The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – May 2016 Edition

South Point & The Miami Beaches
South Point & The Miami Beaches

Hello and welcome back to the Miami Beaches Market Pulse!  For the month of May 2016, I am simply going to publish the data and give a brief summary for each zip code.  I have been working on getting out a Special Edition Report for the month of June and first half of 2016.  It will come next week in two parts; the first will be my standard format comparing year over year data for the prior 30 days, and the Part 2 will be exclusively focused on the Distressed Property Market of the Miami Beaches.  The month of May 2016 has seen the continuation of a correction on the Miami Beaches I first documented May of last year.  In May 2015’s article, I reported (in this article here) a massive drop in year over year Sales Volume (comparing May 2015 to May 2014) for every zip code of the Miami Beaches.  12 Months later, here are the year-over-year (over year) results.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $392K, Up 0.6% | Median Est. Listing Price: $279K, Up 3.9% | Median Days in RPR: 122, Up 9.9% | Sales Volume: 130, Down –24.4%

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume remains near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

Nearly 70% of sales were under 400K; there appears to be “support” (borrowing a term from stock market lingo when referencing stock price charts) at a median sales price of 250K.  At a price per square foot perspective, almost 80% of sales ranged from 200-600 dollars per square foot, almost evenly split between 200-400 per square foot (Class C+ to Class B properties) and 400-600 dollars per square foot (Class B to Class A- properties).  The higher end of the market, 600-1200+ per square foot represents Class A and A+ properties and those accounted for 25% of total sales in the 33139 zip code.  Average time on the market is up nearly 10% and stands firmly at 4 months!

33140 – Mid-Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $495K, Up 4.7% | Median Est. Listing Price: $480K, Up 21.5% | Median Days in RPR: 117, Up 2.6% | Sales Volume: 66, Down –19.5%

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  

The Median Sales Price, it appears, has “double bottomed”, beginning in January 2014 and into March of 2015.  The trend has been higher due to new construction, rehabilitation of existing buildings & units, and (at least in my own experience speaking with people) because they “…want to live on Miami Beach, but NOT on South Beach…”.  The overall market remains week with record listing volume and near-3-year-low Sales Volume.  Average time on the market is nearly 4 months!

Sales Volume is well below average for the season (as well) when compared over the past 3 years, and Listing Volume has etched even higher to a new 3 year high!  Roughly 75% of sales have been less than a $600K sales price, and 66 sales were over $1.2 Million dollars.  Less than one eighth of all sales transactions were between 600K and 1.2 Million dollars.  The bulk of sales ranged between $200 & $500 dollars per square foot. Approximately 10% of all sales were greater than $800 dollars per square foot, and 3% were less than $100 per square foot.

33141 – North Beach & North Bay Village

Median Est. Home Value: $262K, Up 0.4% | Median Est. Listing Price: $265K, Up 15.3% | Median Days in RPR: 102, Up 4.1% | Sales Volume: 74, Down –36.2%

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near 3 year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.

 I have repeatedly said that 33141 offers the best possibly value for anyone, but most importantly the “common man”.  The average pricing, especially considering the location (and that location’s future) is, in my professional opinion, a once-in-a-lifetime deal for someone who wishes to own and/or live in Miami Beach. Listing Volume continues to climb while Sales Volume continues to fall off.   Approximately 60% of all transaction were under 300K.  300-600K accounted for another 18% while residences over 600K  accounted for 20% of total transactions.  50% of all transactions were prices at under $250 dollars per square foot (with approximately half of those being under $200 dollars per square foot), and 40% of all transactions were between $250 & $500 dollars per square foot.  Median Sales price is only edging higher because of newer, higher-end sales which account for approximately 55 of 400 transactions yet were nearly triple the value of 50% of the bulk of transactions.  Considering other than prospective distressed opportunities for acquisition, I believe this area has reached a “floor” in terms of price (+/-10% from the current average median sales price); I would not expect to do better under most circumstances and property conditions.  Average time on the market is 3.5 months.

33154 – Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Islands

Median Est. Home Value: $680K, Up 17.3% | Median Est. Listing Price: $500K, Up 6.4% | Median Days in RPR: 129, Up 0.8% | Sales Volume: 38, Down –39.7%

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.

Bal Harbour and the Bay Harbor Islands are home to a wealthy and exclusive community.  Median Sales Price is near a 3-year low, Average time on the market is just over 4 months, and Listing Volume remains matched with last month’s 3 year high.  Median Listing Price has trended higher in 2016 overall and is currently hovering just about $450K.  Once again, there is an enormous disparity between the different asset classes selling.  Approximately 45% of all sales transactions were under $500K, while 30% were between $500K and $1.1 Million USD.  20% of all sales were over $1.1 Million USD.  More than 60% of transactions ranged between 200 dollars and 500 dollars per square foot.  More than 80% of sales were for 1 and 2 bedroom properties.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Median Est. Home Value: $351K, Up 0.4% | Median Est. Listing Price, $326K, Up 23.1% | Median Days in RPR, 117, Up 6.4% | Sales Volume: 111, Down –26.5%

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3 year low.  Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high.

Do not be fooled by the data!  Median Listing Price is up substantially because of a particular phenomenon that is well documented (by myself and other sources).  New units in new towers are coming online and as much as 20% of these buildings end up listed within a few months of their opening dates, and given that pricing started at circa $1400.00 per square foot in these units (pre-construction pricing), it should be obvious this newer inventory is skewing the data.  So while the Median Listing Price is up over 20%, the Median Estimated Home Value is virtually flat year over year.  What is important is that once again Sales Volume is down substantially, hovering just above a 3 year low, and Listing Volume remains at a 3 year high! Approximately 50% of all sales transactions have been under $400K with the remainder distributed well into the $1 Million+ range.

I live in Sunny Isles Beach, and have done so for nearly 7 years.  There is a wonderful, long-term opportunity here for the affluent family.  Sunny Isles Beach recently completed Gateway Park, an area that will be family-oriented complete with an awesome children’s playground and a theatre for cultural performances; the city is currently in the process of sinking all of the power lines running along the A1A into the ground, and it has also completed several other parks and park renovations, all of which are geared for the entertainment and enjoyment of young families. For a man who is aspiring to be a father one day soon, I believe I am in the right place for what I want.

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a Residential Real Estate Search Website for both Rentals and Purchases!
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BeachBroker.MIAMI Update

Christopher J. Lazaro
An evening in NYC at Ink 48 rooftop bar/lounge.

It has certainly been an interesting 20 days in the world of business!  After my last post, our brokerage absorbed nearly 70 short sale listings from an agent who rejoined my firm after a two year stint going it alone and making it on her own (I am very proud of her!).  In the midst of this activity, and in addition to the usual order & chaos of my own residential & commercial real estate brokerage endeavors, I took a trip to NYC over the coldest weekend on record (-24 degrees F on the night of Saturday the 13th, Feb 2016!!!) to meet with new and existing business associates in the commercial real estate arena.

It is important, I think, to recognize the importance of meeting people in-person.  I have found the Internet has made it difficult, at best, to differentiate a real business player from a fraud; and not not mention there is a big difference from being nothing more than words in an email and/or a voice on the phone than being (to another person) a living, breathing, in-the-flesh businessman who has gone out of his way (leaving the warmth of Miami for the cold of NY; not to mention the expense of NY lol) to meet you, shake your hand and sit down with you over a meal to discuss not just business, but life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

I am happy to say that my business trip was quite an extraordinary experience, and with some people perhaps long overdue.  It pleases me to have had the good fortune to have been able to take the trip and establish what I believe will be long term friendships and business relationships.

Metro International Investments - http://MII.MIAMI
Metro International Investments
http://MII.MIAMI

In tandem with my business trip, work continued on our official brokerage website for Metro International Investments, http://MII.Miami.  My graphic designer, Lorena, created and finalized a fantastic logo (both a square and a rectangle), that I am happy to share with my readers today.  The website itself is up, but still subject to more customizations as we diligently work towards having it clearly convey our message to our target market; the Commercial Real Estate Investor.

The residential real estate aspect of the business is handled mainly by myself and my team of agents.  Our residential real estate MLS website can be found at http://REBroker.Miami.  I am putting my agent’s profiles together now and the site, like most healthy websites, continue to be works-in-progress.  Any and all feedback from customers and industry professionals is welcome!

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!

Additional blog entries can be found (and will be found) on each of these sites as both time and subject matter permits.  I am a strong believer in educating my customers and sharing my experiences so as to empower them to make the best possible decisions for their unique set of needs, wants and goals.

 

BeachBroker.MIAMI
The Broker for the Miami Beaches

 

 

I publish market analysis and other information of interest, mainly regarding the Miami Beaches, at http://BeachBroker.Miami (special thanks to Lorena for the new BeachBroker.Miami logo as well!).  This too is a growing work-in-progress and at some point I believe I will be enlisting the aid of some motivated and talented writers with similar goals to mine.  Until then I remain the sole author of this informational blog and enjoy writing articles for it.  Following the publication of this article will be the next edition of The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – January 2016 versus January 2015; and The Most Expensive Listings of February 2016 on the Miami Beaches.  In fact, I already have an initial draft of February 2016 versus February 2015 in draft and expect to have it out by mid-month.  Beyond the planned publications, I have plans to make accessible other resources to the Miami Beaches that are invaluable.  I will announce each of them as I deploy them.

Well, it is time to complete my latest edition of the Market Pulse; and so I will conclude here and endeavor to get my latest market update published for the coming business week.

Thank you for your readership!  Please contact me with any suggestions, commentary or questions you may have!

Cheers,

Miami Realtor, Miami Real Estate Professional
Christopher Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker.  International Realtor® of Miami

 

BeachBroker.MIAMI’s New Facelift is Completed (mostly)

The New Theme

My Blog has been reborn as BeachBroker.MIAMI, and implies a moniker that I am comfortable with and hope to strengthen as I continue to build my real estate business on Miami Beach & elsewhere!

The new theme for BeachBroker.MIAMI (formerly Real-Estate-of-Miami.com; and former to that, RealtorOfMiami.com) is based on a Magazine Layout Format.  The idea, over the next few months, is to create an authoritative, information rich resource that organizes not only my publications & analyses of the market data for the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches, but provide useful links, documentation, and other resources from known & respected third parties to the general public.  I also seek to further integrate my own social media presences into this site, so as to make it a one-stop-shop to see what is moving & shaking with The Beach Broker ;).

In December I was longing for a change, and wanted to set a new tempo for my business; something that was more fresh and exciting than the usual doldrums of Commercial Real Estate, a major part of my business.  For many years I worked in Corporate America, in New York City.  Even when I had moved to Miami, all I had really done was trade a dark room with computer screens in NYC, for a dark room with computer screens in Miami.  Upon leaving Corporate America to start a real estate business over 4 years ago, I landed in the same dark room, only instead of designing & costing global banking systems, I was researching commercial properties and creating packages & reports for investors.  While I do enjoy this aspect of the business, commercial real estate is not a profession that takes you outside often enough to really enjoy the Sun on your face.  Therefore, I decided to split my time and balance my workload so I could do both commercial real estate, and residential real estate.  For the record, residential real estate is WAY more fun!  I love getting out, meeting new people, seeing new places and discovering new things.  Showing property to prospective buyers is a welcome respite from sitting in an office all day creating commercial real estate packages.

This blog is starting to become a big part of my profession, and my heart and soul.  I love doing market analysis, and using all of the cool toys the Miami Association of Realtors provides it’s agents and brokers to educate the public and facilitate smooth transactions between buyers and sellers.  While I had a very successful career in information technology, I have not looked back and I do not miss it.  I know I made the right choice, and my past couple years of compounding successes continue to remind me of what a great decision I made by following my heart into something that I knew I would love and enjoy.

Please let me know what you think of the new layout!  I will be adding a couple more pages, and posting LOTS more information on properties, markets and neighborhoods over the coming weeks.

Some people have asked me why I have not integrated MLS/IDX listings into this website.  I decided I wanted this to be a site where I had absolute control over the content.  However, I did create a website that is MLS/IDX enabled so customers & clients can browse the local listings – REBroker.MIAMI

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property, pre-construction deals & rentals!

 

I thank you for visiting BeachBroker.Miami and hope you will click the link on the right of the home page to FOLLOW my blog; this way you will automatically be emailed a copy of every analysis I publish on this website.  I hope you find my insights and information useful!

Cheers,

 

Miami Realtor, Realtor of Miami, Miami Real Estate
Christopher J. Lazaro, Miami Beach Real Estate Broker & REALTOR®

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse: 2015 Year End Wrap Up – (February 2016 Update)

Miami Beach
Looking across the intracoastal waterway to Miami Beach

The Miami Beaches 2015 Year End Market Analysis

Hello and Happy New Year to All!  I am a little late in publishing this; life & business sometimes gets in the way; but 2015 is now history (as well as January 2016!).  However, data driven bloggers, like myself, and other analysts continue gathering and compiling their numbers (and putting their tax returns together like everyone else 😦  ) to make their reports.  Heck, it takes whole quarters (or more) for our own government to figure out if & when we enter a recession (obviously they are too wealthy for our own good 😉 ).

I pulled the latest & greatest RPR Market & Neighborhood Reports for the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches and present to you the December 2015 versus December 2014 Report.  Here are the results:

33139 – South Beach

While I cannot speak for other agents, my firm saw the most sales activity in South Beach compared to anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.  South Beach continues to have a tremendous allure both nationally and internationally.

Median Est. Home Value: $397K (Up 4.2%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $237K (Down –5.2%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –13.4%) / Sales Volume: 95 (Down –26.9%)

The 33139 Market Activity Report for December 2015:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-40-18

Sales volume continues to decline in year over year comparisons of each month; however, I am noticing signs of an inflection point in that the number of days listed before a property sells has dropped by nearly 14%.  If sales volume in the coming months flattens (by comparison to the prior year’s month being compared) or rises, it could potentially indicate a good time to buy in 33139.  My recommendations are based on long term (for the purposes of this blog); 5-10 years or more.  This blog is not intended (unless I specifically say so in a specific article) for Buy/Flip or Buy/Rehab/Flip strategies to be implemented upon.

December 2015 Neighborhood Report for 33139

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2016-01-03-20-40-24

Listing Volume (number of homes currently listed for sale) is 50% higher than January of 2013.  This means there is a much greater number of choices available to the buyer.  While oceanside condos are holding steady, a now 13 month long correction in ask prices for homes being listed continues.  In addition, I recall 2 & 3 years ago there not being a large amount of high-end rentals available anywhere on the beaches during the October-April season.  This season I did a quick search on MLS spanning all 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches for rentals that range between $7000 and $10000 dollars per month and found more than 300 of them!  Further analysis is necessary, but I am fairly confident the luxury market is taking a hit too.

33140 – North Beach

I am not quite sure what the problem is with this market but after several thousand dollars in Realtor.com advertising to acquire buyers for this zip code, I have yet to even show a property in this zip code over the past 2 quarters!  As a result I am on the verge of dropping it all together and seeing if I can buy another slot elsewhere.  Perhaps my luck will change?  With that said, here are the December 2015 versus December 2014 numbers:

Median Est. Home Value: $481K (Up 2.1%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $377K (Up 5%) / Median Days in RPR: 110 (Down –24.7%) / Sales Volume: 49 (Down –10.9%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33140:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-35

Clearly a rebound is occurring in this area (and I do happen to love the area personally…it just has not been my best zip code this year).  Sales volume has started to flatten (as I mentioned earlier how this might be a good thing) compared to prior month comparisons, where it was off 50% year over year, and the average number of days a property is listed before it sells has plummeted by 25%.  This is great news for Sellers in this market and a potential warning to Buyers who are looking.

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2016-01-03-20-37-41

Listing Volume is 50% higher than it was during the same time period in 2013, however, over that same period of time home values and asking prices have remained stable / mostly unchanged.  This is an area that is currently undergoing many changes in terms of both demographics, new construction, and rehabilitation of older buildings.  I believe it represents a great investment opportunity and it is genuinely a very safe, beautiful area to live.

33141 – North Bay Village & Atlantic Heights

This area, in my opinion, represents one of the greatest values anywhere for the location alone.  The median home value is 100,000+ dollars less than ANYWHERE else on the Miami Beaches.  Average Income Families can actually afford to buy and live here!  I think it is grossly undervalued relative to it’s long term (5-10 years) potential.  In addition, it has a wonderful “small town” / “village” feel & appeal.  New construction is on the rise, and that will absolutely, at some point, begat more assemblage deals for the real estate brokers and developers; and ultimately this area will begin to resemble the other 4 zip codes.  My recommendation is to buy, hold/rent and buy often.

Median Est. Home Value: $271K (Up 10.7%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $185K (Down –22.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 95 (Down –18.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Down –38.1%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33141:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-35-11

Once again, listing volumes are over 50% higher than two years prior, sales volume is lower than any time over the past 2 years, and the median listing price is substantially lower, which I attribute to an increase in the number of 1 and 2 bedroom homes in older buildings that quite probably need either rehabilitation or demolition.  I believe this area is two or three real estate cycles from achieving a peak in greatness and desirability; but I would hesitate to call investment here speculation given the values I have personally found, shown and sold in this area (I will not be discontinuing this zip code with Realtor.com if that tells you anything).  To boot, the neighborhood is wonderfully better than it was 10 years ago.  Change is happening; but as we all know in real estate, it happens over years, not days or weeks.

The 33141 Neighborhood Report:

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2016-01-03-20-35-22

33154 – Bal Harbour

Certainly one of the most desirable zip codes to live in within the continental United States.  Bal Harbour represents the epitome of affluence with a far more conservative appeal than anywhere else on the Miami Beaches.

Median Est. Home Value: $648K (Up 22%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $387K (Down –7.8%) / Median Days in RPR 119 (Down –9.8%) / Sales Volume: 60 (Up 17.6%)

This is perhaps the best report and comparison I have seen since I began reporting on the beaches just after the market correction began.  33154 has begun to rebound strongly.  Sales Volume is up, Average Number of Days on the Market is down, and the estimated home values have rocketed by 22% in a single year!  In my opinion, an investment in Bal Harbour is akin to buying a “blue chip stock”.  Even during the recent correction it suffered the least, and it appears that it is the first to begin rallying back.

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33154:

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-31-19

Sales Volume, when compared over a 2 year period is above average. Listing Volume is also higher than at any time in the prior two years, however, median listing prices have sharply moved higher since July of 2015.  Median listing prices continue to find support at 375k.

Neighborhood-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2016-01-03-20-32-56

33160 – Sunny Isles, Golden Beach & Eastern Shores

HOME…that is what I am proud to call Sunny Isles Beach.  Ever since I was a child and my family would vacation here (when it was still North Miami Beach), I always knew I wanted to live on this little stretch of sand.  Back in those days, this was one of the seediest places in all of Miami-Dade County.  However, in the past 20 years Sunny Isles Beach has seen one of the greatest booms and gentrifications in US History (I am willing to bet).  Where once stood small, dilapidated hotel/motels, now stand massive, high-end towers reaching into the sky.  Where rag tag shops used to litter the shopping centers now stand 3 star or better restaurants and designer boutiques, not to mention the sheet concentration of real estate brokerages here is pretty amazing!

Median Est. Home Value: $352K (Up 3.6%) / Median Est. Listing Price: $225K (Down –9.6%) / Median Days in RPR: 113 (Down –11.7%) / Sales Volume: 97 (Down –32.6%)

The December 2015 Market Activity Report for 33160:

Market-Activity-Report_North-Miami-Beach-FL-33160_2016-01-03-17-56-12

Considering where the numbers started when I began blogging the Miami Beach Market Pulse, 33160 appears to have improved somewhat.  Sunny Isles Beach was particularly sensitive to the investment appetites of foreign nationals, and as the Dollar appreciated against every other currency in the world, this led to a drying up of buyers in the general market.  It also exposed foreign buyers to a greater debt load as the dollars they borrowed became more expensive to repay (and this is an ongoing fact that has not fully resolved or come to a head yet).  In addition, a great deal of foreign economies are net commodity exporters; and since commodities of virtually every kind (oil, sugar etc) have crashed, I imagine business is not booming the way it was in the prior decade as commodities soared before and during the mortgage crisis.

Are Prices too High? Miami Beach Real Estate Transaction Volume Plummets!

Miami Beaches Market Activity Summary for  January 2015 through May 2015

While working with my residential customers over the past few months, I noticed something quite alarming about the real estate market on Miami Beach.  Transaction volume (the number of homes sales closed), when compared to last year, is down by as much as  50% when looking at Market Reports for each of the Miami Beach zip codes.

Starting from the legendary South Beach and working north to Sunny Isles and Golden Beach, the data is as follows:

33139 – South Beach – Median Est. Home Value $390K Up 13%; Median Est. Listing Price $217K Down –17%; Median Days in RPR 97 Down –7.6% Sales Volume 109 Down –46.8%  !!!!

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33139_2015-05-12-20-29-24

Given that transaction volume is off by nearly 50%, local Realtors in 33139 must be hurting.  My firm alone closed 4 (soon 5) of those 109 transactions so far this year.

33140 – North Beach – Median Est. Home Value $473K Up 5.1%; Median Est. Listing Price $345K Down –6.8%; Median Days in RPR 106 Up 1%; Sales Volume 60 Down –29.4%

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33140_2015-05-12-20-30-25

33141 – Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands – Median Est. Home Value $261K Up 6.7% Median Est. Listing Price $175K Down –23.7% Median Days in RPR 87 Down –13.9% Sales Volume 80 Down –37.5%

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33141_2015-05-12-20-29-49

33154 – Bal Harbour – Median Est. Home Value $580K Up 9.2% Median Est. Listing Price $395K Down –2.5% Median Days in RPR 102 Down –20.3% Sales Volume 43 Down –36.8%

Market-Activity-Report_Miami-Beach-FL-33154_2015-05-12-20-29-38

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach & Golden Beach – Median Est. Home Value $349K Up 9.9% Median Est. Listing Price $225K Down –10% Median Days in RPR 98 Down –11.7% Sales Volume 98 Down –49%

Market-Activity-Report_North-Miami-Beach-FL-33160_2015-05-12-20-29-07

In every case, we have home values going up while listing prices are coming down and transaction volume is off by as much as 50% year over year!  This makes me beg the question, have prices gone too far, too fast?  Are we finally at a tipping point where Sellers will begin to come back to Earth with more realistic ideas of their home’s value?  I hope so.

I believe there are a number of factors in play that have led to this tragic decline in sales volume:

1)  The Russian Ruble has lost more than a third of it’s value over the past 12 months and Putin has put capital flight controls into place making it very difficult for Russian Citizens to transfer money out of country.  Further, what money can be transferred out, is now worth significantly less against the dollar.  This is greatly dampened investment out of Russia over the past 6 months as well as the spirits of an innumerable number of Realtors.

RUB to USD Chart
RUB to USD Chart

2)  The world is sliding back into a global recession; some argue that we never actually got out of it in the first place.  Whatever the case, governments in Europe and South America have been making it either more difficult, if not impossible, for their citizenry to take their money overseas.  To make matters worse, our own government levies taxes on Foreign Direct Investment and given that at least 5-10% of all jobs in South Florida are created by foreign businesses opening their doors here, one would question the sanity of our politicians in not making it easier and less expensive to invest here!

3)   With all the new construction is not unimaginable that at least some number of prospective Buyers have decided to buy pre-construction & new construction deals.  These numbers would not flow into the reports as these properties were never listed.

4)  “Prices have genuinely gone too far” seems to be the most logical conclusion!  Limited supply of great location real estate and large demand originating from the “steals” of 2009 to 2012 (mortgage crisis) drove prices for the past several years.  As prices have gone up, however, the pool of available Buyers has shrunk; and those who would have been in the market for a Miami Beach property have either given up, or have turned their eyes to the north such as Hollywood Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach and Deerfield Beach.

For the sake of brevity, I have concluded here.  There are other factors for sure, but I believe I captured the majority of the macroeconomic factors.  I am very interested in any reasonable, rational comments, contributions, & critiques.

Cheers,

Miami Realtor, Realtor of Miami, Miami Real Estate
Christopher J. Lazaro, Miami Beach Real Estate Broker & REALTOR®

T: 1-800-798-9192 x333