*Updated* – The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – 2nd Quarter 2018

Sunrise on Miami Beach
Sunrise on Miami Beach

UPDATED:  Once again my brokerage business and other commitments including working on a NEW version of this blog site have taken substantial priority over my ability to publish the reports in as timely a manner as I would prefer.  As many of you may know, for the last several years my brokerage has maintained a substantial listing portfolio of distressed assets (short sales) throughout Southeast Florida.  What I have observed, in a nutshell, is that it is far more difficult to receive extensions and forestallments from the court, lenders are not as amicable as they once were in their negotiations (even when confronted with an independent general contractor report demonstrating substantial damages to a home they are looking to fetch a retail price for), and a substantial amount of resistance to closing from Sellers who are hopeful the recent upturn in the economy will somehow benefit and save them from having to sell their home and move; my response to the latter is to move on to a new place and start a new chapter in their lives with a property they can afford and do not have a long history of defaulting on.

Below are the usual reports by zip code and each is a snapshot in time as of the beginning of July 2018.  I would also encourage my readers to review the Market Focus report from the Miami Association of Realtors® by clicking here.

To see REAL-TIME Market Reports on most Southeast Florida cities, check out REBroker.Miami’s Market Reports by City.

This re-post is an update to the blog.  I pulled the 3rd Quarter Reports and will be writing my assessment of the data over the coming week.  I am looking forward to completing the newest version of BeachBroker.Miami (some new logo ideas too 😉 ) and launching it for the New Year.

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139
Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139

 

Click here to receive the South Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the South Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Sales volume was up nearly 10% year over year with nearly all other data unchanged.  We continue to be in a Buyer’s Market for condominiums and we have transitioned to a Balanced Market from a Seller’s Market in single family homes.

After multi-year declines, it appears 2017 has seen an inflection point occur and Median Sales Price, Sales Volume and Listing Volume have normalized within medium to long-term ranges on the charts.

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL
Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL

 

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Mid-Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

Listing Volume continues to flirt with 3-year highs and Sales Volume continues to be rangebound after bottoming in last quarter of 2017.  Median Sales Prices for listed properties hover at just over $1 Million, however, overall Median Sales Prices per Public Records (a much greater data sample) is at $500,000.  Newer and renovated properties are listing and selling for considerably more than their older and less updated equivalents.  This is evident when you look at the distribution of the Age Range of Homes Sold in the Neighborhood Report.

 

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.
An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.

 

Click here to receive the North Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the North Beach Neighborhood Report.

Median Home Values dropped 7.7% year over year as both Median Sales Price and Median Listing Prices also traded to the bottom of their 3-year ranges.  Upon a preliminary analysis, it appears a gentrification is in the process as much older properties are being purchased with either the intent of redevelopment or renovation.  I still stand by my position of the past several years that North Bay Village, specifically, offers one of the greatest values for your money when you consider location, community, and long-term investment outlook.

 

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over Atlantic Ocean
Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over the Atlantic Ocean

 

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Market Report.

Click here to receive the Bal Harbour Neighborhood Report.

Listing Volume in Bal Harbour and the 33154 zip code continues to push new highs on the 3-chart as Median Sales Volume and Median Sales Price remain flatlined/rangebound for more than a year (circa 50 Listings and 900K respectively).  Average Time on the market is up over 10% vs the same time period last year while Sales Volume is down 31% compared to the same time period.  The condominium market is weighing heavily on this area as Buyers have pulled back from extraordinary valuations that I cannot see continuing as we head further into a rising interest rate market and a market-wide preference for single-family homes over condominiums.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida's Riviera
Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida’s Riviera

 

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Market Report.

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach Neighborhood Report.

 

The Sunny Isles Beach market is percolating with Median List Prices at 3-year highs, Listing Volume at a 3-year High and Sales Volume at the top of its 2-year rangebound channel; however, this is not without consequence; Sales Volume year over year has plunged 15% year over year with average time on the market up nearly 10%.  This is a heavily condominium laden market and Buyers have begun to pull back again as Sellers of existing condominiums pushed prices up to take advantage of the past year’s bounce in existing condo sales; a bounce that I largely attributed to a more robust economy with bargain seekers, averse to purchasing new construction at ridiculously inflated prices, sought to take advantage of the near 4-year slide in existing condo sales and prices.  As interest rates rise I expect to see a further multi-year decline in both price and sales volume.

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

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The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – 1st Quarter 2018

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

I trust everyone is having an excellent (and HOT) Summer in Southeast Florida.  I am updating this blog with a half dozen drafts that have been lying dormant in my work queue as I have been otherwise occupied (forthcoming rant post in the works)First quarter this year (2018) saw a bounce in existing Condo Sales throughout the 5 zip codes of the Miami Beaches.  This was expected and it remains to be seen as to whether or not this is a “Dead Cat Bounce” (as they say in the stock market world), or if prices will continue to decline after a 3-4 month rise.  The single-family home market, THROUGHOUT Southeast Florida, remains very strong with a shortage of inventory (and reasonable pricing) constraining sales volume.  Nationally, housing starts began to decline significantly, and this is because National and Local Home Developers are antsy about both rising interest rates (and the Fed’s commitment to such) as well as their newfound (as of 2008-2010) conservatism towards first figuring out where they are in the macro-economic real estate cycle.  Even with a plethora of land lots already with sewer and water in many places (some dating back 1-3 decades and yet still unbuilt throughout the country), the builders are proceeding cautiously in their acquisition of both these “ancient” projects as well as virgin land for development.  No one wants to end up on the short end of a speculative stick.  This gives the appearance, at least here in SE Florida, of a “slowdown” in the housing market, but there is actually no such slowdown in my opinion.  The market is constrained.  Limited availability of affordable inventory is sidelining prospective buyers.  I believe the forthcoming mid-term elections will result in either, a new leg to the housing boom, or a recession; will it be the Capitalists or the Socialists who win the day?  We will see.

While the Miami Beaches continue to be a desired place to live, single-family housing remains out of reach for the majority of Americans; and with the value of the USD remaining where it is, it also remains out of the reach of international buyers; leaving condominium apartments are the only truly affordable vehicle to having an ownership presence in/on the Miami Beaches.

See the Miami Association of Realtors Market Focus Report here >>>>>  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=841wF6LEgUE

The Miami Association of Realtors® is the largest Realtor Board in the United States of America consisting of more than 50,000 members.

Fact/Opinion: Miami is the Nation’s youngest MAJOR city.  Massive investment continues into necessary infrastructure for transportation, water management, waste management, cultural arts, schools, railways, roads, and ports.  If there was ever a place for an investor with a 10-year time horizon, Miami should certainly be on that short list.  

I do not publish commercial real estate data (I get paid for this), but I primarily work with small to large investors in the commercial real estate arena; my specialization is assemblages and re-zoning.  Contact me for my services in this regard.

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139
Looking north from South Point, Miami Beach 33139

 

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33139 Neighborhood Report

For additional Real-Time Real Estate Market Reporting data, see the Miami Beach Market Report page.

 

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL
Mid-Beach & North Beach, Miami Beach FL

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33140 Neighborhood Report

For Real-Time Real Estate Market Reporting data, see the Miami Beach Market Report page.

  

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.
An oasis of neighborhood living in the center of North Biscayne Bay.

 

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33141 Neighborhood Report

For Real-Time Real Estate Market Reporting see the North Bay Village Market Report page.

Looking for a condo to rent or own?  See our Featured North Bay Village Condominiums.

Looking for a home?  See our Featured North Bay Village Homes for sale.

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over Atlantic Ocean
Facing Southwest at Bal Harbour from the over the Atlantic Ocean

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Miami Beach, 33154 Neighborhood Report

For Real-Time Real Estate Market Reporting see the Bal Harbour Market Report, the Bay Harbor Islands Market Report, or the  Surfside Market Report pages.

Looking for a condo to rent or own?  See our Featured Bal Harbour Condominiums, Surfside Condominiums, or Bay Harbor Island Condominiums.

Looking for a home?  See our Featured Bal Harbour Homes for sale, Surfside Homes for sale, or Bay Harbor Island Homes for sale.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida's Riviera
Facing South along the coast of Sunny Isles Beach, Florida’s Riviera

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach, 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the Sunny Isles Beach, 33160 Neighborhood Report

For Real-Time Real Estate Market Reporting see the Sunny Isles Beach Market Report page.

Looking for a condo to rent or own?  See our Featured Sunny Isles Beach Condominiums.

Looking for a home?  See our Featured Sunny Isles Beach Homes for Sale.

 

Coming this week:  I am releasing the 2nd quarter/first half of 2018 results for the Miami Beaches later this week as well as foreclosure data for Miami-Dade & Broward Counties.
About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a quarterly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, useful links, real estate market data & statistics, and downloadable Miami Beach real estate market reports & Miami Beach real estate neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – September 2017

Hurricane Irma
Hurricane Irma – September 2017

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

Hurricane Irma Strikes!

In prior posts I mentioned noted the long lag between this year and the last hurricane, Hurricane Wilma, we experienced in October of 2005, and that a huge number of people had moved to Southeast Florida who had not previously ever witnessed one of these beasts.  While Miami-Dade & Broward Counties suffered minimal damage, it was nearly 4 weeks before power was restored to all residences and traffic could resume normal patterns.  It will be interesting to see if Hurricane Irma results in a spike in listing volume (or not) as I believed it would.  Fortunately, Miami-Dade did not take a direct hit with this Category 4 Hurricane, at the same time, I was personally witnessing the wrath of this storm’s wind field here in Sunny Isles Beach which was both substantial, and documented with video via my Instagram and Facebook feeds.

The hurricane has most certainly affected sales data so the blips in the trends cannot be fully relied on at this time.  With the “knowing” of the oncoming storm, the resulting mass evacutation, and the effects of several days of being in the storm’s enormous wind field combined with the effects of the aftermath (power outages, blocked roads & cleanup), there is no real telling what September’s data “should have / could have been”.  Rather than make a lot of commentary on September’s data, I am simply going to publish the reports and eliminate the commentary on Sales Volume versus Listing Volume for this month.  Due to delayed reporting, as well, August’s numbers may not be as accurate as we hope and I have gone back to clarify that and adjust the report accordingly (numbers for MLS are due from Realtors by the 15th of the following month to be reported on).  Other than having commented on the Hurricane and it’s potential impact on people wanting to live here or remain living here, there is really nothing else to discuss for the month of September 2017.

See the Miami Association of Realtors® Market Focus Report for September 2017 here.

They did a great job of summarizing the issues caused by Hurricane Irma with respect to the numbers.  The expectation is for trends to resume (or so they say).  Over the following few months it will become more evident as to what, if any, impact the storm has had on the real estate markets of the Miami Beaches and Southeast Florida in general.

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

  ** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

  ** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

 ** In the wake of the hurricane, no commentary will be given this month **

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – August 2017 (Updated)

My MLS Website: http://REBroker.Miami is New & Improved!
My MLS Website: http://REBroker.Miami is New & Improved!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

NOTE:  The data for the month of August may be SKEWED due to the impacts of Hurricane Irma.  Typically, numbers are due to be inputted into MLS by Realtors by the 15th of the following month.  Given that power was not restored until well after the 15th (they say the 19th, but I do not believe that is true),  This report and the September report may not reflect the true state of the market in terms of both listing volume and sales volume.

See the Miami Association of Realtors® Market Focus Report video for August 2017 here.

Due to the impacts of the Hurricane, I am withholding commentary (and have removed some previously written commentary) for the Months of August & September 2017.  The October report will be a full report as I typically publish and I will be sure to note any spikes in listing volume etc, perhaps due to the hurricane.  I am also keeping an eye out for surveys of homeowners, as I am interested in knowing what the aggregate general public’s reaction(s) and feeling(s) is/are regarding the hurricane and it’s aftermath.

I have attached the reports.  These may or may not have been affected by the hurricane, but I prefer to be sure about what I am looking at.  Much of the data is relevant of course, what is and has been listed and sales that did occur, and were documented, are properly recorded.

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

 

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

 

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

 

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – July 2017 Results (Updated)

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker
Visit my NEW MLS Website at http://REBroker.Miami!

Market Activity & Neighborhood Reports by Zip Code for the Miami Beaches

I am catching up my blog with July—->October’s results this week into next and apologize for the delay.  I was seriously injured and after a lot of suffering, jumping through Medical Insurance hoops while also navigating a personal injury suit, I had spinal surgery at the end of September and have since been recovering from that surgery.  I am happy to say that I am recovering well, and I am getting back to business.

During the past several months, at least within my brokerage, have been selling like hot cakes.  After an abysmal June in the Miami Beaches condo market, virtually any tick higher in sales can be considered an improvement; although I am still of the position that specifically the luxury & ultra-luxury market will become further depressed until the US Dollar falls further and/or we see some certainty going forward in our immigration policies, specifically those related to the EB-5 Visa, a popular conduit for Foreign Direct Investment into this country.   Overall, in Miami-Dade County, the market saw a substantial improvement versus June.  I know many customers are sitting on their hands until “December 8th, 2017”, at which time President Trump is to make an important decision regarding the EB-5 Visa Program.

Single Family Homes are HOT!  It is a Seller’s Market.  Condominiums are in a Buyer’s Market (not so hot).

See the Miami Association of Realtors® Market Focus Report for July 2017 for Miami-Dade County

I have also made another decision.  At the end of this year, the Miami Beaches Market Pulse will become quarterly (Starting in 2018).  Recent changes in the reporting tools now allow me to go back three months.  By doing so it will free me up for blogging on other subjects and be featuring a greater array of content on BeachBroker.Miami, as well as my new MLS Website, the Metro International Investments company site, and my personal MLS website, REBroker.Miami

Onto the data!

33139 – South Beach & The Venetian Islands

Click here to receive the 33139 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33139 Neighborhood Report

Sales rebounded in 33139 substantially after June’s abysmal, single & low double-digit results but still remain down by over 30% versus the same time period in 2016.  A substantial number of listings expired, a large number of homes have had foreclosure filings placed against them in the past few months, and closed sales seem nicely grouped in the high sub-one million dollar range. Median Estimated Home values have dropped by 5% year over year.

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3 year low.  Listing Volume is near a 3-year low.

33140 – Mid-Beach, Bayshore, Sunset Islands, La Gorce & La Gorce Island

Click here to receive the 33140 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33140 Neighborhood Report

This is a similar but worse report when compared to 33139.  Home values dropped by 4.2% and sales volume is down nearly 80% when compared to the same time period last year.  Listings are on the market for 5% longer than they were last year, meaning it now takes an average of 134 days, nearly 5 months to sell your house in 33140.

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3-year low.  Listing Volume is near a 3-year high.  

33141 – North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores & North Bay Village

Click here to receive the 33141 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33141 Neighborhood Report

Sales Volume is down over 40% versus the same time period in 2016.  I have said this numerous times, I believe there is an excellent opportunity to affordably own in the Miami Beaches in this zip code.  I am a big fan of the area and believe it may be nearing a time when values begin making, what I expect will be, a long advance forward.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3-year low.  Listing Volume is near a 3-year high.

33154 – Bal Harbour, Surfside & Bay Harbor Islands

Click here to receive the 33154 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33154 Neighborhood Report

Sales Volume plunged 40% versus the same time period last year, but July’s numbers were a considerable improvement over June’s.

MLS Sales Volume is near a 3-year low.  Listing Volume is at a 3-year high.

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach

Click here to receive the 33160 Market Activity Report

Click here to receive the 33160 Neighborhood Report

Sales Volume is down 44% versus the same time period last year, but nonetheless, it is a drastic improvement over June 2017’s results.  Listing Volume hovers near a 3-year high (actually, it is near a 6-year high) and while I live in Sunny Isles, and I love Sunny Isles, the drastic overbuilding of this area continues.  Aurora will begin construction soon enough, and expect at least another 2-3 years of right lane closures on the northbound side of A1A; and, now we will have them as well on the southbound side.

MLS Sales Volume is at a 3-year low.  Listing Volume is near a 3-year high.

 

About the Miami Beaches Market Pulse

The Miami Beaches Market Pulse is a monthly market analysis by Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA & Licensed Real Estate Broker, featuring professional commentary, data & statistics, downloadable market reports & neighborhood reports, of the five zip codes of the Miami Beaches: 33139 (South Beach & The Venetian Islands), 33140 (Mid-Beach, the Sunset Islands, Bayshore, La Gorce & La Gorce Island), 33141 (North Beach, Normandy Isle, Normandy Shores, North Bay Village), 33154 (Surfside, Bal Harbour & Bay Harbor Island), 33160 (Sunny Isles Beach, Eastern Shores & Golden Beach).

Special Issue: The Miami Beaches Market Pulse – March 2016 & 1st Quarter Analysis

Miami Beach
Miami Beach

Hello everyone and thank you for visiting my blog!  I am in the process of catching the blog up (3 months of data collected so I will be making several posts this week and next to bring the blog current).  My focus over the past few months has been largely dedicated to servicing my customers, clients and, especially, my agents in achieving their goals.  We recently hit an in-house brokerage record of 85 listings on the MLS!  Go Team!  Today, I finally resolved to make some time to get back to one of my passions; reporting on the real estate markets of the Miami Beaches.

As we closed the first quarter there was a noticeable shift (largely negative) in the media’s coverage regarding the Miami Beaches and Downtown Miami Real Estate Markets.  Despite the optimism we (my firm) were feeling after a largely successful quarter, what appears to be a spike in distressed real estate activity signaled, to me, the coming to fruition of a prediction I made in late 2013 and going into 2014; a bearish real estate market driven by an appreciation in the US Dollar relative to virtually every other currency in the world.  While I am not inclined to believe there will be another “crash” per se (unless we have a currency crisis or some other major event like the mortgage crisis of 2008), macroeconomic activity over the past 24 months has shifted us from a Seller’s Market into what is now clearly a Buyer’s Market.  In my prior article (the February Edition of the Miami Beaches Market Pulse), I referenced several reasons we have seen an ongoing correction, as well as potential threats to the real estate market. I firmly believe a correction in numerous markets is firmly in place and will not finish correcting until listing prices drop sufficiently for sales volume to increase in a manner that will bring the overall market back into equilibrium.  The Miami Beaches, as a whole, may be at or near an inflection point as I am seeing year-over-year data that is far less horrible than the prior year’s year-over-year data.

Fortunately, the Miami Beaches, the City of Miami, and Miami-Dade County as a whole possess a larger & longer-term story than just the short-term ups and downs of the real estate markets.   Numerous areas of the County are growing by leaps and bounds, and the imbalances in the Downtown Miami & Miami Beaches real estate markets will, ultimately resolve.  What imbalances you might ask?  Well, others have written about this (specifically regarding the Downtown Miami market) with data they have gathered so I will not go into a dissertation, however, I will say that it really does seem like half the buildings are empty year round!  A good article that goes into this subject can be found here:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jj-colagrande/panama-papers-reveal-miam_b_10030094.html.

As the article points out, this has led to numerous restaurants and businesses closing, all because the anticipated cash flow from having reasonably occupied neighborhoods never happened (this is usually the problem of making projections based on assumptions rather than actual knowledge).  As a result, businesses that opened over the past few years faced a stark reality of having opened in, albeit a brand new, mostly abandoned neighborhood which continues to suffer from a ludicrous level of traffic resulting from all the ongoing construction.  The Miami Beaches, also populated with substantially vacant towers, does not suffer nearly as much because the beaches are a vacation destination and therefore the local businesses benefit from a continuous inflow of cash from vacationers as well as locals; more so than the Downtown Miami (and other) areas of the County.

With that said, I want to refute the negativity I have been seeing regarding the “Doom & Gloom” articles circulating in many papers & trade journals; at least as far as the Miami Beaches are concerned. For the past year I have been discussing a correction in the market and this by no means should be construed as “The sky is falling”.  Corrections are healthy for a market!  In our most recent “blip” (when compared to 20 years), we had and still have a number of factors impacting MLS related sales such as:

  1.  A global currency meltdown relative to the value of the Dollar. (It cannot be understated how much the Miami Beaches benefited from Foreign Direct Investment)
  2. Massive amounts of pre-construction & new construction sales.  This absolutely punishes the sales of existing homes and the related data leading Buyers into thinking they can “catch the bottom of the market”, so they wait and eventually miss the opportunity all together.
  3. Finally!  An uptick in interest rates!  With any luck they will keep rising!  There are still far too many overvalued assets / unrealistic Sellers.  If that were not true, there would not be such a massive (and growing) glut of luxury real estate, both For Rent & For Sale, pouring onto the market.
  4. Regular debate, even still, over how our government intends to screw up or even completely abolish a good thing (Mortgage Interest Tax Deductions).
  5. Tight/Tighter credit despite low interest rates (done by the government to artificially re-inflate home prices)
  6. A trickle of foreclosures (REOs) and a painfully slow short sale process (another government induced strategy to inflate & maintain home prices).  Much of this should have been long resolved by now but rather than let the Free Market takeover, all they have succeeded in doing is prolonging the pain and creating other imbalances in the market with consequences still yet to come.

In this article I am going to demonstrate that the real estate market (so far as the Miami Beaches are concerned) are actually more robust, from a Sales Volume Perspective, now than they were prior to the mortgage crisis.  Pundits will of course argue that the numbers are overinflated by speculative overbuilding and a corresponding demand from overseas shell corporations (a term now synonymous with “Panama Papers”) to hide/park money; but I know from living & working here for the past 14 years that Miami is quickly emerging as a cultural & business epicenter of the world.  So long as that fact & corresponding trend remains true, even if the overseas holding companies have to dump or otherwise liquidate the thousands of vacant units darkening our towers, prices will only correct to a point where real, living, breathing & working people will fill those vacant apartments because they want to live here, work here, start businesses here and raise a family here.  Naturally, there would be the inevitable next wave(s) of speculation as well, both on the way down and on the way back up.

Typically, I only publish the MLS Data in these Market Pulse Reports.  This month, I wanted to educate everyone’s perspective on the subject of Sales Volume (and build upon where I was going in the above paragraph).  In this report I provide the total sales for 1st Quarter of each year since 2000 for all 5 zip codes.  Additional reports like this, with even greater detail & metrics, will follow over the coming year.

Reports by Zip Code

33139 – South Beach

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value $391K Down –0.3% | Median Est. Listing Price $279K Up 1.5% | Median Days in RPR 119 Down –7% | Sales Volume 126 Down –11.3%

33139 – March 2016 Market Activity Report  –  Of Note:  Overall Sales Volume is down 11.3% from March of last year.  Average listing requires 3.75 months to sell.

33139 – Neighborhood Report -(based on 6 months of data) Of Note:  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high at just over 3000 listings on the market!  Greater than 70% of homes sold ranged from $200-$600 per square foot.

All (total) Real Estate Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 93

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 104

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 129

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 191

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 230

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 410 (the 2005 real estate market is often equated to the 1999 stock market)

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 280

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 235

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 273

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 206

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 295

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 373

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 463

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 567

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 648

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 743

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 662  – Sales Volume, although off by approximately 10% from the same period last year, is still approximately 50% higher than it was at the height of the market in 2005.  We are still pretty far from the sky falling!

33140 – North Beach

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $489K, Up 7% | Median Est. Listing Price: $458K, Up 22% | Median Days in RPR: 117, Down –14.6% | Sales Volume: 69, Up 38%

33140 – Market Activity Report – Of Note:  Strong year over year bounce in existing sales and listed new construction.  Nearly a 15% drop time on the market.  Median Home Value up a solid 7%.  Median Listing Prices are up over 20%!

33140 – Neighborhood Report -(based on 6 months of data) Of Note:  Listing Volume at a 3 year high, just under 1500 listings across the zip code.  Roughly 50% of all homes sold were under $400,000 USD.  Roughly 70% of all homes sold for between $200-$500.00 per square foot.  At least 50% of all homes sold were under 1400 square feet.  Just under 50% of all homes sold were between 40 & 50 years old.

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 88

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 95

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 116

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 103

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 128

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 237 (the 2005 real estate market is often equated to the 1999 stock market)

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 139

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 121

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 183

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 113

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 183

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 207

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 255

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 283

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 271

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 365

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 328 – Sales Volume, although off an approximate of 10% from the same period last year, is still approximately 40-50% higher than it was at the height of the market in 2005.  We are still pretty far from the sky falling!

33141 – North Bay Village

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $271K, Up 9.3% | Median Est. Listing Price: $253K, Up 7.7% | Median Days in RPR: 106, Down –11.7% | Sales Volume 72, Down –10%

33141 – Market Activity Report – Of Note: Median Estimated Home Values up nearly 10% year-over-year!  Listing Prices are trending higher.  Average time on the market is 3 1/2 months.  Sales volume continues to trend lower but is starting to flatten.

33141 – Neighborhood Report -(based on 6 months of data) Of Note:  Listing Volume at 3 year high at just over 1500 listings.  Over 50% of all listings sold for under $300,000 USD; while 25% of all homes sold closed at over $600,000 USD.  Two-Thirds of all homes sold were priced at under $300.00 per square foot (I continue to think 33141 is the BEST deal on the beaches going!) with more than half of those under 200.00 per square foot!  Approximately 75% of all homes sold were under 1400 square feet.  363 of the 400+ homes sold were more than 20 years old with 140 of them being greater than 60 years old!

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 43

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 67

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 84

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 62

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 124

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 222 (the 2005 real estate market is often equated to the 1999 stock market)

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 135

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 113

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 115

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 126

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 158

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 210

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 264

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 342

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 335

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 373

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 415  – Sales Volume is a a record high for the zip code for Q1 compared over any year in the last 17 years!  One reason for this is venture capitalists are teaming up with brokers to buy up the, largely, 50-90 year old homes and apartment buildings in the area with the intent to demolish and build anew.  This represents a substantial shift in the future of North Bay Village and 33141 in general.  If there was EVER a time to buy there, it would be right now!

33154 – Bal Harbour

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $684K. Up 23.2% | Median Est. Listing Price: $499K, Up 8.5% | Median Days in RPR: 118, Down –8.5% | Sales Volume: 33, Down –43.1%

33154 – Market Activity Report – Of Note:  Median Estimated Home Values are up a whopping 23% and Listing Prices are on the rise while the average time on the market is trending lower.  Sales Volume, however, is off by more than 40% over the same period last year.

33154 – Neighborhood Report – (based on 6 months of data)  Of Note:  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high! There are extremes in the price ranges of homes sold with more than a third of the homes selling for less than $500K, roughly a third selling between $500K-$1M and the remainder selling for over $1M.  Price per square foot metrics are nicely distributed across all price ranges.  The bulk of homes sold are over 30 years old

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 54

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 47

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 68

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 69

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 75

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 83

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 71

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 54

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 104

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 69

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 111

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 122

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 404  (bulk real estate & strategic purchases by well capitalized groups account for this major boost)

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 198

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 171

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 271

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 207

33160 – Sunny Isles Beach

March 2016 versus March 2015 – MLS Data Only

Median Est. Home Value: $352K, Up 2% | Median Est. Listing Price: $300K, Up 11.7% | Median Days in RPR: 111, Down –12.6% |

Sales Volume: 123,  Down –8.9%

33160 – Market Activity Report –  Of Note:  Given how drastic I have seen the numbers in Sunny Isles Beach bounce around for the past few years, I consider this to be a fairly flat/stabilized comparison.  For the better part of last year this particular zip code read a lot like a Stock Market Crash Horror Story (see the May and October 2015 reports)

33160 – Neighborhood Report (based on 6 months of data) – approximately 50% of all sales were under $400K with another 25% selling for over $1M.  Listing Volume is at a 3 year high.  Median Listing Values have risen to their highest level in 3 years.

All Sales Data per Miami-Dade County Tax Records

1st Quarter 2000 Sales Volume: 117

1st Quarter 2001 Sales Volume: 168

1st Quarter 2002 Sales Volume: 156

1st Quarter 2003 Sales Volume: 233

1st Quarter 2004 Sales Volume: 273

1st Quarter 2005 Sales Volume: 363

1st Quarter 2006 Sales Volume: 245

1st Quarter 2007 Sales Volume: 253

1st Quarter 2008 Sales Volume: 280

1st Quarter 2009 Sales Volume: 270

1st Quarter 2010 Sales Volume: 384

1st Quarter 2011 Sales Volume: 479

1st Quarter 2012 Sales Volume: 534

1st Quarter 2013 Sales Volume: 597

1st Quarter 2014 Sales Volume: 595

1st Quarter 2015 Sales Volume: 625

1st Quarter 2016 Sales Volume: 733 (Freshly at a 17 year high overall)

Commentary

As you can readily see, over the past 17 years the total number of sales (Sales Volume) has steadily increased because of the economic development & growth on the beaches.  The same data, when looked at more granularly, can even tell you who to buy next door too 😉

Granted, we are comparing simply the 1st quarter of each of these years, and that at the very least, the early 2000s were “seasonal” on the Miami Beaches.  However, those of you who also live, work & drive here know there is no such thing as an “off season” anymore; and we can all agree there are a great deal more residences on the beaches as well.

While I am perceiving a Buyer’s Market in the luxury arena (more than anywhere else), it should also be noted that the Miami Beaches are a faster moving market than many, if not most.  Fluctuations in the currency markets directly impact the perceived value(s) of Miami Beach Real Estate, and while the real estate market moves slowly, the currency markets can turn on a dime.  For example, I would wager that if the Federal Reserve does not continue its hawkish stance (continue to raise interest rates), the Dollar will tank and overseas currencies will once again pour in like a tsunami over Southeast Florida.  Vice versa, continuing on the current path of rising interest rates will ultimately lead to lower home prices (because mortgages become more expensive).

It would be interesting to see Sales Volume as a function of overall available capacity of salable real estate.  That would, amongst other things, just how much of a “correction” there has actually been relative to other time periods.  Another thing to put on my “to do list” for future publications….but I digress…

More to come over these next couple of weeks!  I will be more brief in my next couple of Market Pulse Editions…I have been thinking I should stick to quarterly BIG articles, and limit the others.  Let me know if you have any feedback 🙂

Cheers,

Christopher J. Lazaro, MBA

Licensed Real Estate Broker

 

BeachBroker.MIAMI’s New Facelift is Completed (mostly)

The New Theme

My Blog has been reborn as BeachBroker.MIAMI, and implies a moniker that I am comfortable with and hope to strengthen as I continue to build my real estate business on Miami Beach & elsewhere!

The new theme for BeachBroker.MIAMI (formerly Real-Estate-of-Miami.com; and former to that, RealtorOfMiami.com) is based on a Magazine Layout Format.  The idea, over the next few months, is to create an authoritative, information rich resource that organizes not only my publications & analyses of the market data for the 5 zip codes constituting the Miami Beaches, but provide useful links, documentation, and other resources from known & respected third parties to the general public.  I also seek to further integrate my own social media presences into this site, so as to make it a one-stop-shop to see what is moving & shaking with The Beach Broker ;).

In December I was longing for a change, and wanted to set a new tempo for my business; something that was more fresh and exciting than the usual doldrums of Commercial Real Estate, a major part of my business.  For many years I worked in Corporate America, in New York City.  Even when I had moved to Miami, all I had really done was trade a dark room with computer screens in NYC, for a dark room with computer screens in Miami.  Upon leaving Corporate America to start a real estate business over 4 years ago, I landed in the same dark room, only instead of designing & costing global banking systems, I was researching commercial properties and creating packages & reports for investors.  While I do enjoy this aspect of the business, commercial real estate is not a profession that takes you outside often enough to really enjoy the Sun on your face.  Therefore, I decided to split my time and balance my workload so I could do both commercial real estate, and residential real estate.  For the record, residential real estate is WAY more fun!  I love getting out, meeting new people, seeing new places and discovering new things.  Showing property to prospective buyers is a welcome respite from sitting in an office all day creating commercial real estate packages.

This blog is starting to become a big part of my profession, and my heart and soul.  I love doing market analysis, and using all of the cool toys the Miami Association of Realtors provides it’s agents and brokers to educate the public and facilitate smooth transactions between buyers and sellers.  While I had a very successful career in information technology, I have not looked back and I do not miss it.  I know I made the right choice, and my past couple years of compounding successes continue to remind me of what a great decision I made by following my heart into something that I knew I would love and enjoy.

Please let me know what you think of the new layout!  I will be adding a couple more pages, and posting LOTS more information on properties, markets and neighborhoods over the coming weeks.

Some people have asked me why I have not integrated MLS/IDX listings into this website.  I decided I wanted this to be a site where I had absolute control over the content.  However, I did create a website that is MLS/IDX enabled so customers & clients can browse the local listings – REBroker.MIAMI

REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property & rentals!
REBroker.MIAMI is a residential real estate search site for property, pre-construction deals & rentals!

 

I thank you for visiting BeachBroker.Miami and hope you will click the link on the right of the home page to FOLLOW my blog; this way you will automatically be emailed a copy of every analysis I publish on this website.  I hope you find my insights and information useful!

Cheers,

 

Miami Realtor, Realtor of Miami, Miami Real Estate
Christopher J. Lazaro, Miami Beach Real Estate Broker & REALTOR®