*Updated* – The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – 2nd Quarter 2018

Sunrise on Miami Beach
Sunrise on Miami Beach

UPDATED:  Once again my brokerage business and other commitments including working on a NEW version of this blog site have taken substantial priority over my ability to publish the reports in as timely a manner as I would prefer.  As many of you may know, for the last several years my brokerage has maintained a substantial listing portfolio of distressed assets (short sales) throughout Southeast Florida.  What I have observed, in a nutshell, is that it is far more difficult to receive extensions and forestallments from the court, lenders are not as amicable as they once were in their negotiations (even when confronted with an independent general contractor report demonstrating substantial damages to a home they are looking to fetch a retail price for), and a substantial amount of resistance to closing from Sellers who are hopeful the recent upturn in the economy will somehow benefit and save them from having to sell their home and move; my response to the latter is to move on to a new place and start a new chapter in their lives with a property they can afford and do not have a long history of defaulting on.

Below are the usual reports by zip code and each is a snapshot in time as of the beginning of July 2018.  I would also encourage my readers to review the Market Focus report from the Miami Association of Realtors® by clicking here.

To see REAL-TIME Market Reports on most Southeast Florida cities, check out REBroker.Miami’s Market Reports by City.

This re-post is an update to the blog.  I pulled the 3rd Quarter Reports and will be writing my assessment of the data over the coming week.  I am looking forward to completing the newest version of BeachBroker.Miami (some new logo ideas too 😉 ) and launching it for the New Year.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139
Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139

 

Click here to receive the South Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the South Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Sales volume was up nearly 10% year over year with nearly all other data unchanged.  We continue to be in a Buyer’s Market for condominiums and we have transitioned to a Balanced Market from a Seller’s Market in single family homes.

After multi-year declines, it appears 2017 has seen an inflection point occur and Median Sales Price, Sales Volume and Listing Volume have normalized within medium to long-term ranges on the charts.

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL
Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL

 

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Listing Volume continues to flirt with 3-year highs and Sales Volume continues to be rangebound after bottoming in last quarter of 2017.  Median Sales Prices for listed properties hover at just over $1 Million, however, overall Median Sales Prices per Public Records (a much greater data sample) is at $500,000.  Newer and renovated properties are listing and selling for considerably more than their older and less updated equivalents.  This is evident when you look at the distribution of the Age Range of Homes Sold in the Neighborhood Report.

 

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.
An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.

 

Click here to receive the North Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the North Beach Neighborhood Report.

Median Home Values dropped 7.7% year over year as both Median Sales Price and Median Listing Prices also traded to the bottom of their 3-year ranges.  Upon a preliminary analysis, it appears a gentrification is in the process as much older properties are being purchased with either the intent of redevelopment or renovation.  I still stand by my position of the past several years that North Bay Village, specifically, offers one of the greatest values for your money when you consider location, community, and long-term investment outlook.

 

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over Atlantic Ocean
Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over the Atlantic Ocean

 

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Market Report.

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Neighborhood Report.

Listing Volume in Bal Harbour and the 33154 zip code continues to push new highs on the 3-chart as Median Sales Volume and Median Sales Price remain flatlined/rangebound for more than a year (circa 50 Listings and 900K respectively).  Average Time on the market is up over 10% vs the same time period last year while Sales Volume is down 31% compared to the same time period.  The condominium market is weighing heavily on this area as Buyers have pulled back from extraordinary valuations that I cannot see continuing as we head further into a rising interest rate market and a market-wide preference for single-family homes over condominiums.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida's Riviera
Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida’s Riviera

 

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

The Sunny Isles Beach market is percolating with Median List Prices at 3-year highs, Listing Volume at a 3-year High and Sales Volume at the top of its 2-year rangebound channel; however, this is not without consequence; Sales Volume year over year has plunged 15% year over year with average time on the market up nearly 10%.  This is a heavily condominium laden market and Buyers have begun to pull back again as Sellers of existing condominiums pushed prices up to take advantage of the past year’s bounce in existing condo sales; a bounce that I largely attributed to a more robust economy with bargain seekers, averse to purchasing new construction at ridiculously inflated prices, sought to take advantage of the near 4-year slide in existing condo sales and prices.  As interest rates rise I expect to see a further multi-year decline in both price and sales volume.

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

Advertisements

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – September 2017

Hurricane Irma
Hurricane Irma – September 2017

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

Hurricane Irma Strikes!

In prior posts I mentioned noted the long lag between this year and the last hurricane, Hurricane Wilma, we experienced in October of 2005, and that a huge number of people had moved to Southeast Florida who had not previously ever witnessed one of these beasts.  While Miami-Dade & Broward Counties suffered minimal damage, it was nearly 4 weeks before power was restored to all residences and traffic could resume normal patterns.  It will be interesting to see if Hurricane Irma results in a spike in listing volume (or not) as I believed it would.  Fortunately, Miami-Dade did not take a direct hit with this Category 4 Hurricane, at the same time, I was personally witnessing the wrath of this storm’s wind field here in Sunny Isles Beach which was both substantial, and documented with video via my Instagram and Facebook feeds.

The hurricane has most certainly affected sales data so the blips in the trends cannot be fully relied on at this time.  With the “knowing” of the oncoming storm, the resulting mass evacutation, and the effects of several days of being in the storm’s enormous wind field combined with the effects of the aftermath (power outages, blocked roads & cleanup), there is no real telling what September’s data “should have / could have been”.  Rather than make a lot of commentary on September’s data, I am simply going to publish the reports and eliminate the commentary on Sales Volume versus Listing Volume for this month.  Due to delayed reporting, as well, August’s numbers may not be as accurate as we hope and I have gone back to clarify that and adjust the report accordingly (numbers for MLS are due from Realtors by the 15th of the following month to be reported on).  Other than having commented on the Hurricane and it’s potential impact on people wanting to live here or remain living here, there is really nothing else to discuss for the month of September 2017.

See the Miami Association of Realtors® Market Focus Report for September 2017 here.

They did a great job of summarizing the issues caused by Hurricane Irma with respect to the numbers.  The expectation is for trends to resume (or so they say).  Over the following few months it will become more evident as to what, if any, impact the storm has had on the real estate markets of the Miami Beaches and Southeast Florida in general.

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

  ** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

  ** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

 ** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – November 2016 Results

An afternoon on Miami Beach
An afternoon on Miami Beach

Welcome to the November 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse.  In this issue I will be simply laying out the data.  For my latest commentary, forecasts and recommendations, please reference my 3rd Quarter 2016 Market Analysis for the Miami Beaches, which included information on what appears to be a resurgence in the distressed asset market. Additional analysis, explaining the macroeconomic threats & challenges facing the Miami Beaches can be found in my February 2016 Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse and in my 1st Quarter 2016 Analysis of the Miami Beaches Real Estate Market.

My next full length analysese will not be published until early to mid January 2017 when I wrap up the 2016 Retail & Distressed Miami Beach Real Estate Markets in what will be two or three full-length reports covering the data and developments of 2016; and looking forward towards forecasting the 2017 economic year from a real estate broker & investor’s perspective.

 

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $387K, Down -1.5%; Median Est. Listing Price: $150K, Down -42.3%; Median Days in RPR: 126 Down –6.7%; Sales Volume: 73, Down –31.1%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume sets a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

OF NOTE for 33139 (found in the Neighborhood Report):

33139 Median Listing Prices takes a HUGE dive!
33139 Median Listing Prices takes a HUGE dive!  Listing Volume at NEW 3 Year High!

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $534K,  Up 11.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $377K, Down 10.2%; Median Days in RPR: 132, Up 5.6%; Sales Volume: 33, Down –52.9%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high. 

See the Neighborhood Report (above) for full graphs and statistics.  Similar to 33139, this area is seeing a drop in both Sales Volume and Median Listing Price while at the same time seeing a build up in Listing Volume / Available Inventory For Sale.

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-39-38-pm

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $273K, Up 1.9%; Median Est. Listing Price: $198K, Down -17.5%; Median Days in RPR: 102, Down –4.7%; Sales Volume: 56, Down –37.8%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Of Note – Listing Volume continues to spike.  I still believe the best-deals-for-the-location are to be found HERE!!  Call me for more details!

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-31-38-pm

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $668K, Up 4.4%; Median Est. Listing Price: $399K, Down 16.2%; Median Days in RPR: 131, Down –3%; Sales Volume: 20, Down –50%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a NEW 3 year high.

Of Note – Median Listing Price is ALSO at a 3-Year Low:

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-38-05-pm

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $354K, Up 0.4%;  Median Est. Listing Price: $239K, Down 9.8%; Median Days in RPR: 145, Up 10.7%; Sales Volume: 87, Down –31.%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a NEW 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Of Note – Median Listing Price continues to decline!

screen-shot-2016-12-31-at-6-45-23-pm

 It has been a wonderful holiday season and I hope all of you have been enjoying as well.  This is a time for both introspection and giving as we head into a brand new year.  For those who have emailed me in the past several months about NOT providing e

And, let me not forgot:  For those who have emailed me or commented otherwise, in the past several months, about NOT providing enough analysis or data; I have only this to say; “Bitch, PAY ME!”.  My service via this blog is both a hobby and, as I said…a service; which I perform at my leisure.  My vision and goal over 2017 is to expand the usefulness of this website to become a more encompassing resource for people to better get a feel for not only the real estate market, but the growing culture of the Miami Beaches Community.

My next blogs will happen in a series of 3-4 posts before Mid-January.  I wish you all a HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Cheers,

photo
Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA
Licensed Real Estate Broker at Metro International Investments
Direct  1-800-798-9192 Ext. 333         Phone  1-800-798-9192         Mobile  305-878-2288         Fax  305-521-8995         Email  chris@mii.miami         Website  http://www.mii.miami       
“Quality is never an accident; it is always the result of high intention, sincere effort, intelligent direction and skillful execution; it represents the wise choice of many alternatives.”

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse: 2015 Year End Wrap Up – (February 2016 Update)

Miami Beach
Looking across the intracoastal waterway to Miami Beach

The Miami Beaches 2015 Year End Market Analysis

Hello and Happy New Year to All!  I am a little late in publishing this; life & business sometimes gets in the way; but 2015 is now history (as well as January 2016!).  However, data driven bloggers, like myself, and other analysts continue gathering and compiling their numbers (and putting their tax returns together like everyone else 😦  ) to make their reports.  Heck, it takes whole quarters (or more) for our own government to figure out if & when we enter a recession (obviously they are too wealthy for our own good 😉 ).

I pulled the latest & greatest RPR Market & Neighborhood Reports for the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches and present to you the December 2015 versus December 2014 Report.  Here are the results:

33139 – South Beach

While I cannot speak for other agents, my firm saw the most sales activity in South Beach compared to anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.  South Beach continues to have a tremendous allure both nationally and internationally.

Median Est. Home Value: $397K (Up 4.2%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $237K (Down –5.2%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –13.4%) / Sales Volume: 95 (Down –26.9%)

The 33139 Market Activity Report for December 2015:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-40-18

Sales volume continues to decline in year over year comparisons of each month; however, I am noticing signs of an inflection point in that the number of days listed before a property sells has dropped by nearly 14%.  If sales volume in the coming months flattens (by comparison to the prior year’s month being compared) or rises, it could potentially indicate a good time to buy in 33139.  My recommendations are based on long term (for the purposes of this blog); 5-10 years or more.  This blog is not intended (unless I specifically say so in a specific article) for Buy/Flip or Buy/Rehab/Flip strategies to be implemented upon.

December 2015 Neighborhood Report for 33139

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-40-24

Listing Volume (number of homes currently listed for sale) is 50% higher than January of 2013.  This means there is a much greater number of choices available to the buyer.  While oceanside condos are holding steady, a now 13 month long correction in ask prices for homes being listed continues.  In addition, I recall 2 & 3 years ago there not being a large amount of high-end rentals available anywhere on the beaches during the October-April season.  This season I did a quick search on MLS spanning all 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches for rentals that range between $7000 and $10000 dollars per month and found more than 300 of them!  Further analysis is necessary, but I am fairly confident the luxury market is taking a hit too.

33140 – North Beach

I am not quite sure what the problem is with this market but after several thousand dollars in Realtor.com advertising to acquire buyers for this zip code, I have yet to even show a property in this zip code over the past 2 quarters!  As a result I am on the verge of dropping it all together and seeing if I can buy another slot elsewhere.  Perhaps my luck will change?  With that said, here are the December 2015 versus December 2014 numbers:

Median Est. Home Value: $481K (Up 2.1%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $377K (Up 5%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –24.7%) / Sales Volume: 49 (Down –10.9%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33140:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-35

Clearly a rebound is occurring in this area (and I do happen to love the area personally…it just has not been my best zip code this year).  Sales volume has started to flatten (as I mentioned earlier how this might be a good thing) compared to prior month comparisons, where it was off 50% year over year, and the average number of days a property is listed before it sells has plummeted by 25%.  This is great news for Sellers in this market and a potential warning to Buyers who are looking.

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-41

Listing Volume is 50% higher than it was during the same time period in 2013, however, over that same period of time home values and asking prices have remained stable / mostly unchanged.  This is an area that is currently undergoing many changes in terms of both demographics, new construction, and rehabilitation of older buildings.  I believe it represents a great investment opportunity and it is genuinely a very safe, beautiful area to live.

33141 – North Bay Village & Atlantic Heights

This area, in my opinion, represents one of the greatest values anywhere for the location alone.  The median home value is 100,000+ dollars less than ANYWHERE else on the Miami Beaches.  Average Income Families can actually afford to buy and live here!  I think it is grossly undervalued relative to it’s long term (5-10 years) potential.  In addition, it has a wonderful “small town” / “village” feel & appeal.  New construction is on the rise, and that will absolutely, at some point, begat more assemblage deals for the real estate brokers and developers; and ultimately this area will begin to resemble the other 4 zip codes.  My recommendation is to buy, hold/rent and buy often.

Median Est. Home Value: $271K (Up 10.7%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $185K (Down –22.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 95 (Down –18.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Down –38.1%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33141:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-35-11

Once again, listing volumes are over 50% higher than two years prior, sales volume is lower than any time over the past 2 years, and the median listing price is substantially lower, which I attribute to an increase in the number of 1 and 2 bedroom homes in older buildings that quite probably need either rehabilitation or demolition.  I believe this area is two or three real estate cycles from achieving a peak in greatness and desirability; but I would hesitate to call investment here speculation given the values I have personally found, shown and sold in this area (I will not be discontinuing this zip code with Realtor.com if that tells you anything).  To boot, the neighborhood is wonderfully better than it was 10 years ago.  Change is happening; but as we all know in real estate, it happens over years, not days or weeks.

The 33141 Neighborhood Report:

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-35-22

33154 – Bal Harbour

Certainly one of the most desirable zip codes to live in within the continental United States.  Bal Harbour represents the epitome of affluence with a far more conservative appeal than anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.

Median Est. Home Value: $648K (Up 22%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $387K (Down –7.8%) / Median Days in RPR 119 (Down –9.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Up 17.6%)

This is perhaps the best report and comparison I have seen since I began reporting on the beaches just after the market correction began.  33154 has begun to rebound strongly.  Sales Volume is up, Average Number of Days on the Market is down, and the estimated home values have rocketed by 22% in a single year!  In my opinion, an investment in Bal Harbour is akin to buying a “blue chip stock”.  Even during the recent correction it suffered the least, and it appears that it is the first to begin rallying back.

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33154:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-31-19

Sales Volume, when compared over a 2 year period is above average. Listing Volume is also higher than at any time in the prior two years, however, median listing prices have sharply moved higher since July of 2015.  Median listing prices continue to find support at 375k.

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-32-56

33160 – Sunny Isles, Golden Beach & Eastern Shores

HOME…that is what I am proud to call Sunny Isles Beach.  Ever since I was a child and my family would vacation here (when it was still North Miami Beach), I always knew I wanted to live on this little stretch of sand.  Back in those days, this was one of the seediest places in all of Miami-Dade County.  However, in the past 20 years Sunny Isles Beach has seen one of the greatest booms and gentrifications in US History (I am willing to bet).  Where once stood small, dilapidated hotel/motels, now stand massive, high-end towers reaching into the sky.  Where rag tag shops used to litter the shopping centers now stand 3 star or better restaurants and designer boutiques, not to mention the sheet concentration of real estate brokerages here is pretty amazing!

Median Est. Home Value: $352K (Up 3.6%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $225K (Down –9.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 113 (Down –11.7%) / Sales Volume: 97 (Down –32.6%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33160:

Market-Activity-Report_North-Miami-Beach-FL-33160_2016-01-03-17-56-12

Considering where the numbers started when I began blogging the Miami Beach Market Pulse, 33160 appears to have improved somewhat.  Sunny Isles Beach was particularly sensitive to the investment appetites of foreign nationals, and as the Dollar appreciated against every other currency in the world, this led to a drying up of buyers in the general market.  It also exposed foreign buyers to a greater debt load as the dollars they borrowed became more expensive to repay (and this is an ongoing fact that has not fully resolved or come to a head yet).  In addition, a great deal of foreign economies are net commodity exporters; and since commodities of virtually every kind (oil, sugar etc) have crashed, I imagine business is not booming the way it was in the prior decade as commodities soared before and during the mortgage crisis.