar

Threat #1 – Currency Risk:  In many cases, international financing was used, typically 50% equity & 50% financing.  When this occurred (for example purposes we will use a Canadian citizen using Canadian Dollars), the Canadian Dollar was par with the US Dollar (meaning one US Dollar was equal in value to one Canadian Dollar.  This has changed significantly over the past couple of years.  Now, the Canadian Dollar is approximately one half the value of the US Dollar.  Understand that US Dollars were borrowed, and now it takes nearly 2 times the number of Canadian Dollars to pay for each US Dollar that was borrowed.  In this non-fiction example, the drop in commodities prices, specifically oil, has crushed the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar over the past several years.

The example is +/- true & valid with numerous currencies throughout the world, such as the Russian Ruble (rightwhich “fell out of bed” in late

The Russian Ruble versus the US Dollar - 5 Year Chart
The Russian Ruble versus the US Dollar – 5 Year Chart

2014 into early 2015),  Brazilian Real (rightmajor political upheaval in progress as a decade plus of corruption and embezzlement is being exposed AND the fall in commodity prices, especially sugar, has weighed substantially on their currency, which has also moved into double digit inflation!), the Argentinian Peso (belowwhere long standing socialist policies have made the currency virtually worthless), and the Venezuelan Bolivar (belowwhose chart clearly demonstrates the effects of communism).

The Venezuelan Bolivar versus the US Dollar - 5 Year Chart
The Venezuelan Bolivar versus the US Dollar – 5 Year Chart

To make matters potentially darker, these international loans have a 3-7 year lifespan.  They are NOT 30 year mortgages!  At the very least, even if only 5% of all international borrowers get

The Brazilian Real versus the US Dollar - 5 Year Chart
The Brazilian Real versus the US Dollar – 5 Year Chart

hammered by the result of the Currency Risk they are now getting burned by, we are still looking at thousands of distressed assets flowing onto the marketplace nationwide; especially here in Southeast Florida, which has rapidly grown into a top international destination that has attracted billions of dollars in foreign direct investment!

The Argentinian Peso versus the US Dollar - 5 Year Chart
The Argentinian Peso versus the US Dollar – 5 Year Chart

I should note that my firm’s best opportunities & customers are Argentinian and Venezuelan groups who are, for lack of a more accurate term, “Crowd Funding”, and bringing large amounts of capital into the United States.  These investors are doing everything they can to expatriate money from their home nations and invest in the United States; which begs the question in our own political forum; “If Socialism works so well, why are so many people trying to come to the United States to escape it?”.  It should be obvious in the charts that socialism is not healthy for a nation’s currency.  This leads me to my next “threat”.

Threat #2 – Our Government:  The Democratic Party candidates, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have either stated (Bernie) or all but stated (Hillary), they wish to lead our nation down the same path (to ruin it would appear).  This year is an election year, and I believe that the United States is at a precipice, and never before has an election carried such weight on both the near and far future of our economy; and socio-economic stability.  These two candidates wish to create and expand entitlement programs, to be fueled by greater taxation and use of our nation’s printing press.  Members of the Democratic Party and Congressmen have floated ideas on doing away with your ability, as a homeowner, to deduct the interest you pay on your mortgage from your taxable income.  To do away with it entirely would be catastrophic to average households throughout the United States!  Others have suggested “modifying” it further than it already has been; and in my experience the government has a short-sighted habit of throwing boulders into a lake not realizing the tsunami it creates at the other side of that proverbial lake.

Consider this, a $200,000 home at 4%, on the first year of purchase, would allow you to deduct $8,000 from your taxable income; and this benefit allows you to essentially save $2,000 on your tax bill if you are in the 25% tax bracket (making between 37,650 and 91,150 if you are a single filer.  See picture for more detail below).  These two politicians would have you believe that the US Economy is recovering due to the policies their party supports; however, data suggests otherwise. Money Magazine published an article in September 2015 entitled “Typical American Family Earned $53,657 Last Year”.  It is good reading and can certainly help put things into perspective, especially when evaluating how, if we should see yet another Democratic Party Candidate ascend to the Presidency, home values & net incomes may be effected.

http://taxfoundation.org/article/2016-tax-brackets
Source: http://taxfoundation.org/article/2016-tax-brackets

This equates to about 3-5% of total gross income FOR THE YEAR for the average tax paying citizen!  That $2,000 is extremely important to many American families; and even if it is not (for some), it has a wide array of better uses than in the Federal Government’s hands!  This is money that can be invested (for college, retirement etc), or can be spent on goods & services, thus further fueling our economy and increasing our economy’s Velocity of Money, which today is abysmally and historically low (see chart from 1959 until end of 2015 below):

The Velocity of Money Chart
Gross Domestic Product Adjusted for Monetary Base
Velocity of Money Chart
Velocity of Money Chart

 The Democrats/Liberals/Progressives/Socialists (all synonyms) claim that the 100+ Billion dollars that would be generated in tax revenues by eliminating deductions for the “rich” could be used to reduce the national debt, and they are correct; those revenues could be used in such a manner.  However, all of them have been pontificating about expanding entitlements and creating new ones.  In my view, should they move ahead with further reforms, they will find new and interesting ways of squandering our nation’s (your) wealth.  In addition, once you start taking money away from the “rich”, a better term for them would be “The Employer Class”, they (the “rich”) begin to pull back (i.e: they start firing people and cutting expenses and limiting new investments which create jobs), and so goes the cascading tsunami across the lake (borrowing from my previous analogy). Furthermore, according to the National Association of Realtors, home values would see upwards of a 15% decline, on average, throughout the country if this is done away with.

Lastly, these candidates have a “print more money” policy, as if this does not have consequences.  Every nation in the world has begun hedging away from the US Dollar as it is nearly obvious to anyone with a reasonable amount of education that The Dollar’s status as a Reserve Currency is in serious jeopardy.  The media deliberately does not put this in front of you, but the fact remains you can only print money for so long before it becomes valueless.  If the United States continues on this path, it will eventually find itself (sooner than later many reputed economists believe) in the midst of a Currency Crisis.  To explain this; if I had a way of turning all the sand of Florida’s beaches into gold, how valuable would gold be?  I conclude “Threat #2” with the chart below which depicts the United States Money Supply.

The United States Money Supply has gone hyperbolic!
The United States Money Supply (our monetary base) has gone hyperbolic!

Threat #3 – New Construction & Glut of New Inventory

Last summer I read an article in the Miami Herald.  It is entitled:  At least a dozen new South Florida condo projects in limbo amid changing market conditions.  I have been hearing rumblings that pre-sales have slowed, and while it could be the market pulling back to do some digesting, it could also be the “inflection point” they mention in the last paragraph of the article; meaning we have possibly seen the peak of this real estate cycle.  In either case, we have many thousands of new units on hand in inventory, and should it be the end of the most recent boom in the market, developers will rush to finish their projects as fast as possible and dump the new inventory on the market.  If we are not at the end of the boom, we have already seen over 3000 new units come online, over 10,000 more currently being built, and a projected 28,000 in the planning stages.  Should all of these come online, it will only put further pressure on the existing home sales, and in my opinion, drive prices down as listing volume rises and sales volume continues to plummet due to already deteriorating global macroeconomic fundamentals.

Threat #4 – The Weather

Hurricane Wilma in the Gulf of Mexico, October 23rd 2005
Hurricane Wilma in the Gulf of Mexico, October 23rd 2005

I believe I am stating the obvious here, however, it is worth mentioning as it is a factor.  It has been over 10 years since the last major hurricane struck South Florida.  In that time tens of thousands of people from all over the nation, and the world, have moved here to make Florida their home.  I was here during the 2000s, and I can tell you that after Hurricane Wilma (October 2005), the entire South Florida Real Estate Market completely stalled, as the shock and awe of the event set in to the population.  I am fairly confident that a strong Category 2, to (God forbid) a Category 5 hurricane making landfall between Homestead, FL and West Palm Beach, FL would create a rush to sell in this region as there are many people who will be panicked after such an event, and currently cannot comprehend the vast power of one of these storms.  Following such a storm, they will strongly reconsider their wanting to live in a place where such a beast is possible.  While I hope the current pattern holds and these storms continue to remain out at sea, we are fast approaching Hurricane Season 2016 (beginning in June).

That concludes my analysis for this month.  If you have any questions, comments, feedback or would like to explore purchasing a home; give me a call any time.  Keep in mind you can always use http://REBroker.Miami to browse Homes for Sale and For Rent on the Miami Association of Realtors MLS.