*Updated* – The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – 2nd Quarter 2018

Sunrise on Miami Beach
Sunrise on Miami Beach

UPDATED:  Once again my brokerage business and other commitments including working on a NEW version of this blog site have taken substantial priority over my ability to publish the reports in as timely a manner as I would prefer.  As many of you may know, for the last several years my brokerage has maintained a substantial listing portfolio of distressed assets (short sales) throughout Southeast Florida.  What I have observed, in a nutshell, is that it is far more difficult to receive extensions and forestallments from the court, lenders are not as amicable as they once were in their negotiations (even when confronted with an independent general contractor report demonstrating substantial damages to a home they are looking to fetch a retail price for), and a substantial amount of resistance to closing from Sellers who are hopeful the recent upturn in the economy will somehow benefit and save them from having to sell their home and move; my response to the latter is to move on to a new place and start a new chapter in their lives with a property they can afford and do not have a long history of defaulting on.

Below are the usual reports by zip code and each is a snapshot in time as of the beginning of July 2018.  I would also encourage my readers to review the Market Focus report from the Miami Association of Realtors® by clicking here.

To see REAL-TIME Market Reports on most Southeast Florida cities, check out REBroker.Miami’s Market Reports by City.

This re-post is an update to the blog.  I pulled the 3rd Quarter Reports and will be writing my assessment of the data over the coming week.  I am looking forward to completing the newest version of BeachBroker.Miami (some new logo ideas too 😉 ) and launching it for the New Year.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139
Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139

 

Click here to receive the South Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the South Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Sales volume was up nearly 10% year over year with nearly all other data unchanged.  We continue to be in a Buyer’s Market for condominiums and we have transitioned to a Balanced Market from a Seller’s Market in single family homes.

After multi-year declines, it appears 2017 has seen an inflection point occur and Median Sales Price, Sales Volume and Listing Volume have normalized within medium to long-term ranges on the charts.

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL
Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL

 

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Listing Volume continues to flirt with 3-year highs and Sales Volume continues to be rangebound after bottoming in last quarter of 2017.  Median Sales Prices for listed properties hover at just over $1 Million, however, overall Median Sales Prices per Public Records (a much greater data sample) is at $500,000.  Newer and renovated properties are listing and selling for considerably more than their older and less updated equivalents.  This is evident when you look at the distribution of the Age Range of Homes Sold in the Neighborhood Report.

 

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.
An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.

 

Click here to receive the North Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the North Beach Neighborhood Report.

Median Home Values dropped 7.7% year over year as both Median Sales Price and Median Listing Prices also traded to the bottom of their 3-year ranges.  Upon a preliminary analysis, it appears a gentrification is in the process as much older properties are being purchased with either the intent of redevelopment or renovation.  I still stand by my position of the past several years that North Bay Village, specifically, offers one of the greatest values for your money when you consider location, community, and long-term investment outlook.

 

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over Atlantic Ocean
Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over the Atlantic Ocean

 

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Market Report.

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Neighborhood Report.

Listing Volume in Bal Harbour and the 33154 zip code continues to push new highs on the 3-chart as Median Sales Volume and Median Sales Price remain flatlined/rangebound for more than a year (circa 50 Listings and 900K respectively).  Average Time on the market is up over 10% vs the same time period last year while Sales Volume is down 31% compared to the same time period.  The condominium market is weighing heavily on this area as Buyers have pulled back from extraordinary valuations that I cannot see continuing as we head further into a rising interest rate market and a market-wide preference for single-family homes over condominiums.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida's Riviera
Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida’s Riviera

 

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

The Sunny Isles Beach market is percolating with Median List Prices at 3-year highs, Listing Volume at a 3-year High and Sales Volume at the top of its 2-year rangebound channel; however, this is not without consequence; Sales Volume year over year has plunged 15% year over year with average time on the market up nearly 10%.  This is a heavily condominium laden market and Buyers have begun to pull back again as Sellers of existing condominiums pushed prices up to take advantage of the past year’s bounce in existing condo sales; a bounce that I largely attributed to a more robust economy with bargain seekers, averse to purchasing new construction at ridiculously inflated prices, sought to take advantage of the near 4-year slide in existing condo sales and prices.  As interest rates rise I expect to see a further multi-year decline in both price and sales volume.

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – August 2017 (Updated)

My MLS Website: http://REBroker.Miami is New & Improved!
My MLS Website: http://REBroker.Miami is New & Improved!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

NOTE:  The data for the month of August may be SKEWED due to the impacts of Hurricane Irma.  Typically, numbers are due to be inputted into MLS by Realtors by the 15th of the following month.  Given that power was not restored until well after the 15th (they say the 19th, but I do not believe that is true),  This report and the September report may not reflect the true state of the market in terms of both listing volume and sales volume.

See the Miami Association of Realtors® Market Focus Report video for August 2017 here.

Due to the impacts of the Hurricane, I am withholding commentary (and have removed some previously written commentary) for the Months of August & September 2017.  The October report will be a full report as I typically publish and I will be sure to note any spikes in listing volume etc, perhaps due to the hurricane.  I am also keeping an eye out for surveys of homeowners, as I am interested in knowing what the aggregate general public’s reaction(s) and feeling(s) is/are regarding the hurricane and it’s aftermath.

I have attached the reports.  These may or may not have been affected by the hurricane, but I prefer to be sure about what I am looking at.  Much of the data is relevant of course, what is and has been listed and sales that did occur, and were documented, are properly recorded.

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

 

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

 

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

 

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – December 2016 Results

Welcome to Miami Beach - Christmas
Welcome to Miami Beach – Christmas

Welcome to the December Results Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  I truly hope everyone had a happy & healthy holiday season and wish you all the very best in 2017!

The Miami Beaches are especially beautiful during the holiday season with mesmerizing lighting and festive decorations running from Golden Beach through South Beach to South Pointe Park.

I will be as brief as possible in this report as I am drafting the 2016 year-end wrap-up report for the beaches and Miami-Dade County as a whole which I expect to have completed later this week.

The data I am publishing today remains consistent with the findings of the Miami Association of REALTORS® Intelligence Report for November 2016.  In a nutshell, there is strong demand for single family homes throughout the county; and therefore that market is up nearly 14% for the year, higher than it has been since as early as 2009.  It is a Seller’s Market for single family homes county-wide.  However, the condo market continues to decline (down over 11% year over year); leaving that market in a Buyer’s Market.  Given the concentration of condos on the Miami Beaches, the overall aggregate sales numbers have been weighed down considerably when contrasted against the backdrop of the rest of the county due to the weakness in the condo market.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & the Venetian Islands

33139 Market Snapshot Dec 2016 vs. December 2016
33139 Market Snapshot Dec 2016 vs. December 2016

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

33139 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume - December 2016
33139 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – December 2016
33139 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume - December 2016
33139 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume – December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


33140 – Mid-Beach

The 33140 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
The 33140 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

33140 - Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume - December 2016
33140 – Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – December 2016
33140 - Median List Price vs. Listing Volume - December 2016
33140 – Median List Price vs. Listing Volume – December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year NEW high.  


33141 – North Beach, Normandy Island & North Bay Village

The 33141 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
The 33141 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

33141 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume
33141 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume
33141 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume
33141 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 NEW year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

33154 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
33154 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

33154 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume - December 2016
33154 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume – December 2016
33154 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume - December 2016
33154 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume – December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

33160 Market Snapshot - December 2016 vs. December 2015
33160 Market Snapshot – December 2016 vs. December 2015

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

33160 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume for December 2016
33160 Median Sales Price vs. Sales Volume for December 2016
33160 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume for December 2016
33160 Median List Price vs. Listing Volume for December 2016

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 NEW year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.


As I mentioned in my introduction, the condo market is weighing heavily on the overall market; and because of this, this is a time when Buyers can negotiate the best possible deals on condo purchases.  I encourage you to visit my MLS website: http://www,REBroker.Miami and inquire about any Miami Real Estate listing you may be interested in.  I will be happy to work with you towards your real estate ambitions and welcome you into the Miami Beach Lifestyle!

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – November 2016 Results

An afternoon on Miami Beach
An afternoon on Miami Beach

Welcome to the November 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  In this issue I will be simply laying out the data.  For my latest commentary, forecasts and recommendations, please reference my 3rd Quarter 2016 Market Analysis for the Miami Beaches, which included information on what appears to be a resurgence in the distressed asset market. Additional analysis, explaining the macroeconomic threats & challenges facing the Miami Beaches can be found in my February 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse and in my 1st Quarter 2016 Analysis of the Miami Beaches Real Estate Market.

My next full length analysese will not be published until early to mid January 2017 when I wrap up the 2016 Retail & Distressed Miami Beach Real Estate Markets in what will be two or three full-length reports covering the data and developments of 2016; and looking forward towards forecasting the 2017 economic year from a real estate broker & investor’s perspective.

 

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $387K, Down -1.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $150K, Down -42.3%; Median Days in RPR: 126 Down –6.7%; Sales Volume: 73, Down –31.1%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume sets a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

OF NOTE for 33139 (found in the Neighborhood Report):

33139 Median Listing Prices takes a HUGE dive!
33139 Median Listing Prices takes a HUGE dive!  Listing Volume at NEW 3 Year High!

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $534K,  Up 11.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $377K, Down 10.2%; Median Days in RPR: 132, Up 5.6%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –52.9%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high. 

See the Neighborhood Report (above) for full graphs and statistics.  Similar to 33139, this area is seeing a drop in both Sales Volume and Median Listing Price while at the same time seeing a build up in Listing Volume / Available Inventory For Sale.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-39-38-pm

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $273K, Up 1.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $198K, Down -17.5%; Median Days in RPR: 102, Down –4.7%; Sales Volume: 56, Down –37.8%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Of Note – Listing Volume continues to spike.  I still believe the best-deals-for-the-location are to be found HERE!!  Call me for more details!

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-31-38-pm

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $668K, Up 4.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $399K, Down 16.2%; Median Days in RPR: 131, Down –3%; Sales Volume: 20, Down –50%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Of Note – Median Listing Price is ALSO at a 3-Year Low:

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-38-05-pm

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $354K, Up 0.4%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $239K, Down 9.8%; Median Days in RPR: 145, Up 10.7%; Sales Volume: 87, Down –31.%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Of Note – Median Listing Price continues to decline!

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-45-23-pm

 It has been a wonderful holiday season and I hope all of you have been enjoying as well.  This is a time for both introspection and giving as we head into a brand new year.  For those who have emailed me in the past several months about NOT providing e

And, let me not forgot:  For those who have emailed me or commented otherwise, in the past several months, about NOT providing enough analysis or data; I have only this to say; “Bitch, PAY ME!”.  My service via this blog is both a hobby and, as I said…a service; which I perform at my leisure.  My vision and goal over 2017 is to expand the usefulness of this website to become a more encompassing resource for people to better get a feel for not only the real estate market, but the growing culture of the Miami Beaches Community.

My next blogs will happen in a series of 3-4 posts before Mid-January.  I wish you all a HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – July 2016 vs July 2015

South Point & The Miami Beaches
South Point & The Miami Beaches

July was a lackluster month in terms of sales volume versus the same time period in 2015 as we saw marginal gains in listing volumes across all 5 zip codes.  I spent much of the Summer consumed with commercial real estate transactions and short sales of residential real estate throughout the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.   Via more than one analysis tool, the market is currently a BUYERS MARKET.   Listing Volume continues to increase while Sales Volume continues to decrease.  From basic observation, I am seeing what is likely a record number of price reductions in progress throughout the beaches.  We continue to remain in a market correction. In this issue and in August’s issue I am going to be brief with my commentary, as September’s issue will have a year-to-date 3rd quarter analysis & wrap-up as well as commentary regarding both the retail residential market and the residential distressed market.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $394K, Down -0.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $269K, Up 5.5%; Median Days in RPR: 119 Up 1.7%; Sales Volume: 61, Down –64.9%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $496K,  Up 2.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $465K, Up 19.3%; Median Days in RPR: 119, Down –4.8%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –62.9%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $262K, Down 1.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $260K, Up 15.6%; Median Days in RPR: 108, Up 1.9%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –73.2%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $682K, Up 10.8%; Median Est. Listing Price: $505K, Up 15%; Median Days in RPR: 133, Up 0.8%; Sales Volume: 17, Down –82.5%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $352K, Up 0.7%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $325K, Up 25%; Median Days in RPR: 125, Up –10.6%; Sales Volume: 89, Down –42.2%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse: 2015 Year End Wrap Up – (February 2016 Update)

Miami Beach
Looking across the intracoastal waterway to Miami Beach

The Miami Beaches 2015 Year End Market Analysis

Hello and Happy New Year to All!  I am a little late in publishing this; life & business sometimes gets in the way; but 2015 is now history (as well as January 2016!).  However, data driven bloggers, like myself, and other analysts continue gathering and compiling their numbers (and putting their tax returns together like everyone else 😦  ) to make their reports.  Heck, it takes whole quarters (or more) for our own government to figure out if & when we enter a recession (obviously they are too wealthy for our own good 😉 ).

I pulled the latest & greatest RPR Market & Neighborhood Reports for the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches and present to you the December 2015 versus December 2014 Report.  Here are the results:

33139 – South Beach

While I cannot speak for other agents, my firm saw the most sales activity in South Beach compared to anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.  South Beach continues to have a tremendous allure both nationally and internationally.

Median Est. Home Value: $397K (Up 4.2%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $237K (Down –5.2%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –13.4%) / Sales Volume: 95 (Down –26.9%)

The 33139 Market Activity Report for December 2015:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-40-18

Sales volume continues to decline in year over year comparisons of each month; however, I am noticing signs of an inflection point in that the number of days listed before a property sells has dropped by nearly 14%.  If sales volume in the coming months flattens (by comparison to the prior year’s month being compared) or rises, it could potentially indicate a good time to buy in 33139.  My recommendations are based on long term (for the purposes of this blog); 5-10 years or more.  This blog is not intended (unless I specifically say so in a specific article) for Buy/Flip or Buy/Rehab/Flip strategies to be implemented upon.

December 2015 Neighborhood Report for 33139

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-40-24

Listing Volume (number of homes currently listed for sale) is 50% higher than January of 2013.  This means there is a much greater number of choices available to the buyer.  While oceanside condos are holding steady, a now 13 month long correction in ask prices for homes being listed continues.  In addition, I recall 2 & 3 years ago there not being a large amount of high-end rentals available anywhere on the beaches during the October-April season.  This season I did a quick search on MLS spanning all 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches for rentals that range between $7000 and $10000 dollars per month and found more than 300 of them!  Further analysis is necessary, but I am fairly confident the luxury market is taking a hit too.

33140 – North Beach

I am not quite sure what the problem is with this market but after several thousand dollars in Realtor.com advertising to acquire buyers for this zip code, I have yet to even show a property in this zip code over the past 2 quarters!  As a result I am on the verge of dropping it all together and seeing if I can buy another slot elsewhere.  Perhaps my luck will change?  With that said, here are the December 2015 versus December 2014 numbers:

Median Est. Home Value: $481K (Up 2.1%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $377K (Up 5%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –24.7%) / Sales Volume: 49 (Down –10.9%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33140:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-35

Clearly a rebound is occurring in this area (and I do happen to love the area personally…it just has not been my best zip code this year).  Sales volume has started to flatten (as I mentioned earlier how this might be a good thing) compared to prior month comparisons, where it was off 50% year over year, and the average number of days a property is listed before it sells has plummeted by 25%.  This is great news for Sellers in this market and a potential warning to Buyers who are looking.

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-41

Listing Volume is 50% higher than it was during the same time period in 2013, however, over that same period of time home values and asking prices have remained stable / mostly unchanged.  This is an area that is currently undergoing many changes in terms of both demographics, new construction, and rehabilitation of older buildings.  I believe it represents a great investment opportunity and it is genuinely a very safe, beautiful area to live.

33141 – North Bay Village & Atlantic Heights

This area, in my opinion, represents one of the greatest values anywhere for the location alone.  The median home value is 100,000+ dollars less than ANYWHERE else on the Miami Beaches.  Average Income Families can actually afford to buy and live here!  I think it is grossly undervalued relative to it’s long term (5-10 years) potential.  In addition, it has a wonderful “small town” / “village” feel & appeal.  New construction is on the rise, and that will absolutely, at some point, begat more assemblage deals for the real estate brokers and developers; and ultimately this area will begin to resemble the other 4 zip codes.  My recommendation is to buy, hold/rent and buy often.

Median Est. Home Value: $271K (Up 10.7%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $185K (Down –22.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 95 (Down –18.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Down –38.1%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33141:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-35-11

Once again, listing volumes are over 50% higher than two years prior, sales volume is lower than any time over the past 2 years, and the median listing price is substantially lower, which I attribute to an increase in the number of 1 and 2 bedroom homes in older buildings that quite probably need either rehabilitation or demolition.  I believe this area is two or three real estate cycles from achieving a peak in greatness and desirability; but I would hesitate to call investment here speculation given the values I have personally found, shown and sold in this area (I will not be discontinuing this zip code with Realtor.com if that tells you anything).  To boot, the neighborhood is wonderfully better than it was 10 years ago.  Change is happening; but as we all know in real estate, it happens over years, not days or weeks.

The 33141 Neighborhood Report:

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-35-22

33154 – Bal Harbour

Certainly one of the most desirable zip codes to live in within the continental United States.  Bal Harbour represents the epitome of affluence with a far more conservative appeal than anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.

Median Est. Home Value: $648K (Up 22%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $387K (Down –7.8%) / Median Days in RPR 119 (Down –9.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Up 17.6%)

This is perhaps the best report and comparison I have seen since I began reporting on the beaches just after the market correction began.  33154 has begun to rebound strongly.  Sales Volume is up, Average Number of Days on the Market is down, and the estimated home values have rocketed by 22% in a single year!  In my opinion, an investment in Bal Harbour is akin to buying a “blue chip stock”.  Even during the recent correction it suffered the least, and it appears that it is the first to begin rallying back.

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33154:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-31-19

Sales Volume, when compared over a 2 year period is above average. Listing Volume is also higher than at any time in the prior two years, however, median listing prices have sharply moved higher since July of 2015.  Median listing prices continue to find support at 375k.

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-32-56

33160 – Sunny Isles, Golden Beach & Eastern Shores

HOME…that is what I am proud to call Sunny Isles Beach.  Ever since I was a child and my family would vacation here (when it was still North Miami Beach), I always knew I wanted to live on this little stretch of sand.  Back in those days, this was one of the seediest places in all of Miami-Dade County.  However, in the past 20 years Sunny Isles Beach has seen one of the greatest booms and gentrifications in US History (I am willing to bet).  Where once stood small, dilapidated hotel/motels, now stand massive, high-end towers reaching into the sky.  Where rag tag shops used to litter the shopping centers now stand 3 star or better restaurants and designer boutiques, not to mention the sheet concentration of real estate brokerages here is pretty amazing!

Median Est. Home Value: $352K (Up 3.6%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $225K (Down –9.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 113 (Down –11.7%) / Sales Volume: 97 (Down –32.6%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33160:

Market-Activity-Report_North-Miami-Beach-FL-33160_2016-01-03-17-56-12

Considering where the numbers started when I began blogging the Miami Beach Market Pulse, 33160 appears to have improved somewhat.  Sunny Isles Beach was particularly sensitive to the investment appetites of foreign nationals, and as the Dollar appreciated against every other currency in the world, this led to a drying up of buyers in the general market.  It also exposed foreign buyers to a greater debt load as the dollars they borrowed became more expensive to repay (and this is an ongoing fact that has not fully resolved or come to a head yet).  In addition, a great deal of foreign economies are net commodity exporters; and since commodities of virtually every kind (oil, sugar etc) have crashed, I imagine business is not booming the way it was in the prior decade as commodities soared before and during the mortgage crisis.

Are Prices too High? Miami Beach Real Estate Transaction Volume Plummets!

Miami Beaches Market Activity Summary for  January 2015 through May 2015

While working with my residential customers over the past few months, I noticed something quite alarming about the real estate market on Miami Beach.  Transaction volume (the number of homes sales closed), when compared to last year, is down by as much as  50% when looking at Market Reports for each of the Miami Beach zip codes.

Starting from the legendary South Beach and working north to Sunny Isles and Golden Beach, the data is as follows:

33139 – South Beach – Median Est. Home Value $390K Up 13%; Median Est. Listing Price $217K Down –17%; Median Days in RPR 97 Down –7.6% Sales Volume 109 Down –46.8%  !!!!

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2015-05-12-20-29-24

Given that transaction volume is off by nearly 50%, local Realtors in 33139 must be hurting.  My firm alone closed 4 (soon 5) of those 109 transactions so far this year.

33140 – North Beach – Median Est. Home Value $473K Up 5.1%; Median Est. Listing Price $345K Down –6.8%; Median Days in RPR 106 Up 1%; Sales Volume 60 Down –29.4%

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2015-05-12-20-30-25

33141 – Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands – Median Est. Home Value $261K Up 6.7% Median Est. Listing Price $175K Down –23.7% Median Days in RPR 87 Down –13.9% Sales Volume 80 Down –37.5%

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2015-05-12-20-29-49

33154 – Bal Harbour – Median Est. Home Value $580K Up 9.2% Median Est. Listing Price $395K Down –2.5% Median Days in RPR 102 Down –20.3% Sales Volume 43 Down –36.8%

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2015-05-12-20-29-38

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach & Golden Beach – Median Est. Home Value $349K Up 9.9% Median Est. Listing Price $225K Down –10% Median Days in RPR 98 Down –11.7% Sales Volume 98 Down –49%

Market-Activity-Report_North-Miami-Beach-FL-33160_2015-05-12-20-29-07

In every case, we have home values going up while listing prices are coming down and transaction volume is off by as much as 50% year over year!  This makes me beg the question, have prices gone too far, too fast?  Are we finally at a tipping point where Sellers will begin to come back to Earth with more realistic ideas of their home’s value?  I hope so.

I believe there are a number of factors in play that have led to this tragic decline in sales volume:

1)  The Russian Ruble has lost more than a third of it’s value over the past 12 months and Putin has put capital flight controls into place making it very difficult for Russian Citizens to transfer money out of country.  Further, what money can be transferred out, is now worth significantly less against the dollar.  This is greatly dampened investment out of Russia over the past 6 months as well as the spirits of an innumerable number of Realtors.

RUB to USD Chart
RUB to USD Chart

2)  The world is sliding back into a global recession; some argue that we never actually got out of it in the first place.  Whatever the case, governments in Europe and South America have been making it either more difficult, if not impossible, for their citizenry to take their money overseas.  To make matters worse, our own government levies taxes on Foreign Direct Investment and given that at least 5-10% of all jobs in South Florida are created by foreign businesses opening their doors here, one would question the sanity of our politicians in not making it easier and less expensive to invest here!

3)   With all the new construction is not unimaginable that at least some number of prospective Buyers have decided to buy pre-construction & new construction deals.  These numbers would not flow into the reports as these properties were never listed.

4)  “Prices have genuinely gone too far” seems to be the most logical conclusion!  Limited supply of great location real estate and large demand originating from the “steals” of 2009 to 2012 (mortgage crisis) drove prices for the past several years.  As prices have gone up, however, the pool of available Buyers has shrunk; and those who would have been in the market for a Miami Beach property have either given up, or have turned their eyes to the north such as Hollywood Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach and Deerfield Beach.

For the sake of brevity, I have concluded here.  There are other factors for sure, but I believe I captured the majority of the macroeconomic factors.  I am very interested in any reasonable, rational comments, contributions, & critiques.

Cheers,

Miami Realtor, Realtor of Miami, Miami Real Estate
Christopher J. Lazaro, Miami Beach Real Estate Broker & REALTOR®

T: 1-800-798-9192 x333